저자: JamieDimon · 외국인
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JP모건 CEO 제이미 다이먼은 미국 경제가 현재 긍정적 지표를 보이지만 지정학적 리스크로 2023년 경미한 경기침체(mild recession) 가능성이 있다고 전망한다. 핵심 주장: 물가 상승률이 둔화되고 실업률이 소폭 상승하는 등 연준의 긴축 효과가 나타나고 있으나, 연준이 인플레이션 대응이 늦었기에 목표 달성에 예상보다 오래 걸린다. 지정학 리스크: 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁, 유가·식량 가격 급등 가능성, 신흥국 확산 등 예측 불가능한 변수가 기업들의 신중한 투자와 감원을 유발한다고 봤다. 금리 전망: 연준 기준금리가 약 5%까지 오른 뒤 잠시 멈추었다가 다시 인상될 것으로 보며, 긴축 고통은 일정 기간 이어질 것이라 했다. 신흥국 리스크: 달러 강세와 금리 변동으로 부채가 많은 신흥국이 위기를 맞을 수 있다고 경고했다. 개인 영향: 모기지 금리 상승으로 주택 구매가 당분간 비싸질 것이라는 점을 언급했다. 마거릿 브레넌(CBS 외교 특파원) 해설: 다이먼은 미국 경제 자체는 강하다고 보며, 기업 CEO로서 리스크 관리 차원에서 침체에 대비하고 있다고 해석된다.
다듬은 글
the Federal Reserve is weighing whether or not to raise interest rates again before the end of the year as it fights to bring down inflation if we look at the numbers consumer prices have slightly gone down over the past six months the unemployment rate has ticked up just a little which is exactly what the FED is trying to do by tightening monetary policy gas prices are also now lower than before Russia invaded Ukraine which caused them to spike despite this this positive economic data JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie dimon tells CBS News Margaret Brennan the U.S could still see a mild recession next year Fed was late in recognizing inflation yes now we say it's unclear when it'll be how do you think about that I think they'll conquer it but it's going to take them longer than they thought so so for Americans they're feeling it pretty hard I know but but we made a mistake and now they have to fix it which is so rates you know his inflation rate inflation is going to come down the question is like by the end of this year you know four percent I don't know but but I think I think it'll take a little bit longer they think because of wages so and you have obviously commodity prices go up and down all over the place so uh unfortunately if it weren't for the geopolitical stuff yeah I think there's a good chance you'd have a mild recession but you think I think the geopolitical stuff is explosive is explosive yeah it's turbulent it's like anything can go wrong like the oil gas prices go to 120 the food yeah the Emerging Markets you know a war breakout somewhere else uh some kind of mistake with uh you know missiles like in Poland so what you're describing those you're saying all of that creates uncertainty so companies tap the brakes they start slowing down intentionally and we've seen a little bit out of ready yeah CBS News Chief Foreign Affairs correspondent and Face the Nation moderator Margaret Brennan joins me now Margaret it's good to be with you again um so we talked about in the intro to this piece a lot of these numbers look good Diamond's talking about this geopolitical risk um but is that is that the central reason he thinks there's going to be a recession next year well the Confluence of factors but fundamentally John what I think is interesting here is because what you just laid out there are those positive economic numbers happening but then we all are starting to hear about Job Cuts also happening some of them concentrated right now we're starting to hear um that things are actually having an impact on planning ahead and that's what JP Morgan's uh CEO Jamie Diamond is talking about he fundamentally believes the US economy is strong that America is uh competitively in a good place in part because of its abundant natural resources and ability to keep fueling itself but what he's laying out there is the amount of risk factors that are really hard for a risk manager and that's really what a CEO is to try to plan ahead and that's why you're seeing this caution from Business Leaders as they look at those storm clouds on the horizon so you may not be feeling the recession now but they're planning for it ahead and he's laying out that it's not just your average pullback he's talking about the globe going through some pretty major changes in a way that could have um reverberations for decades right so instead of just uh unpleasant things which would be uh you know firings or wages going down he's talking about uncertainty with crazy things you just can't predict that would come from anywhere so I want to ask you what's his feeling he said the FED got it wrong um so what's his feeling about what it means for them to get it right and what that would look like and does he think they're on that path well but I mean you know this well John because you've covered economics for so long when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates it it has a impact for so many different factors you know one of the things Jamie Diamond's concerned about is Emerging Market debt crisis in the in the year that poorer countries who've taken on debt will suddenly collapse under the weight of it because of these interest rate fluctuations that are being planned so um when he's talking about planning here at home he's trying to put all those pieces together he's saying in that exchange you just heard that the Federal Reserve can control what it can control can't control oil it can't control food it can control um this Benchmark rate and that he thinks it will continue to be raised up until uh about five percent then pause for a little bit but then he thinks they will have to resume rate increases from there once again and he's saying there that don't think of the nightmare scenario like you know the late 70s early 80s that this takes a decade to sort of work its way out of the system he thinks the Federal Reserve and the central Bankers who were trying to cool off inflation will succeed but that means it will be painful for a bit for for some of the rest of us when it comes to for example if you're trying to get a mortgage rate right now and buy that first home it's going to be expensive for a while if you're one of those Emerging Market countries that took on debt and you're looking at a stronger dollar that's going to be a little bit more painful for you as well so he's looking at it in that Global context okay Margaret thanks so much for being with us we'll see you on Sunday thanks John
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