저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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한 줄 결론: 피터 쉬프는 미국 달러 기반 거품이 언젠가 터질 것이며, 이에 대비해 금과 금광 관련 자산으로 피신할 것을 주장한다. 거품 진단: 미국 경제는 저금리와 외국 채권자로부터의 차입으로 지탱되는 지속 불가능한 구조이며, 거품이 역대 최대 규모에 가까워졌다고 본다. 붕괴 시점은 특정하지 않는다. 대비 전략: 달러 및 달러 표시 자산(채권, 금융자산)이 가장 큰 피해를 입을 것으로 보며, 안전자산으로 금을 추천한다. 실물금은 자산 보존용, 금광주는 자산 증식용으로 구분한다. 금광주 리스크: 금광 기업은 채굴 원가가 금값보다 높으면 수익성이 없으며, 탐사 단계 기업은 금을 보유하지도 않아 더 위험하다고 언급한다. 금 가격 전망: 달러와 법정화폐 가치가 하락하는 만큼 금값에 상한은 없다고 주장하며, 달러가 0이 되면 금값은 무한대라고 말한다. 다만 밀, 석유, 구리 등 다른 원자재 대비 금의 상대가격에는 역사적 한계가 있다고 본다. 중국 신용등급 하향 및 원자재: 중국 국채는 자국 통화로 차입하므로 디폴트 가능성은 낮고, 미국 국채보다 안전하다고 본다. 위안화 공매도 세력이 손실을 볼 것이며 위안화 강세가 나타나면 중국의 원자재 수요와 수입이 증가할 것으로 전망한다.
다듬은 글
I'm Charlotte McLoud with the investing News Network and here today with me is Peter Schiff president and CEO of europacific capital thank you for joining me today well thanks for having me yeah that's great so we're actually here at the international metal writers conference you'll be speaking to later today about the e EIC bubble in America it's a complex topic but could you talk a little bit about what an economic bubble is and how we got one in the US well a bubble would be an economy that is really not sustainable it is based on in our case artificially low interest rates provided by the fed and the extent to which the United States is able to live beyond its means by borrowing money from foreign creditors to pay for products that we didn't produce so our economy is a bubble it's not a sustainable economy that is based on under consumption and capital investment and savings and production it's based on debt and consumption and cheap money and I think the bubble has gotten about as big as it's going to get and I think when this thing pops look out because there's a lot of err that's going to come out okay is that a thing that's going to happen quite soon or a little further into the future do you have a time frame for that well in the scheme of things that's going to happen soon I mean when they write the history books about this time period uh this is the time period where this bubble comes to an end but whether soon is this year or next year or even several years into the future I can't know that in fact you know I would have thought had you done an interview with me you know 8 years ago 10 years ago I would have thought that the crash would have happened by now but it hasn't not because I was wrong about predicting it but just because the bubble has gotten so much larger now I never really put a time frame on it and said oh this is the year it's going to happen because I don't know but what I do know is that it's coming and I do think investors should be prepared for it how how should they be prepared what do they need to be doing right now to get ready for that well they need to invest in the asset classes that will do well when this bubble pops and you have to recognize that the bubble really is in the US dollar and dollar denominated instruments such as bonds that you know pay in US dollar or financial assets that trade in price in US Dollars and and so people need to get protection from that although the US dollar isn't the only currency that's going to lose value and America isn't the only economy uh that has a bubble but I think America's is the largest and so I think the most damage will happen to the dollar and people that are investing in the US so people need to look for real safe havens which is one of the reasons that I'm here at this mining conference because obviously gold is going to be one of the best safe havens around and companies here there's a lot of mining companies here that are actually going to be sitting on gold reserves that are going to be far more valuable in the future than they are today so would you recommend buying some physical gold buying gold stocks a little bit of both that depends on you know your time Horizons your risk tolerance you know what your objectives are if you're just trying to preserve your wealth then just owning fysical gold is the way to go if you're trying to really grow your wealth then you may achieve that with gold mining stocks of course you could achieve the reverse there's a lot more risk in buying buying into a company that mines gold and of course there's a lot of companies here that are exploration companies they don't even have gold so they're hoping to find it so that's even riskier than the companies that own it and just want to get it out of the ground but you of course you know there's a lot of complications it might be that you have gold but it may cost more to mine it than it's worth when you go to sell it but of course that will change if the price of gold goes as high as I think then some of these mining companies that can't profitably mine gold at 1,200 with the 2,000 3,000 5,000 all of a sudden it's a different Dynamic and now gold that's worthless because it's too expensive to extract it now is it very valuable okay and do you have a gold price prediction how high do you think it could go well there is no limit to how high gold can go because there's no limit to how low the dollar can go or other Fiat currencies so it's not really that the price of gold is going up it's just the value of paper currencies is going down and you can measure that loss of value with the price of gold but you know there is a limit to how expensive gold will get relative to wheat or oil or copper or other Commodities that historically have relationships with gold you're talking about real things but there is no real value to any of these Fiat currencies they can all ultimately go to zero and if the dollar is worth zero then gold price is infinite Okay so we've talked a lot about gold US dollar how that relates to commodities prices but China also has a huge impact on Commodities as well and um they were just downgraded for the first time in quite a long time can you tell me how that could play into Commodities well I think ultimately the Chinese are going to be even bigger buyers of Commodities in the future than they are today and they're already pretty big buyers I mean we're here in in Canada and uh Canada I mean China buys a lot of Commodities uh uh from Canada but I think they're going to buy more when they finally abandon their currency Peg and I think right now you have a lot of traders who have been betting against the R&B and they've been shorting it and that's probably part of the reason that you have this downgrade but I don't believe that Chinese bonds are going to go into default I mean the Chinese are borrowing in their own currency which they can create what you need to look at when you're when you're rating the credit of a sovereign is are they going to be in a situation where they create inflation like the United States right A lot of people will think well you know the US Treasury will never default on US debt so therefore it should be rated AAA that's not the point even if we don't default we're going to inflate it is imposs possible for the US government to repay its debts in money with purchasing power so they're going to end up defaulting through inflation now I don't think the Chinese are going to do that I think Chinese government debt would be safer to hold than US Government debt and I do think when we hit this dollar crisis and I think it's coming I think the really big move in the Chinese currency is going to be up not down and I think the speculators who are shorting the the currency are going to end up losing a lot of money and as that Chinese currency goes up so too will demand for Commodities from Chinese consumers that now have much more valuable currency to buy Commodities and so what will happen as the Chinese R&B goes up commodity prices in China come down demand for Commodities in China goes up and now China is going to be importing a lot more you know raw material okay all right thank you for that explanation those are all my questions for today that's it huh that's it thank you um thank you for joining me um once again I'm Charlotte McLoud with the investing News Network and this is Peter
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