저자: JeffreyGundlach · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 정치 양극화와 재정 악화가 시장 불확실성을 키우며, 대만 리스크와 미국 부채 문제가 장기적 위험 요인이다. 2024 대선: 제3당 또는 대선 후보 과반 미달(하원 회부) 가능성이 과거보다 크게 높다고 봄. 양당 내부 분열이 원인이며, 이 경우 시장에 큰 불확실성이 된다고 강조. 미국 정치·사회: 과거 양당이 큰 차이 없이 운영되다 트럼프 등장 이후 사회 균열이 드러남. 이민·펜타닐 문제 방치를 두고 정치권의 의도를 의심하며 구체적 해법은 제시하지 않음. 지정학·대만: 우크라이나 전쟁으로 무기 재고가 소진되어 대만 방어 능력이 약화될 수 있으며, 중국의 대만 장악이 가장 큰 리스크라고 봄. 다만 특정 시점의 발생 시기는 단정하지 않고 향후 10년 관점으로 언급. 재정·부채: 제로금리 시기에는 이자 부담이 낮았으나 현재 이자 비용이 전년 대비 약 6000억 달러 증가. 연준 점도표 수준까지 금리가 오르면 이자 부담이 8000억 달러 수준으로 늘 수 있다고 언급. 부채한도는 막판에 해결될 가능성이 크나 장기화되면 위험자산에 문제가 될 수 있다고 봄. 금리·채권: 정부가 금리 사이클상 잘못된 시점에 차입하고 있다는 Jim Grant의 분석에 동조. 일본 부채 급증을 카나리아 신호로 제시하고 엔화 약세 및 일본은행 총재 교체(4월)에 주목. 중국: 중국 정부가 자본시장에 적대적인 태도를 보였고 최근 재개방 국면에서 중국 인터넷 ETF(KWEB)는 2년 범위 하단 20~25% 수준에 머물러 회복이 더딤. 출연자 전망: 정치·재정 리스크가 장기적으로 부각될 것이라는 견해이며, 단기 가격 방향에 대한 명확한 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
um all right our executive editor Brian says he got a chance to sit down with double line founder and CEO Jeffrey gunlock and an exclusive interview yesterday they discussed well they discussed a lot everything from the 2024 election to the impact of the debt ceiling I love this tweet and very informative as always on January 17 uh 17th of last year you said the 2024 presidential election is barreling down the tracks fasten your seat belts take us through some of your thinking uh as it pertains to the markets as we head into that event well it's too early now way too early for the markets to be focusing in on this but I've been predicting for quite some time that we're not far away from a presidential election that nobody wins The Electoral College in other words it'd be three parties and it looks like 2024 could be it's not it's not the odds on probability but it's far greater than it's been in a while ever since maybe Ross Perot or something like that and it's because the parties don't exist anymore you know the the Republicans have been fighting since Trump showed up on the scene and that hasn't stopped and now the the Trump supporters are yelling at each other that they're starting to hate each other and on the other side I mean you've got uh this radical part of the party which has dominated much of the agenda and they've got all these really old people that just won't give it up and I I think that the the embedded supporters of the old people will be fighting with the younger generation and that could lead to a three-party or even a four-party type of a situation so that would be a real problem if it got thrown into the House of Representatives I imagine a big problem for markets sure I mean because it's markets don't like uncertainty and you know we've had over this 40-year falling interest rate period and fed to the rescue and all that you know we've had sort of a one-party system I mean there wasn't much difference between the bushes and uh Clinton and Obama it really wasn't much difference and then Trump showed up and he forced a difference and it revealed you know um Discord underneath the surface of American society and it hasn't gotten any better obviously all you have to do is read the news if you have read two opposing news sources and it's clearly they're watching two different movies and uh this is and you know I hear politicians using the word like America needs a divorce and then the old people say no no we just need marital therapy we need counseling we don't need divorce I I think counseling usually doesn't work so uh I think I think politics are a pretty big issue and it and there's a lot of radical tax proposals of of you know tax the rich and all that and then you know what what do we do and why why are we not uh why are we not taking on fentanyl why why do we have all this tons and tons of fentanyl coming in over the southern border why don't they stop it why doesn't the political establishment stop it the only possible reason is because they don't want to which begs the question unfortunately why don't they want to and there's all kinds of of crack ball theories about that you know they're looking for constituents to vote for them that I that I find to be a very poor strategy maybe they're doing it but I don't think it will work what's to guarantee they're going to vote for them you know and some people you know think that they're you know they're they're getting money from the cartels there's all kinds of weird theories I know I have no idea uh I can't even handicap what the correct answer is but they don't want to stop it and this is a real problem and we also we we seem to want to be perpetually at War the proxy wars primarily without America with American soldiers either on the periphery or not really getting shot at or now in Ukraine we're just dumping tons and tons of money so I I really think you said what's the one of the biggest risks I don't know if it's a risk for this year or not the months ahead but I think China taking over Taiwan is a very significant risk um it's they love the fact I'm sure that we are destroying a lot of our munitions in defense of Ukraine which obviously depletes our ability to arm Taiwan so they'd love us to blow up all our stuff in Ukraine and so that that balloon coming over there's a lot of odd things going on that one should to think that the risk of a greater escalation of of hostilities is the odds on case well let's stay on that on the war topic we are coming up against the the one-year I wouldn't say anniversary Mark of the star that Russia Ukraine war markets have seemed to put this in the rear view mirror do they need to put it back I don't think in front of mind I don't think your Ukraine war is really the problem the Ukraine war is a problem for the future because we're depleting our Munitions and we're wasting money on it which is just another piece of the the whole budget problem I think taiwan's the bigger problem because we have not been very good at articulating a stance on Taiwan except off the cuff President Biden has said we're going to defend Taiwan he said so so so will you come to defend Taiwan he said yes that's that's the that's the commitment we made I don't think we have the ability to do that where are we going to get the money from we don't have any money we're running a huge budget deficit it's still a massive percentage of GDP and don't forget that zero interest rates really helped keep that deficit down because you were funding the deficits at nearly zero interest rates now we're talking about 600 billion greater interest payments this year than last year that's a lot and what if the FED actually does go to their Dot Plot of five and a quarter and the market now says it might be five and a half well that's just that's going to make it 800 billion or something like this this is real money and so that's just going to make the the difficulty of dealing with the debt ceiling that you referenced earlier and the deficit problem obviously that much worse uh Jim Grant and Grant's industry Observer it was funny I I had been thinking about this and talking about it and I hadn't communicated with Jim Grant and all of a sudden his last essay his last publication of 2022 the lead essay was on this topic of the government is now uh in the wrong part of the interest rate cycle with borrowing costs going up and I read it and I said this guy's been reading this guy read my mind I mean it was almost a Verbatim of course he writes it better than I can articulate myself but he his points were exactly Point by point in the order that I was thinking about them and that that made me think you know what this issue is actually starting to get a reality in people's real time you know formulation of policy and so I think that's a big issue and it's it's going to be a major I think it's going to be a major point for the 2024 election so we'll see if that I making a lot of money in the bond market Bond King Bond King well the after after Bill gross he he became the the de facto Bond King but like so it's difficult for me to know if these political predictions and therefore implications for the debt of the United States which is of course the bond market are going to be true or not yes but it you got to wonder so a couple different uh places that could come from is this some A-list uh celebrity from Hollywood just uh spouting up political views Noah but is it possible he's talking his book absolutely so you know if there's money involved you question the motives of somebody but uh is is he talking his book in a way that's being disingenuous I don't think so um I mean I will also say that there have been Market participants for a long time who have been flagging with alarm the U.S debt to GDP and it hasn't proven to be a problem yet that's not to say it won't eventually but they've been talking about it for a long time and Japan is a canary and the coal mine we've seen their uh debt to GDP just absolutely explode and plus the weakening Yuan uh very going to be very interesting to see what happens with Japan this year because they had they're a central Banker their Chief uh Kuroda is out in April and so I think that's kind of a template for what happens here the debt ceiling yeah it's going to get resolved probably at the last minute is it going to cause some problems in the risk markets if it's dragged on too long yes I'm concerned about Taiwan as well over the next decade I don't know if I who can say when it rears its head but we've seen the animosity that the Chinese government has towards the capital markets they like them right now because they're trying to reopen but two years ago they were shutting the door on Dede all the new investors they just slam the door not on Didi Alibaba they killed these stocks they're finally coming back but just a little you look at K Webb the Chinese internet TF it's just a fraction still in the bottom 20 25 percent of uh its two-year range so I don't I I don't know how this plays out it's going to take a while that's that's the conclusion for now
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