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팔란티어 실적 발표 후 주가가 15% 이상 급락했으나, 발표자는 Rule of 40 점수 57, 미국 상업 매출 40% 성장, AIP 부트캠프 효과를 근거로 팔란티어가 AI 수혜 기업이라고 주장. 애널리스트 Rishi Jaluria(RBC)의 과대평가·5달러 목표가 발언을 반박하며 MS, 엔비디아를 상위에 둠. 팔란티어를 자신의 종목 순위 9위에서 한 단계 상승시킴.
다듬은 글
paler is one of the most powerful AI companies in the world because they build some of the most powerful AI Platforms in the world Apollo Gotham Foundry and AIP but paler stock crashed hard after their most recent earnings call going down by over 15% in the last week alone and with such a sharp decline there's really only one question left to ask was this the top for paler stock or is Wall Street missing something big keep walk through paler latest earnings results and show you what Wall Street analysts are missing when they cover them I'll highlight Some solid resources to learn more about paler platforms and I'll update where paler is on my list of stocks to get rich without getting lucky all right let's start with paler earnings I actually wasn't planning on covering paler earnings at all since there's already so much great content out there but then I saw this quick clip from Yahoo finance shares of Palante sliding after hours after reporting first quarter earnings despite the company beating on the top line and raising its full year guidance they raised their forecast for annual revenue initial pop but now we're down here about 9% in the after hours what is going on here um I I would say it's a combination of a couple things right it's it's high expectations because this has become a a hyped or in my opinion overhyped uh generative AI you know beneficiary company and then at the same time you see uh us commercial decelerating you know last quarter they put up 70% us commercial growth now they're growing us commercial 40% the compare itself just gets a little tougher I think that 70% commercial number that they posted last quarter was maybe boosted by just a very very easy compare and some one-time uh impacts government agencies are actually looking to reduce their dependency on paler and maybe multis sourcing use multiple vendors and so I think there actually could be a little bit of mixed results in the government business over the next couple years um you know I will also say you know the the government business is probably the stickier better quality business for paler but it's not a high growth business and I think that's why they don't emphasize it nearly as much as they do the US Commercial Business rousi Jura is a software Equity Analyst at RBC capital and according to him paler is an overhyped software company and he has a $5 price Target on the stock that one of my biggest issues with the mainstream Finance media is that they never fact check what analysts are saying or really push back on specific points let me show you the big difference between how they're covering paler earnings and what was actually said on the earnings call I think it is fair to say we crushed q1 in the US uh we are on fire you see it in the deal uh deal growth in the US uh growing from 70 to 136 in a year um you see it in the general General enthusiasm uh around our products especially in commercial but also in government which has begun to re accelerate you see it in general in our our customer growth in uscom which grew 69% uh and again we are growing these numbers while maintaining a rule of 40 score 57 which basically means we're doing the impossible we built software infrastructure that allows Enterprises both commercial and government to move Beyond chat move Beyond self-pleasuring to actually produce things that are valuable I'll get back to that self-pleasuring thing a little later in the video uh I'll get back to how paler helps Enterprises get real value out of large language models a little later in the video but since there's such a huge difference in how Alex karp and Yahoo finance are talking about paler latest earnings let's dive into that first starting with this whole rule of 40 thing uh and again we are growing these numbers while maintaining a rule of 40 score or 50 7 which basically means we're doing the impossible because price to earnings ratios can be so misleading for early stage SAS companies the rule of 40 was created as another quick metric to evaluate them even with a high pric earnings ratio a SAS company could still be fairly valued if their growth rate plus their profit margins are greater than 40 paler rule of 40 score is 57 because their revenue grew by 21% year-over-year and their adjusted operating margins were 36% for the quarter which by the way is a whopping 50% increase year-over-year as well that shows a lot of financial discipline for a company that achieved operating profitability just 5 quarters ago so 21% Revenue growth plus 36% operating margins equals a rule of 40 score of 57 but is that good is it bad well instead of guessing I found a list of SAS companies and their scores so let's walk through it together Splunk which just got acquired by Cisco for $28 billion has a rule of 40 score of 56 Adobe has a score of 52 crowd strike and Salesforce both have a score of 40 uipath has a rule of 40 score of 36 Shopify and Dropbox are both at a 31 and zoom has a score of 15 it's also worth pointing out that as a company's score goes up each point is harder to achieve than the last since a company would have to sustain very high growth rates or very high operating margins as their Market grows and their competition increases over time that's why most of the companies on this list either have high Revenue growth or high margins but not both so according to this rule of 40 data paler is absolutely crushing it with their score of 57 paler Revenue growth has been accelerating for the last four quarters as well growing by 133% then 17 20 and now 21% year-over-year those numbers are even better for their commercial business where paler commercial Revenue grew by 27% overall and 40% in the US so in one or two quarters they'll finally be making more money from commercial companies than government agencies which is a much smaller total addressable Market another thing to consider is that commercial businesses typically make large software and subscription purchases at the end of the year to lower their tax burden and the US government's fiscal year starts in October so that's when different agencies and military branches are get their budgets that's why the fourth quarter is usually paler highest quarter for growth but if that's the case then why did paler grow even faster in quarter 1 the answer is their AIP boot camps which are Hands-On working sessions where participants can work directly with paler Engineers to build real solutions using real company data in less than a week and underestimating the power of these boot camps is the exact same mistake that I made last year which is why I decided to make this video after seeing this clip from Yahoo finance what about richy this company's uh boot camps where they get customers you know kind of up and running fast with their AI software smart strategy in your opinion I think it is but uh look I would I would again put a little bit of skepticism around that boot camp strategy I think number one remember paler is very heavy customized software right I estimated more than 30% of their business is actually Professional Services and Outsource data science rather than actual true software so I don't know that is even the right fit for something like a boot camp but it doesn't go from there to a customer becoming a multi-million dollar talenter customer overnight which is how they make it sound on earnings calls but but in reality a lot of times those boot camp customers might do multiple boot camps or they might turn into a pilot customer over time it's not nearly the gamechanging to Game Changer to go to market that that I think they claim it to be AIP boot camps are a game changer for paler and I can prove it the way they work is that experts and decision makers can go and plug in their own company data even if it's sensitive and use AIP to build their own AI tools and workflows that means they leave these boot camps with AI use cases that are close to production ready and with enough hands-on experience to actually start implementing them on top of that paler Partners can run their own boot camps which effectively makes them an extension of paler sales team and that helps aip's adoption compound even faster Alex karp often says that the explosion in demand for peners platforms comes from shifting to this more Hands-On goom Market strategy with these AIP boot camps well everyone's claiming to do things and we're showing them being done we could we could hire marketing we've never been good at marketing we could run around say there are 50 things we do better there are certain also technical things that we've built that people don't understand their value yet so it's better just to show the value of an antology but let's not take his word for it let's look at the data palun us commercial customer account is up by a whopping 69% year over-year and 19% quarter over quarter even though quarter 4 is usually their strongest quarter that's why paler closed 136 us commercial deals last quarter which is more than one deal a day and almost twice as many deals as they closed this time last year and this is really why paler growth picked up across the board after they started running these AIP boot camps in Earnest if that's not the definition of a game Game Changer I don't know what is all right that's the what now let me show you why there's such a big disconnect between paler earnings call and how the mainstream media has been covering it Rishi so obviously you you're not a fan you've got an underperform on the shares here um we see it coming back to Earth today but you know the market has not been on your side thus far this year there has been the stock has rallied there um definitely are a lot of paler buyers out there where do you think this sort of disconnect lies between that perception of paler as an AI winner and what you're saying which is that in truth it might not be yeah I I think it comes down to that perception around exactly what is paler exactly what is AIP because when we talk to actual technologists who are deep into AI deep into ml who know more about this topic than I could ever hope to over my life they are expressing skepticism around paler and and especially around AIP and whether they are what they say they are from you know an AI perspective what I think it comes down to is volunteer messages that they are this cutting get generative AI company they message around a lot around AIP and boot camps and I think very deliberately Target retail investors um and and look everyone wants to play the AI game and and don't get me wrong I'm a huge believer in Ai and especially gen of AI technology I think it is going to change society as we know it I just don't think paler is that cutting against generative AI company that they claim it to be I'm not saying it's not a useful company but it is not what they claim it is and I would say to any investor that really wants to play this AI Trend go by Microsoft um you know they are doing a lot more when it comes to generative AI plus they have that very deep partnership with open AI which to me is one of the most important companies in the world today um I I think Microsoft is a much better way to play the AI wave uh than paler all right so rousi is actually right about a couple things here which we'll get back to in a second the big thing he's wrong about is that paler isn't really claiming to be a generative AI company in the first place and this is where Alex karp's comments come back in we built software infrastructure that allows Enterprises both commercial and government to move Beyond chat move Beyond self-pleasuring to actually produce things that are valuable I love this job paler does not make large language models in fact they don't make any generative AI models at all and they don't have to paler Gotham and Foundry platforms enable data science across an entire organization by giving everyone one consistent real-time view of their Enterprise data they do that by helping companies create digital twins which are also called ontologies at a high level an ontology is just a map of a company's resources and how they all relate to each other which makes them a great way to see the big picture for large and complex Enterprise paler platforms help companies build and use these ontologies to do things like analyze mountains of proprietary data track inventories assets and resources and optimize Logistics chains manufacturing processes and other forms of operations for multinational multi-billion dollar companies that's a lot of stuff to keep track of especially since things are constantly changing in real time the problem is that Gotham and Foundry are pretty complicated products themselves and in my EXP experience using Foundry the learning curve can be pretty steep that's where AIP comes in at a high level AIP lets users interact directly with their company's ontology through prompts so instead of coding or manually creating different data sets and dashboards users can interact with AIP kind of like how they would with chat GPT and not just chat GPT because AIP can support any third-party large language model that a company chooses it lets Enterprises set rules and guard rails on what the model can access which tools it can use to calculate answers and limit hallucinations it can control the different kinds of actions a model can take and keep a full audit log of everything the model does what resources and references it used and everyone who prompted it in the first place that's how AIP adds real business value to generative AI models without being a generative AI model itself and this is why it's so important to understand the science behind the stock for yourself I know this video is a little long but I wanted to be thorough since there's such a big disconnect between the rhetoric and reality around AIP paler and their latest earnings including the rule of 40 and how paler score of 57 Stacks up against other SAS companies they're accelerating growth in commercial revenues customer accounts and they're expanding operating margins that gives me all the context I need to really decide where paler goes on my list of stocks research like this thanks and with that out of the way let me show you where paler currently sits on my list of stocks like I said earlier rousi was actually right about a couple things in that last Yahoo finance clip Microsoft is the current king of generative AI software especially with their deep partnership with open AI that's why it's been the top company on my list all year Nvidia is a very close second because they're the current king of AI hardware and I don't think that's changing anytime soon they're just too far ahead and moving too fast for other chip makers to catch up Nvidia reports their earnings in a couple of weeks and if they overd deliver like they have been they could end up in the number one spot on the flip side paler started in the number nine spot on this list because of all the concerns that I had last year but paler has proven time and time again that AIP seriously lowers the barrier of Entry to use AI across almost every Market vertical from National Security and heavy Industries to finance and even drug Discovery and their AIP boot camps are a huge game changer for getting those Industries to adopt their platforms in the first place which we saw when we dove into their earnings data despite the current mainstream media narrative paler goto Market strategy is clearly working which is why I'm moving paler up one more spot on this list that's a pretty big move considering how confident I am in each company at the top of this list and how far up paler has already moved over the last 5 months that's why it's so important to understand the science behind the stocks and if you want to see how I pick these stocks here's the video where I walk through it step by step either way imple
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