저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
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결론: 연준이 금리 인상을 한 번 더 할 수는 있으나 이번 은행 위기 이후 곧 인상 종료 및 2023년 하반기 금리 인하로 갈 가능성이 크다. SVB 파산과 연준 대응: 실리콘밸리은행 파산으로 내러티브가 '고금리 장기화'에서 바뀌었으며, 금리 상승 과정에서 이런 사고가 날 것을 예상했다고 밝힘. 예금 인출 사태 전면 확산보다는 개별 사고로 보며, 연준이 은행을 뒷받침할 것이라 봄. 퍼스트리퍼블릭, 시그니처은행 등 추가 문제 가능성은 언급. 금리 역전과 신용 경색: 장단기 금리 역전은 지난 60년간 모든 경기침체에 선행했고, 단기 차입·장기 대출 구조의 은행이 취약해짐. 지역은행의 대출 기준 강화(신용 경색)가 핵심 리스크이며, 이는 0.25%p 인상 2~3회에 맞먹는 긴축 효과로 평가. 연준 감독 실패 비판: 금융위기 이후 스트레스 테스트가 금리 2%까지만 검증했고, 금리 리스크 점검이 빠졌다고 지적. 샌프란시스코 연준 등이 불일치를 알고도 조치하지 않았다는 비판. 파월 의장에 대해 비판적 입장. 금리 전망: 이번 3월 FOMC에서 0.25%p 인상 가능성이 있으나 근소한 차이이며, 인상 여부보다 파월의 기자회견 톤(일시 중단 가능성 시사)이 더 중요하다고 봄. 생산자물가가 예상보다 낮고 노동시장도 다소 완화되어 일시 중단 여력이 있다고 판단. 2023년 하반기 금리 인하를 예상. 크레디트스위스와 UBS: 크레디트스위스는 수년간 문제가 있었고 UBS 흡수합병으로 정리됨. 주주는 대부분 손실을 입었고 일부 채권(하위 채권)은 100% 소각. 미국과 스위스 중앙은행 모두 대형은행 파산 불용, 예금 인출 사태 차단 원칙을 가지고 있다고 설명.
다듬은 글
well the Federal Reserve begins its latest Open Market Committee meeting today and the question of whether to raise rates again or to hold off is at the Forefront of the discussion the banking failures of the last couple of weeks have also shown greater concern of whether the quick Rising rates over the last year have played a part in those failures Jeremy Siegel professor emeritus of Finance at the Wharton School joins us right now Jeremy great to talk to you again thanks for your Insight and your time thank you Dan happy to be here thank you and so what's your feeling right now because there's obviously I think a little bit more in play than we normally associate with the FED decision because of all that's going on in the banking sector the last two weeks I I mean I think the failure of uh Silicon Valley Bank just changed the narrative uh really dramatically um you know beforehand it was hike hike hike only inflation um and now and you know Dan because I've warned that I thought the Fed was over tightening and that an accident uh was likely to happen and uh you know I didn't I certainly didn't expect it uh to come right as a a bank run that was closed uh faster than any other bank that I actually remember um but it did and uh obviously uh uh ma'am there is Contagion we see what's going on with First Republic um uh and Signature Bank close there there may be some other fall but there's not going to be a general bank run the Fed will stand behind them the big the big problem of course is this gonna this is gonna tighten lending standards every Community Bank which does as you know the you know a tremendous amount of mortgage and commercial lending is going to be looking over at shoulder and say oh my god do you have the credit am I going to get a regular looking at me what's my position do I have long-term bonds that also are selling at a discount um you know one of the fallouts of the inverted term structure and why inversion has preceded every single uh recession in the last 60 years is precisely um uh something like this you know uh Banks uh borrow short they lend longer now obviously Silicon Valley did it in extremum they should never have been allowed to do that right but um when you invert the term structure you can get these these sort of uh accidents so there's a lot of question as to how this all kind of played out what's your view because I mean as you said there's a question about the Federal Reserve and maybe even more specifically the Stanford Cisco fed in terms of overseeing what was going on in that region of the country there is obviously the component of having zero percent rates for such a long period of time and the actions that were taken that kind of you know in that bond market that kind of led to this is it a case where you can kind of point to one or two things or is it kind of a combination of all of these components well you know what I learned and I didn't know this until I talked to some you know banking experts since svb uh is that uh the the fed you know these famous stress tests that were initiated after the great financial crisis uh were done on credit quality and they only were done on interest rates up to two percent uh and obviously went way beyond that and it shocks me um uh that uh you know uh with you know interest rates now for six nine months way over two percent that no one said just a minute we haven't tested these Banks uh for interest rate risk and that's a I mean that's a failure I think again from the top down at at the Federal Reserve and on on the local scene I mean uh we now get information for instance that um Silicon Valley Bank has a lot of warnings there was a New York Times article today about that uh and others in San Francisco fed knew there was mismatched and again they didn't go in and manage it or think that that could also be a problem with other Banks and could cause a systemic problem through the banking system I I think this is another black mark on on Jay Powell as you know he has not been uh my uh Idol to say the least for many years but um uh you know this is a very serious oversight so then what we've seen with the banking failures just reinforces that that path that you have talked about that it's it's time to stop what the rate increases to shut them down now and see how everything kind of reacts absolutely now I you know if you want to be honest I I you know I I think I come down on that they're going to go a quarter point What's going to be more important whether they go a quarter or none is the guidance that they give later and I don't just mean the Dot Plot I I think uh the the the tone of the press conference that Powell runs afterwards because you can be sure that 99 of the questions are going to be about banking um and and and and uh you know I don't know when these uh these uh these Dot Plot questions to the to the bank residents were actually sent out they may have been either before svb or in the early stages whether they're all going to get a chance to revise it or to think about it seriously um but I think the tone of what um uh Powell says afterwards I think I think he's going to say my feeling is is that if they do go a quarter that's my guess but uh it's it's a close one uh that he he will be saying we can afford to pause the the inflation data Dan has been has been coming out fairly good actually recently as you know producer prices came in way under uh expectations um uh we had a little bit of loosening of the labor market with that February uh report we had good the University of Michigan uh inflation expectations report so we can now say you know we're getting enough evidence that uh with the cumulative effect of monetary of policy we could afford to pause and and weight developments he will never commit a pause uh uh you know my uh you know good because developments can always change and and I've been uh one that is always saying if you want to know the truth they only make their decision probably five days before actually um but uh I think that uh he will give the tenor of a pause uh at this point and see what direction if the normalization goes if the inflation goes down uh you know then they will set the course I do expect that we will be lowering the FED funds rate uh through the second half of this year that was going to be my next question to you because that's seemingly in talking with a couple of other economists is that that is is starting to become more in their mindset that if they do raise a quarter point this point at this time this may be the last one and we could be talking about an actual rate decrease later this year which obviously I think some people believed that maybe 2023 we weren't going to see that at all but obviously that was well before what we've seen with the last two weeks with the banks you know Dan I kept on saying when they kept on saying everyone was it was uh repeating the Mantra you know uh higher for longer tighter for longer and I said hey you guys you don't know what what's going to happen longer term yeah and now we don't hear that uh uh we don't hear that anymore I mean you you really can change I mean most experts think the tightening in The Lending standards and the chill that this produced is equivalent in itself to two or three 25 basis point rate hikes so you know clearly you don't want to pile on top of that uh and you have to take that into account I remember at the very beginning at the end of last year when I really saw things going downward I said you know we might have a two handle on the fit funds rate by the end of this year everyone was laughing at me and and by the way the data still the real data has still shown good strength but um I I wonder whether you know I really wonder whether we're going to see the turn just the chill in the air the caution that this sort of thing just brings about um uh to Consumers producers uh and uh um uh really uh any borrowers does does UBS Credit Suisse play a role in in that thought process either short term or moving forward because of obviously the connection here in the United States well I I I I think that what what happened to UBS credits what is credit Swiss has had in contrast to Silicon Valley Credit Swiss has had problems for years yeah um and it's been going down down down and you know everyone was kind of wondering and this kind of this kind of Crisis sort of pushed it over absorbing it into UBS a big bang they didn't wipe out the shareholders but you know Cheryl was taking a huge hit it's an interesting case where shareholders may have taken only a 99 and I think some of bondholders are certainly the not not the senior battles the Lesser about knows got wiped out 100 which is a rare a rare sort of a a case um but if you want to know the truth I I think of a a big bank I mean that if that would happen and I don't expect it to happen in the United States the FED would do the same thing uh I mean you know basically with the central banks I mean certainly there's a difference um um and we you know we could talk about but but they both have the philosophy you cannot allow a large Bank to fail you have to merge it in the other and you have to uh you know you have to prevent a bank run everyone has learned the lessons really of the 1930s which of course produced the the bank support in the great financial crisis which was going to turn into the 1930s had not bold action been taken by Ben Bernanke at that time um but they they've they've learned the lesson that you you can't let this uh uh fester and then snowball into a crisis Jeremy as always great to talk with you thanks very much all the best thank you Dan thank you uh Jeremy Siegel professor emeritus of Finance here at the Wharton School
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