저자: Kevin · 외국인
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비트코인이 부양금(스티뮬러스 체크) 입금 이후 '루머 매수, 뉴스 매도' 패턴으로 조정받고 있다고 진단. 과거 강세 신호 대비 약세 지표가 늘고 있어 3만2천~4만7천달러 구간 재테스트 가능성 언급. 이 구간에서 포트폴리오의 3%p 정도 분할 매수 전략을 밝힘. 다음 달 CPI 발표가 인플레이션 우려를 자극해 상승 촉매가 될 수 있다고 봄. 반대로 인플레이션 헤지 수요가 꺾이면 리스크가 있다며, 10만달러 도달 시 일부 익절 가능성 언급. 장기적으로는 비트코인에 강세 견해.
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i just lost lots of money in bitcoin let's talk about bitcoin so bitcoin is selling off a little bit despite the fact that stimulus checks are just now hitting people's bank accounts and the theory has generally been wait a minute if people get stimulus checks there's a good chance they're not actually going to need the money and that they're just going to throw it into cryptocurrencies in fact when i interviewed the ceo of voyager what did they say hey when twelve hundred dollar checks went out wow golly we got a whole lot of 1200 deposits and folks there are many reasons why we invest in bitcoin first of all it's just been going straight up and to the right so why not invest in something that's going to the moon after all it becomes safer to invest in something as it gets more expensive right wrong obviously if we've been watching this channel or you follow me in the programs that i've listed down below with an expiring coupon code today you know that as prices go up they actually the asset the underlying asset becomes more risky but anyway society doesn't like to think that and so when things go up and to the right people tend to invest more money into it so few reasons why why do we invest in bitcoin well first it's been going up into the right uh second it's by some people deemed to be a digital gold some people deem it to be a hedge against inflation some people seem to consider it a hedge against government and just fiat currency in general others like it because they deem it to be fast and reliable very secure and uh ultimately something that is uh very transparent if you have everybody's wallet addresses so we know exactly what's going on and what money or where money is being spent so bitcoin has some very very exciting properties and there are even some real bitcoin bulls which i don't go this far even though i'm bullish on bitcoin i don't go this far there are some bitcoin bulls who think that bitcoin might one day replace the us dollar now i don't think drum powell with the money printer is ever gonna let go of the dollar maybe it won't be a paper dollar anymore maybe it'll be like a digital coin like a fed coin and they'll use blockchain but i don't think it's gonna be bitcoin not just my opinion but right now we've gotta focus on for bitcoin why is bitcoin down seven percent today and it's kind of been selling off from its highs this weekend when people started getting their stimulus check deposits when it hit intraday highs of almost 63 000 crossing 62 600 dollars what the heck is going on and what do we expect going forward well first it's helpful to look at the weeble trunk now in case you don't know what platform this is go to medkevin.com deposit 100 and this company will give you all you have to do is go to kevin.com weeble deposit a hundred bucks boom you that's kind of a lottery determining how much you get but let's go back for a moment to december when bitcoin was trading for around 17 000 per coin there's something interestingly absent from this chart we do not have a lot of bearish keys bearish keys are where you have a nice green stick but it actually went so low that it had a substantial low within that candlestick and it just happened to end higher within that candlestick within in this case that hour and notice we're looking for big green lines going down under where all the other candlesticks are and you don't really see those like here's a tiny one but that's pretty irrelevant with how small this is going down we got some pink ones you know here's one potentially here's a bearish one uh but we're not really seeing any of these between 20 000 30 000 low 40s we're not really seeing these bearish keys come up but at this point you might be wondering like kevin what the heck is a bearish key like i don't know i don't i don't see a problem here ah but they're actually right here and that's what's interesting you started getting a couple bearish keys over here here see long green arrow another long green arrow leading up to some some sell-offs and just so you could see what that looks like long green arrow shows you in this case an hour period of time where you had a substantial sell-off pretty large i mean in this candle right here we went from fifty five thousand eight hundred to fifty one thousand one hundred uh and and then you ended up closing though above the previous close and that's why you end up with a green candlestick well some say that when you get these like here or here you end up leading up to a crash which in that case we have seen now what's interesting though is compared to the history here of of bitcoin we're seeing these come up a lot more frequently look at march we can just count these one two three four five six seven uh eight nine these are bearish indicators and these are the kind of indicators that we have not seen at previous levels like when we were seventeen thousand twenty thousand thirty thousand now this is leading some folks and i'm gonna share my opinion on this i just wanna share what some folks are thinking this is leading some folks to say that if we keep seeing these indicators we could potentially end up testing support again and that means that bitcoin could potentially fall back to support levels well we have two pretty easy support levels that we can identify one right around 47 000 some people say forty thousand dollars is a support level but i don't see any support at forty thousand i mean maybe the prior resistance is what they're using over here uh and that's entirely possible but i haven't seen that tested yet and so i'm gonna prefer to go with this support level here around that 32 200 level and so there are some folks who believe that it's possible that bitcoin after the stimulus checks come and people start selling the news remember the saying in stocks and and equities buy the rumors sell the news people start selling the news that oh stimulus checks are here time to take my attendees on bitcoin it's possible we could retest into the range of 32 000 to 47 000 somewhere within this range now obviously no guarantees that we would even head back into this box but here's my strategy and then i want to tell you about a potential upcoming catalyst my strategy is if bitcoin falls within this box and then at whatever point we hit a support we hit some kind of u-turn support i would be interested in adding to my bitcoin position at that point i'm not interested in adding to bitcoin right now where bitcoin is i'm willing to wait as much as i love the interest i'm getting paid over at block five because they're paying sweet interest on bitcoin and they're giving you up to two hundred fifty dollars when you sign up for block five by going to mckevin.combf i'm willing to be patient on this one if we continue to see buy the rumor sell the news because of these stimulus checks and we go into these boxes here between a level of 47 000 to 32 000 i'll probably start nibble buying i don't think i'm gonna like i wouldn't buy this heavy uh but i would nibble so a nibble for me is gonna be you know uh a few tenths of a percent of my portfolio just here's for example one-tenths of a percent of my portfolio here's another one-tenth here's another 110 and then just kind of keep buying in until my portfolio was up to about six to seven percent bitcoin that's sort of how i like my portfolio to be diversified right now i'm only about four percent bitcoin so i'd be willing to add somewhere around three percentage points to my portfolio which would be a nice increase now no guarantees obviously that we're going to go into this box that's just my strategy right now regarding bitcoin my strategy is to hold my bitcoin so i've got about 15 bitcoin i'm holding that uh because i i do think there is another catalyst for a run here and i'm going to explain that in just a moment if we get within this box i will nibble by up to that percentage of my portfolio certainly if we break the lower support of 32 000 that's where i might consider starting to buy it a little bit heavier especially since i think we've got a very nice upcoming catalyst that could lead bitcoin higher but that also comes with some new concerns so the upcoming catalyst that we have is going to be the cpi release the consumer price index data release which we just had last week next month so next month in april we will get the consumer price index data for march which is the month that stimulus checks will probably have been received and spent and i personally believe that even though a lot of bitcoin hodlers do not trust the government cpi data there could be a buy the rumor sell the news catalyst for the next cpi release which could potentially push bitcoin up dramatically and that's because i believe that markets will look at the next cpi release and say there's no way there's no way we can print 1.9 trillion dollars send out all these stimulus checks and not see inflation now i think it's going to be buy the rumor sell the news because i think when those that cpi data comes out it's going to disappoint a lot of people i don't think we're going to see massive month over month inflation we will see large year-over-year inflation but we're at expecting that and we know that's because we're measuring to a low point so that's not that big of a deal but month over month might actually disappoint and then there are two things that could happen one bitcoin hodlers will double down and say well the cpi data is bs anyway and stick to their guns and bitcoin stays stable could still be a buy the room or sell the news event we could still see bitcoin fall but overall it could maintain some stability if cpi ends up coming in higher then i think that could be a pretty strong reiterating force for showing bitcoin or proving that bitcoin is that deflationary tool that we could use to hedge against inflation uh but keep this in mind and this is a risk factor this is uh this is this is where i'm going to evolve my theory here okay so here's a risk factor first of all i just ran this poll on twitter at realme kevin on twitter you should follow me and join my polls and take a look at this of the people who invest in bitcoin so of this group right here about 43 percent the top line i'm i'm removing this bottom here and then dividing this by the sum of this right about 43 of the people who do invest in bitcoin who voted here said that the reason they invest in bitcoin is as an inflation hedge that's nearly half of people who invest in bitcoin based on this poll on my twitter nearly half of the people investing in bitcoin are doing so with a primary reason of bitcoin being an inflation hedge this becomes a little bit of a longer tail risk in my opinion because what happens if actual inflation however you measure it and i know what's crazy to say but what happens if inflation does not manifest itself and again i know it's crazy to say because look biden's about to print not only the 1.9 that we just passed but another possible three trillion dollars for infrastructure right but what happens if bitcoin doesn't end up being needed as an inflation hedge because there's no inflation then what other reasons do we have okay no government but the no government is really an argument of we're worried about fiat because of all the government money printing so it's possibly and i'm not going to say all because there's still a benefit to not having government involvement right but i still think some of the people in this no government are considering fiat as being a problem which is kind of similar to the inflation hedge argument right uh sure we've got easy borderless safe and fast but that's the smallest reason out of these three but there are other reasons to invest in bitcoin so i thought okay well let me go to the comments section here on twitter let's see here uh you forget i invest in crypto because i believe it will keep going up okay here's another one i don't see the make as much money as humanly possible option okay johnny utah because number go up okay so like like i i get investing in bitcoin as an inflation hedge but if it's true that nearly 50 percent of people are investing in bitcoin as an inflation hedge you want to hedge the possibility that inflation does not happen and that reason for investing in bitcoin evaporates again i know it's crazy it's the unpopular opinion don't hate me for making that opinion i own 15 bitcoin and i'm not selling it but let me tell you when i would sell right after i recommend that you nd the stocks trust kevin you get the private live stream and lifetime access to all the lectures i can't even talk and making myself crack up so much the coupon expires tonight which is fun bringing it up but anyway no so so here's here's a thesis that i have the next time we see a big run-up and i mean i'm talking big run up like we go oh my gosh cpi data is coming up bitcoin's going to a hundred thousand dollars i could see it happening i could literally see people plowing money and institutions plowing money into bitcoin because they think the cpa data over the next three months is going to be disastrous and the cpi data over the next three months year over year will be disastrous but month over month is going to be the real tell and again i know that cpi is not one of the favorite measures of inflation i get it but it's going to be what the suits are looking at as much as we want to fight it the suits have a lot of money in bitcoin in fact right now if you want to invest in bitcoin kind of like how a lot of the suits are doing you could buy the grayscale bitcoin trust which is actually selling for a negative seven percent discount well a negative seven percent premium or a seven percent discount to net asset value that's the grayscale bitcoin trust is selling for less than all of the bitcoin they hold which would be the zero line right here uh which is possibly a sign of lower institutional demand like when we had high institutional demand the grayscale bitcoin trust was selling for like a 20 to 40 premium it was nuts right now maybe institutional demand is a little bit lower as this cell the news is happening but if we do get this sustained belief that inflation is coming then we will see a buy the rumor sell the news cycle or we may what do i know i'm not a prophet i'm some dude on youtube wearing a just lost lots of money shirt or sweater here and we got doge on the back okay all right so so you got to qualify where you're hearing these opinions from and and that includes me but i i just want to warn and this is my strategy that if bitcoin runs to 100 i might be tempted because remember what happens price goes up risk goes up if bitcoin runs to 100 i might be tempted to take some money off the table now remember it's not paper handing to sell into green it's smart to take some money into green unless you you have something you just want to hold forever and that's fine too you can totally hold something forever but uh with bitcoin if we get a run up to 100 before this next cpi data i'm out uh not completely out but i'll probably take all my gains off the table or just leave you know uh or take my original investment out and just leave the gains whatever it's the same thing and i might take that money and throw it into something that'll do well in a potentially lower inflation time like tech because if bitcoin runs to 100 because everybody's fearful that big inflation is coming and if it doesn't come we might see that quick reversal again now you just might want to wait to see what happens but these are just some of my thoughts this is my strategy over the next 30 days for bitcoin so again to just kind of hit that point home if we fall below the bars here i'm adding i am bullish between the bars on bitcoin bullish between those bars here if we don't get those bars i'm happy with my 15 bitcoin a hotel we get to 100 in the next 30 days it's time to take some attendees okay it's gonna be time to take ten days because with 50 of people expecting inflation if it doesn't manifest that that could be a catalyst for a problem uh and who knows you know again i'm long run bullish on bitcoin but short term that's on my radar the coupon code does expire today and folks we'll see you next time you
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