What to expect as Jerome Powell's tenure ends as Federal Reserve chair

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파월 연준 의장 임기 종료 시점에서 그의 8년 재임 평가: 높은 인플레이션, 팬데믹, 연준 독립성 유지 등이 주요 쟁점. 후임 케빈 워시는 과거 매파 성향이었으나 청문회에서 금리 인하 가능성을 언급했고, 양적완화 축소와 금리를 주요 수단으로 삼을 것으로 예상됨. 유가 상승으로 인해 투자자들이 기대하는 연내 금리 인하는 당장 어려울 것으로 봄.

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01. Here's a live look at the start of today's trading. The Dow is currently down about almost three There it is, 300 points. Joining us this morning is financial journalist and ETF editor-in-chief for Asset TV, Kristen Myers. So, Kristen, always good to see you, my friend. Today, as you know, marks the end of Jerome Powell's tenure as the Fed Reserve chair.

02. What do you think the history books What What is uh Jerome Powell's legacy in your mind? Uh that is such a heavy question. Uh well, just as a reminder for everyone, um Fed Chair Powell literally held that position for 8 years, and in that time, we saw rising levels of inflation to numbers that we haven't seen in decades.

03. We had the COVID-19 pandemic, and then we had a federal investigation that is currently still ongoing, and then of course, we had the president continue to do attacks against the Fed chair for wanting to lower rates. So, what is his legacy? I think one is going to be to maintain the independence of the Fed.

04. I think he held that line incredibly well during his tenure, despite the president continuing to hammer him over it. And I think maintaining the strength of the US economy throughout some fairly turbulent times. Now, there's a lot of critics that say that the reason inflation is so high right now is because um of Fed Chair Powell.

05. However, we still have to say that the economy continued to hold strong even now into 2026, um and and is handing over a fairly strong economy over to Kevin Warsh, who's going to take uh the position as the new Fed chair. Though, that That doesn't mean that uh things are going to be easy uh for Mr. Warsh going forward.

06. He also has some difficulties going forward, particularly in managing inflation. But again, right now, unemployment still fairly low, economy still going fairly strong, and the economy has taken a lot of hits over the last 8 years. Sure has. So, Kevin Warsh, as you mentioned, he's replacing uh outgoing Chair Powell.

07. Warsh has advocated for lower interest rates. How soon do you think we can see that actually happen? That's a really good question. Mainly because Kevin Warsh is actually known as an inflation hawk, which usually means that he's in favor of letting inflation essentially he wants inflation to be lower by essentially keeping rates high.

08. And so that has usually been his position historically. He's he's been he's not unfamiliar with the Fed. He's been a Fed governor before and so we we already know that historically again this sort of hawkish position that he's been taking but again throughout the nomination hearings he's kind of backed off a little bit from that positioning a little bit saying that he might be in favor of actually lowering interest rates which again might actually allow inflation to rise which would be a departure from what he has previously done before.

09. We also know that when it comes to quantitative easing he really wants to reduce that program. This was something that very much expanded under Powell's tenure. That's the process of essentially buying these Treasury back securities by the Federal Reserve to essentially inject money into the economic system.

10. Kevin Warsh mainly wants to use interest rates as the primary and really the only tool that the Fed is going to use. And so his decision-making around rates is going to be incredibly important. But right now investors are still expecting at least one more rate cut for the remainder of the year. But are they going to get it anytime soon?

11. I doubt it not with oil prices as high as they are. All right. Kristen Myers always great to have you my friend. Have a wonderful weekend. Yes, of course. You too.