저자: Just-InvestToday채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
알리바바 주가 하락 원인으로 소프트뱅크의 보유 지분(약 6억 7,400만 ADS, 지분 약 24%) 매도 가능성이 거론된 뉴스를 다룬다. 발단: 알리바바가 미국에서 10억 주의 신규 ADS 등록을 신청했고, 이것이 소프트뱅크가 보유 지분(ADS 환산 약 6억 7,400만 주)을 매도하려는 신호일 수 있다는 추측으로 주가가 하락했다. 당일 약 6% 하락. 소프트뱅크 사정: 중국 기술 규제로 소프트뱅크가 큰 손실(약 540억 달러)을 입었고, 올해 알리바바 등 중국 종목이 크게 하락해 기관으로서 수익률 보고 압박이 있어 지분 정리 가능성이 있다는 논리. 미디어 관점: 언론은 거래를 유도해야 수익이 생기므로 알리바바 관련 자극적 헤드라인을 계속 만든다고 주장. 뉴스 자체가 사실이 아닐 수도 있다고 언급. 밸류에이션: 2017년 주가 약 115달러 대비 현재도 비슷한 수준이어서 5년간 기업가치가 늘지 않았다는 시장 신호로 해석. 찰리 멍거가 210~215달러대에 매수한 사례를 들며 현 가격이 저평가라는 논리를 제시. 결론: 기관 매도와 무관하게 개인 투자자는 5~10년 장기 보유 관점을 유지하면 된다는 입장.
다듬은 글
like think about one of the greatest investors charlie munger invested in alibaba you think at like 210 215 the one of the greatest investors thought 215 was a bad price it was undervalued charlie munger were talking about again again and again look what's always driving the narrative for alibaba it's honestly crazy at this point just the mere speculation is just driving these stocks down man down almost six percent for the day man libaba it's in the news again another news cycle and this is having to do with soft bank of course it has to be softbank one of the major shareholders of ali baba news just came out that alibaba is registering new shares so this is dropping prices down because people think softbank is actually going to sell out of his position or going to start selling out of his position because it got enough shares where softbank can actually sell out slowly and that's what the speculation is that's what everyone is thinking so let's read some of this so alibaba plans to register 1 billion new american depository shares in the us may be a sign that softbank intends to sell some of the 5.3 billion alibaba ordinary shares it owns softbank stake in the equivalent of almost 674 million adss of nearly 24 of alibaba last friday alibaba filed with the u.s security exchange commission to register one billion new adss with each of those representing eight ordinary shares of alibaba stock so this is the major news so this is what's happening and i keep driving the point i keep saying this as a narrative you have to make alibaba news like this has to be front and center because it generates revenue for all these articles they're just speculating they don't even know if this is true they don't know if this is happening they don't even they haven't even talked to anyone about this but this is the news this is the things that they have to talk about to keep the revenue coming to the media the media is always going to drive the narrative this doesn't even have to be true but look what's happening in the market you really have to think about it you have to keep driving this alibaba narrative you have to keep saying stuff because remember what the media wants it wants people to trade in and out of alibaba the media the all the financial institutions are based on transactions how much shares are you gonna buy how much shares are you gonna sell that's what the news is based on so the more alibaba headlines the more headlines of any stock more guidance breakdowns more guidance lowering it's just gonna drive the narrative drive the price lower and that's what they want they want you to trade in and out of stocks right so this is the whole point of the news the whole point of these articles they need to drive this narrative that people are just gonna sell out of alibaba so it can keep more transaction keep more people watching they're reviewing their posts on the on wall street journal on barons whatever it is but even if let's say this is true we have to think of it from soft bank's point of view look what happened softbank suffers 54 billion from china's tech crackdown you have to understand what institutions are thinking about us with so much new content man so subscribe subscribe subscribe what institutions are doing shopping has been getting killed this year almost like 45 down because remember they have a lot of steak in all these chinese companies so you got to think of it like that what is happening in the market what's going on remember institutions have to report to people they have to say like oh we're making this much money we're generating this much profit we're up this much percent soft bank can't do that so what are they going to do they're going to get rid of their position and invest in the new company invest in a different bunch of stocks because they need to generate those returns somehow and if they don't see that in one year two years they gotta sell out of it so that's what softbank is up against but us shareholders that don't have anyone above us don't have anyone talking to us we can wait all day long it doesn't matter what softbank does it doesn't matter what these people are doing we have all the time in the world we have four years five years six years we don't have to report to anyone so that's what softbank is suffering they're getting killed in the market they're they're losing all this money right and they have nothing to show for it so people are going to want their money back the institutions are going to be like what are you doing something about this problem so we don't have this same hurry to sell our shares because why would we do that when alibaba is going to be prosperous four or five years down the line it's not going anywhere it's only gonna get stronger think about it look what the market is telling you just look at the market like think about it it's telling you look in 2017 it was 115 so basically what the market is telling you is that alibaba hasn't grown in five freaking years like it's the same it's the same company in 2017 to 2022.
that's what the market is basically telling you it's the exact same company the price is exactly the same so in the market it's telling you alibaba has value has not changed since 2017. if you still think alibaba is worth 115 dollars you're delusional that's what i'm saying is that we have all the time in the world to wait like think about one of the greatest investors charlie munger invested in alibaba you think at like 210 215.
one of the greatest investors thought 215 was a bad price it was undervalued charlie munger were talking about and like you have to admit he's one of the godfathers of investing he doesn't make a lot of investment decisions so you have to take that to your bank even though we don't look to like authority figures as like oh since they bought it at this price that means it's this price but it's telling you that since 2017 alibaba has not increased its value that's what the market is trying to sell to you so if you believe that you can believe that but you have to open your eyes on what the market wants you to do it wants you to transact and wants you to sell your shares on any single piece of news any kind of news that comes out of alibaba people are gonna sell people are gonna fight back and that's what they want they want these increased transactions from institutions from individual people they gotta get that flown they gotta get those transactions flowing that's how they make their money you gotta think of it like that so guys tell me what you think about all this news about alibaba and his share account going down do you think softbank is just gonna undercoverly just get rid of all their shares and even if they do who cares man we're in alibaba for five to ten years we don't have to worry about what softbank is doing what any other investor is doing so tell me what you think guys like this video subscribe to my channel i'll get back to you in the next video peace
Comments 0