저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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결론: 피터 쉬프는 트럼프 감세·재정적자로 주식시장 거품이 더 커졌으며 거품 붕괴 시 달러 붕괴로 투자자와 경제가 타격받는다고 보고, 금과 해외(외화표시) 저평가 주식을 대안으로 제시한다. [주식시장 거품과 정책 평가] 트럼프는 대선 전 시장을 거품으로 지적했지만 집권 후 오히려 주가 상승을 자신의 공으로 돌리며 거품을 키우고 있다고 본다. 감세 기대가 기업이익 증가 낙관을 만들었으나, 감세로 인한 적자와 정부지출 확대가 더 큰 해를 끼칠 것이라 주장한다. [경제 처방] 정부 규모 축소가 필요하며 국방·사회보장(Social Security)·메디케어 등 대대적 삭감과 개혁을 주장한다. 연방 공무원 감축과 규제 철폐(오바마·부시·클린턴 시기 규제 포함)를 요구한다. [리스크 시나리오] 연준이 세 차례 거대 주식 거품을 부풀렸으나(2001·2008·현재), 이번 거품은 너무 커서 다시 대체하기 어렵다고 본다. 추가 부양은 달러 붕괴를 부르고 임금·저축·연금 가치를 훼손해 다수가 빈곤해질 것이라 경고한다. [금 전망] 달러 구매력 하락으로 금의 달러 가격은 상당폭 오를 것이며, 금은 구매력 보존 수단으로 가장 신뢰할 만하다고 본다. 현재 금 가격은 인플레이션·달러 약세 가능성을 충분히 반영하지 못하며 투자자들이 지나치게 낙관적이라 평가한다. 금 주식은 매우 저평가되어 있어 리스크 감수가 가능하면 기회가 크다고 본다. [해외 투자] 미국 주식은 대체로 과대평가되어 있어 장기 성과가 나쁠 것이라 본다. 통화가 달러 대비 강할 나라의 실물 기업을 합리적 밸류에이션에 사는 전략을 제시하며, 일반인은 펀드 위탁을 추천한다. [정치 시나리오] 트럼프 임기 이후 좌편향 전환과 2020년 민주당 재집권 시 감세는 증세·규제 강화로 뒤집혀 시장 기대와 반대가 될 수 있다고 본다. 부시 임기 때처럼 8년간 주식이 금 대비 크게 하락했듯 이번에도 실질 붕괴가 올 것으로 예상한다.
다듬은 글
I'm Charlotte McLeod with the investing news network and here today with me is Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital thank you for joining me thanks for good so you'll be speaking later today about the US economy and why it's not being made great again can you talk a little about what Trump has accomplished or not accomplished so far what's your overall he's accomplished blowing more air into a stock market bubble that already existed before he was elected in fact he rightly identified the market as a bubble as a candidate but you know his policies have not you know altered that in fact he's now champion the stock market he's the biggest booster he's actually claiming credit for the market rising and I do believe that part of the fuel that has caused the bubble will get bigger is the enthusiasm that Trump will reduce taxes and that these lower taxes will mean more corporate earnings certainly higher tax earnings because they cut corporate taxes a more robust economy more growth and so there's a lot of optimism but I think the optimism is misplaced because I believe the added deficits that will result from the tax cuts and the increased government spending will do more harm to the economy then whatever benefit we get from paying lower taxes because the real problem is bigger government and paying for bigger government with deficits means more money printing you know more quantitative easing that's going to be negative for the dollar it's going to be harmful to the underlying economy it's actually going to make the situation for most Trump voters worse maybe people in the stock market will get richer but that's not how Trump got elected he didn't get elected promising to make people that owned stocks richer he promised to bring prosperity to the masses to make the lives of the middle class better to have better jobs that are paying jobs and nothing that he's doing is going to bring that about okay so what should he be doing if he wants to actually make the economy great again what should he do well we should actually be cutting the size of government the reason the economy isn't great is because the government is great instead so to have the economy bigger we need to make the government smaller so we need massive cuts across the board including things like the Defense Department and entitlements Social Security and Medicare these things need to be caught we need to have substantial reform to these programs meaning smaller checks need to be sent down recipients we need to make the federal work force smaller we need to reduce the number of people that are employed in the public sector so we can have better jobs in the private sector because the public sector employs by and large are not productive and in fact they're actually interfering with productivity that might otherwise take place now we need more regulations to be repealed not just a few of the regulations that were put in by Obama through executive order we need a lot more than that and we need to get into a lot of the regulations that happened under Bush both Bush senior and junior and Clinton you know the government has been growing they've been adding to the regulatory burden for decades we have a lot of damage that needs to be undone and so far we're not doing it okay so you mentioned it's a bubble in the stock market that may be good for people who are already rich not so much ordinary people so if you're a regular person what should you be doing right now how do you for the people that have no stocks what happens when the bubble pops you know the Federal Reserve has inflated three gigantic stock market bubbles basically you know this century the first one popped in 2001 the second one popped in 2008 who knows when this one is gonna pop but this is the biggest one yet and the prior to the market was cut in half and the only way the government was able to bail out investors was because the Fed inflated a bigger bubble to replace the one that just popped well I think this is this bubble is too big to replace right when it pops that's it the Fed is out of tricks there's not gonna be a fourth one that they can inflate because in order to do that they would have to use so much stimulus that they would actually kill the dollar and we wind up overdosing on stimulus and we have a dollar crash and that's not going to help investors that's gonna hurt investors but it's gonna hurt the economy even more because it destroys the value of people's wages it destroys the value of what savings they have it destroys the values of let's say cat value that people might have built up in annuities you know insurance policies so a lot of people I think are gonna be impoverished by the dollar collapse okay so lots of people here are interested in gold how does gold fit into this picture well obviously gold will rise in dollar terms rather substantially as the dollar loses purchasing power you need more and more dollars to buy an ounce of gold among other things but I think people that own gold will be able to preserve their purchasing power of course goal who's not the only asset that people can own but it's certainly one of the most reliable I and so I think today gold does not really reflect all the potential for inflation the potential for dollar debasement I think investors are too complacent they're too optimistic about the future and you can see that in the stock market but you can also see it in the price of gold cousin stocks are going up gold prices are not and you know you look at what's happening with these tax cuts people are interpreting that these tax cuts are gonna be buried for gold because they believe that are gonna be bullish for the dollar but they've got it backwards because when you pay for government by creating money instead of accessing the money that already exists if you're gonna create new money in order to pay for a bigger government that is always negative for the currency because by definition you are creating more currency you are paying for government with inflation and so the way the way taxpayers feel the cost is instead of the government taking away their money the government takes away the purchasing power of their money so they don't reduce the number of dollars they have but they reduce what you can buy because they make prices go up okay so if you're an investor should you buy physical gold should you look at gold stocks if you should look at both I mean investors should look at gold stocks for sure there's obviously more risk there there isn't just buying bouillon bouillon is more of a way to preserve your wealth yeah gold stocks can really enhance your wealth but of course if you buy them at the wrong right wrong time they can diminish your wealth but I think gold stocks are very cheap right now and so I think as long as you can afford to take some risk and you're not gonna sell them if they happen to drop right I think if you have a long-term time horizon which may not be that long actually the scheme of things I think there's tremendous opportunities in that second that's why we you know we have a bowl fun sure you're Pacific Capital and I recommend that people rather than trying to pick the winners and losers themselves by fund and let somebody else do the work for you okay and last question you mentioned some other things in addition to gold that might be good to look at what are what are some of those things well our stocks in countries we invest a lot of money for clients at your pacific capital in stocks in countries where I think the currencies are gonna hold up better over time relative to the dollar and where you can buy real companies at reasonable valuations meaning I get a decent dividend paid in a foreign currency not have to pay too high multiple relative to the earnings of the company I mean that's not the case the United States any decent company is way overpriced and overtime overpaying for stocks is not a good recipe for long-term investing success when george w bush was elected everybody was optimistic that the bull market that we had under clinton would continue but when George Bush left office eight years after he was inaugurated the markets were considerably lower than when he was sworn in so you had that eight-year period where investors lost money in the market because the market was so overpriced when Bush was elected well it's even more overpriced now when Trump is elected and the underlying fundamentals of the economy are much worse the the problems that Trump inherited from Obama a much bigger than the ones that Bush inherited from Clinton and so I think it's much more dangerous now to be in the stock market over time investors are gonna lose even more but especially when you adjust those losses for inflation or measured them in terms of the price of gold I think you're gonna see a real collapse and the stock market did very bad pricing gold under under Bush I mean much worse than it did price than dollars and I think it's gonna happen again only on a bigger scale under under promise I mean well if Trump is only there for four years instead of eight but you know whoever you know you know follows him especially if we end up with a hard turn to the left and if the Trump voters are so disillusioned by promises that weren't kept it could open the door for you know a candidate on the Democratic side it's even further to the left than Bernie Sanders - to actually win and so the markets are now excited about lower taxes and fewer regulations well if we end up with Democrats controlling both houses of Congress and the White House in 2020 whatever tax cuts we get now are going to be more than taken away with big tax increases and it's going to be an onslaught of new regulations so the markets might actually get the opposite of what they're now preparing for okay that's all for me thank you so much for the insight once again I'm Charlotte McLeod and Peter
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