저자: DanIves,CraigWiener · 외국인
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마이크로소프트 실적은 매출·이익 상회에도 클라우드(Azure) 성장률 둔화로 주가가 하락. Dan Ives는 AI 혁명의 검증 순간이며 급락은 위험한 과잉 반응이라 주장하고 목표가 550달러로 저점 매수 의견을 밝힘. Craig는 장기 성장주 조정은 매수 기회이며 2급 기술주 종목 선별 장세가 계속된다고 봄. 메타·아마존·애플 실적을 AI 랠리 지속의 핵심으로 제시.
다듬은 글
it's time for the 360 round and we're talking Microsoft and the tech sector for that let's bring in our panel Dan IES is managing director of equity research at wedbush Securities and qu Craig warnimont his chief investment officer Adventure Visionary Partners Craig Dan so good to have you both here with us Dan I'll start with you obviously it was a beat on both the top and bottom line but Cloud Revenue seems to be overshadowing the good news I know I can always count on you for a headline in your note after results you say Street wanted a validation moment for AI Microsoft and nadela just delivered it yet Shares are lower today what are investors missing that you saw oh yeah I mean look I think these knee-jerk reactions just like we saw last night it's not the right move because if you look at what nadela and what Amy Hood talked about it's the validation moment not just for Microsoft but the AI Revolution and that's some of the White Knuckles we've seen over the last week everyone focused on when's monetization going to happen accelerate of azure starting in January I think it's to get out the popcorn moment it continues to be 900 p.m.
in this AI party that goes to 4 a. and I think investors were worried that the music was going to stop but it's not Craig want to get your thoughts on Microsoft's Q4 earnings are you walking away as optimistic as Dan yeah and and typically we do uh agree with Dan when he's on always enjoy his comments um I wise commentator maybe it was Dan once said that pullbacks are normal natural and healthy occurrences in the market or a stock until you get one and then everybody panics so you see small pullbacks every once in a while a little bit of profit taking it is normal natural and healthy there is a long line of Wall Street strategists uh that have lamented the fact they didn't own uh Microsoft and much of the the rest of the mag 7 over the past year and so they should think this 10% pullback uh over two weeks or so is a gift and instead some of them are going on air uh saying wait and see and it might get worse and is this the end of the grow stockable Market we don't think so we think investors should have had their high quality growth name shopping list ready you don't have to buy it all in a day but when you get pullbacks of of 10 to you know over 30% in Nvidia in these high quality names you you've got to just realize that's your your rare uh opportunities that come along from time to time to to get into names you wish you would have always owned all right so Dan I heard you talking this morning about how Microsoft's results almost had you wearing black today which would have been a huge shock I think to everyone and then obviously your tone changed after the call so what specifically was it that has you wearing flamingos today yeah so and look Carol me and you have talk about this before like the knee jerks I think are dangerous when you look at some of these numbers and some of the nervousness Craig talked about in terms of a lot of the Bears you know yelling coming out of their hibernation caves it all comes down to is mization happening and there's two companies in the world that have the best Purge it's Godfather of AI Jensen Nvidia and thean Redmond and what you heard last night that's the validation moment words heard around the world heard around the street this AI Revolution the next phase is now starting and that's why I think a year from there we're looking a AFF Tron Mark cap in Redmond so Craig the big question I think is how much of this potential growth is already priced in to shares so for Microsoft it's it's up about what 11% year-to dat up 24% over the past one year but down 6 and 12% or yeah almost 7% this month you would look at that as a buying opportunity because you see more room to run well let me back back up and just say uh at Venture we're very long-term investors so uh looking for opportunities to get into companies that deliver long-term uh growth of Revenue earnings and cash flow um I'm not saying that the bottom is is going to be as soon as this interview ends but you should be buying things you don't have to buy the whole position in a day you should be adding when you get these pullbacks because you don't get them all the time and yes to answer answer the question directly yes we do think it's enough of a pullback that uh a year and three years from now you'd be pretty happy uh that you bought here even if it gets a percent or a few percent cheaper over the next uh couple of days because of something else going on um the future the the future growth drivers the contributions that are small from you know 10,000 co-pilot seats signed up so far that doesn't add much even though it it doubled quarter over quarter but in the future that's going to be the thing that's adding a lot to uh Revenue once it becomes a bigger piece of the overall business and so that's why we like companies like this that are always innovating and delivering uh growth you know aure Azure Revenue uh coming in at 29 instead of 31 a lot of companies would kill to get 29% growth they they'd be thrilled to post that number uh but I understand a little bit of modest disappointment on the part of the street in the short term there there should be a little bit of a short-term pullback but uh take it for what it is it's an opportunity to uh to own a little more of something that you wish would have probably owned for the last few years all right so Dan we know with a $550 price Target you'd be a buyer of the dip here but what is it that you need to see from Microsoft for it to remain a best idea I mean they're they're doing everything in terms of executing I think co-pilot expansion aure that's going to be acceleration second half of the year that's why in that Mount Rushmore of this AI you have of course nadela you have Jensen now the mcder and others and this is starting it's a fourth Industrial Revolution and to me to look at Microsoft from the outside and not to view these as opportunities you know some of that's covered Tech 25 years these are the golden opportunities to own the best names that are playing a once in a generational Tech move Craig what else is on your shopping list aside from Microsoft well there's there's a lot of stocks that have been pretty magnific in over the last year that have never been talked about in uh the mag 7 uh in the prior segment uh the the person you had on was talking about AMD it hasn't uh kept up with Nvidia um but whenever you go to the second tier you have an opportunity to buy things that haven't uh had their valuation explode to the upside yet because valuations do matter uh and so if you can find things that are growing uh we'll we'll command a decent amount a market share but aren't the number one name in the spotlight a lot of times you you get uh pretty good returns there but the stock Pickers Market that we've been blessed with that nobody seems to admit that we already have is if if there is a magnificent seven or another 70 behind that that did pretty darn well over the last year if if you own half of those in your portfolio you're going to end up doing pretty well so it has been a stock Pickers Market uh for grow stocks um and and we think that's going to continue because the uh the the best way to grow your capital is to own companies that are growing their earnings and you as an owner uh obviously uh sharing that so so this is where you want to be uh highquality Tech some of the media companies uh Verve is a company that uh or maybe I'm not supposed to talk too much individual stocks but uh companies that feed into uh the the halo effect of the buildout of of the uh data centers so there's all kinds of ways to play it aside from the seven that get talked about all the time okay but let's talk about the seven just quickly Dan Ives we still have to wait uh and here from meta tonight we'll have apple and Amazon as well this week how important will those be to keep this Tech rally that we're seeing today continuing I think it's going to be more it say Rubik's Cube and that's going to be I think gold medal performances from the likes of meta Amazon of course Apple you know to close it out because this is all just feeling pieces of a puzzle AI spend Goldilocks in terms of broader and I an advertising comeback that we're starting to see we'll see that meta as well right we're bullish on Tac and look the haters will continue to hate just like we saw last night after market I think those are the opportunities to own the golden names like Microsoft all right Dan Ives Craig warnimont Venture Vis Visionary partners and of course Dan IES of wedbush Securities thank you both so much e
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