저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 달러 붕괴와 대규모 금융·통화 위기가 임박했으니 금, 해외주식, 실물자산으로 옮기고 미국채·달러 자산과 고평가 미국주식을 피하라는 주장이다. 거시 진단: 트럼프 정부는 오바마 시절부터 쌓인 거대한 버블을 물려받았고, 통계도 부풀려져 있다. 2008년보다 훨씬 심각한 위기가 올 것이며 달러 위기로 번져 미국인의 생활수준이 크게 떨어진다. 책임은 연준과 저금리 통화정책에 있다. 위기 이후 정치: 위기 후 급진 좌파(버니 샌더스 계열 사회주의자)가 집권해 양원을 장악할 것으로 본다. 경고 신호: 작년 달러는 14년 만에 최대 낙폭을 기록했고 올해도 거의 매일 약세다. 미국 10년물 금리는 3~4년 만에 최고치를 찍었고 200개월 이동평균 돌파가 임박했다. 약달러가 원인이며 원자재·유가 상승, 재정적자, 무역적자 최고치가 경고 신호다. 투자 전략: 금과 금 관련주, 신흥국 주식, 외국 주식, 실물자산을 보유하고 미국채·미국 회사채·지방채 등 달러 표시 채권과 고평가된 미국주식은 피하라. 위기 시 구매력 대이동이 일어나며 미국인은 소비를 줄여야 하고, 다른 나라가 부를 얻는다. 저평가 자산을 사고 버블은 피한다. 비트코인: 대부분 코인은 화폐도 아니고 실물 상품인 금과 달리 쓸모가 없는 버블이다. 현재 비트코인 신규 계좌 수는 코인베이스가 찰스 슈왑보다 많을 정도로 과열됐다. 가격이 5~6천 달러 아래로 떨어지고 1~2천 달러까지 회복하지 못하면 붕괴로 본다. 2만 달러 재돌파 확률은 반반 정도로 본다. 수익은 결국 먼저 파는 자만 얻고 뒤늦은 매수자는 손실을 입으며 가격은 하루 만에 250달러까지 떨어질 수 있다. 마무리: 과거 달러 약세장(1971~1979)보다 이번이 더 심할 것이며 달러는 기축통화 지위를 잃고 평범한 통화가 된다고 주장한다. 자신의 전략으로 수년간 부진 후 최근 성과가 좋다고 홍보하며 계좌 개설을 권한다.
다듬은 글
I'm Charlotte McLeod with the investing news network and here today with me is Peter Schiff of euro pacific capital thank you so much for joining me today my pleasure as always so we're here at beer I see one of the topics you're discussing is or have already discussed as the term the train wreck and how to profit from that that was my workshop here okay so can you tell me briefly the cause of the train wreck how did we get here well you know everybody's on the Trump train right everybody thinks this is great the economy is booming the tax cuts are gonna be powerful and we're solving all the problems and we're making America great again and we're you know deregulating and we're unleashing all of these animal spirits and that's the narrative but none of that is true and I don't think it's a train you want to be on because I think it's headed for a wreck I think that Trump inherited a bubble of epic proportion from Obama in fact Trump himself recognized the bubble I mean it's actually bigger than he thought when he said it was a big fat ugly bubble but at least as a candidate he talked about the bubble and he talked about how all the statistics are phony and it's not really showing the truth about what's happening the economy well now it's the same economy but all of a sudden he loves the statistics because he's taking credit for how good everything is and he's over-promised and he's gonna under deliver like nobody's ever under-delivered because we are headed for a crisis much worse than the one that we had in 2008 I think it'll make it look like a Sunday school picnic I think it's not just gonna be a financial crisis we're not gonna get off that easy it's gonna be a currency crisis a dollar crisis and the impact on the economy and on the standard of living of the average American is gonna be much more profound and Trump and the Republican Party unfortunately are gonna get blamed for it just like Oh Bob just like Bush was blamed but it's really it's beyond the president's it's more the Federal Reserve it's the monetary policy yes we have too much government but it's all the cheap money that has made it all possible and when this thing blows up we're gonna make such a hard turn to the left it's not going to be Obama that's going to you know it's gonna be a Bernie Sanders or somebody that maybe Bernie Sanders handpicks you know his protege but he's gonna be a socialist and he's probably gonna have both houses of Congress and it ain't gonna be pretty okay so this train wreck I imagine it's difficult to predict exactly when it will come to a head but can you can you name some signs that you would say okay now we're getting close well the signs are there just a question of when they go from flashing yellow to right red but you've got the movement down in the dollar last year was the first year in five that the dollar fell but it was the biggest drop in 14 years it's off to a weaker start now it's almost down every day it's not a crisis yet but it's on the way look at the bond market we hit a new high today in the 10-year yield the highest we've been out of three four years but we're very close to getting through the two hundred month moving average which we haven't done since I can't even remember we could be very close to a major breakdown in the bond market the weak dollar is the driving factor it's all the inflationary forces that have been unleashed over the years coming home to roost so you've got rising commodity prices rising oil prices right the budget deficits are gonna rise the trade deficits are hitting record highs all of these things are the warning signs that people are ignoring but they're gonna start flashing brighter and brighter and brighter until they're blinding okay so as an investor what do you do what should you do right now well I've been preparing for this for a long time people could say I prepare too early and that's something that I always do I always see these things from a mile away and I prepare so early that people think I'm wrong some people actually give up and unfortunately give up at the exact wrong time they throw away the winning hand that I dealt them right they get left out by the market but people need to be in your gold and gold stocks but emerging markets foreign stocks real assets avoid the US bond market the dollar overpriced stocks in the US but there are other overpriced stocks around but we are heading for a major like economic upheaval and there's going to be a gigantic realignment of wealth and purchasing power they're gonna be people we're gonna lose a lot of purchasing power and they're gonna be people who are gonna gain it and I'm ready to gain it right and I think I'm positioning people to ride this wave most people are gonna drown beneath the wave okay so you mentioned emerging markets and getting out of some us-based assets what are can you go more specifically on what those might be well a dollar-denominated debt instrument would be a Treasury bond a corporate bond in dollars municipal bonds right also a lot of US stocks where they're they earn a lot of dollars selling products to over leveraged underemployed Americans who can't even afford what they're buying and they have to borrow the money and they can't afford to repay that you know so you have to understand how the dynamic is gonna change when the Americans finally stop shopping when they can no longer live but not beyond their means when they have to live within their means and believe me our means have been dramatically diminished over the decades and at the understand how a lot of people are all of a sudden gonna be a lot wealthier a lot of people in other parts of the world who have been doing all the hard work who have been producing everything that Americans consume who have been saving all the money that Americans borrow all of a sudden it's like you know the tortoise that wins the race you know the hare dies of exhaustion and so you have to understand how this global dynamic is going to change when the dollars not the epicenter of the global financial system and Americans actually have to work if they want to consume right and so there's gonna be a big realignment so I want to own assets in areas of the world that are going to be increasing in value relative to those that are decreasing and I don't want to buy into the bubbles I don't want to buy another height right and so there's a lot of assets that you can buy that are you know undervalued relative to the ones that everybody else is buying that are overvalued I'm gonna switch tactics a little bit here you're also at VR I see talking about cryptocurrency I will be you will be okay so can you tell me your position on cryptocurrency then do they compete with gold what is the story well you know most of them aren't even really crypto currencies even Bitcoin now a lot of people admit well it's not actually a currency because you can't use it it's too expensive it's too slow it's too volatile so now they've rebranded it as a digital asset and they're saying it's like digital gold the problem is it's nothing like gold because gold is an actual element it's an actual commodity that people desire they desired it for thousands of years they were using it as a luxury good long before it became money I mean money was eventually invented to replace barter but what money is is a commodity that everybody will accept in exchange for other commodities and then you can use it as a unit of account as a store of value of a medium of deferred payment but unfortunately Bitcoin is nothing it's just you know you can somebody can give it to somebody else so you can own it but if there's nobody who wants it there's nothing that you could do with it there's no actual use other than the fact that you can give it to somebody but why would somebody accept it well because he thinks he can give it to somebody else well why would they accept it because they think that there's a greater fool out there who will pay more so it's a classic bubble probably the biggest bubble I've ever seen in my lifetime and I've seen a few you know because the feds central banks have been blowing them and this is kind of a byproduct of the central bank's they didn't actually blow this bubble the way they blew the real estate bubble or the dot-com bubble I mean it's not fueled by credit but it's fueled in part by the narrative that the Federal Reserve helped create because the initial people who got in early who have the opportunity to cash out and actually make a bunch of money off of other people's foolishness and greed they actually got in as you know it was as if it was a backlash against QE against central banking and central planning a lot of libertarians free-market guys anarcho-capitalist kind of got in but now you know obviously the guys that got in early need to drum up buyers so they can get out and now you just have everybody buying high school kids you know people are putting money in they're taking out home loans they're using their credit cards to buy into a little piece of a dream because they're being sold a bill of goods that oh you're gonna become a millionaire you're gonna get rich just put a little bit of money because look at how much money has already been rate here's some little kid that put you know his grandmother gave him $100 and now he's a millionaire you know you could you could be a - all you have to do is buy the next cryptocurrency that gets created so this is a gigantic bubble now whether we've seen the highs I don't know I'd say it's at least a 50-50 shot that Bitcoin will never go back to 20,000 again no now maybe it will but it's too early to say that the bubble is over but I think if we keep trending down and we have been trending down if we can't get back up and make a new high and if we crack below let's say five six thousand and then get back to one or two thousand then it's done and I know people are gonna say well you know bitcoin has had you know Corrections of eighty to ninety percent before yeah when it was tiny you know when it went from $30 to $2 and very few people were involved but at this point in time you get that kind of decline it's over and I would already say right now that if you took the total number of people who owned let's say Bitcoin I would say more of them only that a loss than owned at a profit I mean the people that have profits have huge profits but as far as numbers their numbers are smaller because we had so many people record numbers of people opening up accounts right they have more accounts now on coinbase than Charles Schwab they were being overwhelmed with people buying at 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 always going down and if we go back down to you know one thousand two thousand right almost everybody is down except the people that got in at the very beginning but that is going to be a big problem for the brand because when everybody was buying in at 1520 thousand all the stories were how much money people made me to let me get in on it but once the market collapses and now people start hearing the horror stories about how much money people lost well now they're not gonna buy it anymore because that is the main appeal for most people that are buying at these high prices it's the appeal of getting rich they don't even understand what's going on all they know it's a new thing and if I don't buy it I'm gonna be left out it's that fear of missing out and the narrative is like it's gonna go so high that you might as well just buy a little bit because if you don't buy it you're broke right because all the wealth is going to go to the people that owned crypto currencies so you better just put one percent of your net worth just in case right and so that's some of the body but then of course the smart money is is using that buying to get out right because in the end the only profits that are gonna be made in crypto currencies are gonna be by the people who sell and in order to sell and get out you need a buyer so that's what it's all about now is generating finding buyers somebody hold somebody who can hold the bag for the people who got in early who want to cash out and actually make money but there are a lot of people who have this idea Oh holds forever right never sell that's what the people who want to sell want you to do so they have less competition right they created this situation where you've got people who refuse to sell well at some point you know the holders are gonna become folders and that's when it's gonna implode now that might be when Bitcoin goes from 1,000 to 250 in one day right I don't think it's gonna implode from these high levels because people still have hope but at some point they're gonna give up hope and they're gonna take whatever they can get and it's not going to be much because then there's nobody to buy last question yeah best tip for investors in 2018 open up an account with with me your Pacific Capital you know just I think did our strategy you know after many years in hibernation the last couple of years we're killing it and we're just getting started this is the tip of the iceberg right this is the beginning last year again was the first year of the dollar decline this is not just a decline this is gonna be the biggest bear market in the dollar's history and the worst bear market we ever had was the 71 to like 79 that was after we went off the gold standard and gold went from $35 an ounce to 800 and oil went from 3 bucks to 30 bucks and you know the dollar went from you know for Deutschmarks to 1 and a half from 360 yen to about 150 right the Swiss franc actually went you could buy a Swiss franc for 23 cents then it went up to like 75 cents this one could be worse than that one and this time I think the dollar loses its role as the reserve currency I mean it should have lost it back then but I think now is it's over for the dollar and now the dollar is just going to be another currency and you know and that's gonna be a game changer okay thank you so much for coming sure pleasure to have you okay once again I'm Charlotte with the investing news network
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