원문 보기
In terms of major catalysts for Tesla, uh we recently saw on X that Elon said that he expects uh for Tesla to be able to remove the operator in the vehicle in Austin within the next few weeks. Uh so so what does this mean? You know, currently the um the robot taxi service is autonomous, but there's still someone in the car.
They're not in the driver's seat. They're in the passenger seat, but this would be, you know, just the passenger riding in the vehicle. So true autonomy. We do expect there to still be some uh remote assistance feature that would be someone outside the car the car gets into trouble. Um but this is a major milestone for Tesla in terms of you know improving the autonomous technology to to scale the robo taxi service and you know I say scale because that's really Tesla's advantage here.
Um I mean let's look at Whimo. Whimo uh recently announced that they are in you know 10 cities now operating. They plan to be in over 20 cities by the end of next year. Um, except they only have singledigit thousands of vehicles on the road. Um, I think today we just saw there was a a recall notice of that would suggest there roughly 3,000 Whimos out there, but um, you know, I would say single-digit, thousand safe assumption.
Uh, so compare that to what Tesla is able to do. Um and of course it depends on what they prioritize versus customer sales and the or the robo taxi fleet but um Tesla can produce thousands of cars you know in a single day. Um last quarter they produced half a million vehicles. So um Whimo's really paving the way uh for the regulatory barriers.
Um and Tesla while they, you know, may may come second in a city, we think that they have a key advantage in terms of actually scaling the fleet, which really matters to bring the utilization rate down, which means improving the underlying economics, the cost per mile, um ultimately, you know, off eventually undercutting today's rideill prices, which is what we expect to expand the market for robo taxis far past what we see rideill as today.
Um so as you know from our published price target we think that robo taxis will uh contribute to the um what we believe like the majority of the uh enterprise value of Tesla by 2029. Um you know and we had assumed $2,600 per share of Tesla at that time. Uh that's really driven by robo taxi. So this this operator out is really a pivotal moment.
Uh look forward to that. Look forward to more um research from us on Optimus and uh space data centers. But for now, Rubax Tesla stock this week has become one giant emotional battlefield. On one side, you have investors screaming that Tesla is about to explode higher. On the other side, you have critics warning that Tesla is walking straight into disaster.
And right now, Tesla is standing right in the middle of that storm. Tesla's stock has been hovering dangerously close to that massive psychological level of $500. And trust me, this isn't just a price. This is a challenge. This is a declaration. If Tesla breaks above 500 and holds, it signals that investors truly believe Tesla is transforming from just a car company into an artificial intelligence and autonomous technology powerhouse.
But if it fails and falls back, then the message becomes brutal. It means Wall Street is saying, "We don't buy the hype anymore." I'll start with monetary. Um, I think if we were going to, if the Fed were going to be populated uh by individuals who believe that growth is inflationary and uh and and there was a lot of dissension on the Fed, I think that would be an issue.
Um, I think if Kevin Hasset or Governor Waller uh either one of them is at the helm next year, I don't think that will be a problem. Though the voters uh could disscent uh and and cause a lot of uncertainty in the market. Um, I'm already hearing the administration, including Howard Lutnik, uh, very recently on CNBC talk about growth not being inflationary and quite, in fact, quite the opposite, uh, in the 80s and 90s as uh, real GDP growth was picking up uh, inflation did come down consistently and uh, I think we're going to see that again as the supply shock associated with COVID and tariffs to some extent as they pass through the system and uh and we move to the other side of um all of that confusion.
Um, in terms of fiscal policy, um, I think if if the Trump administration uh is not enjoying a a strong growth environment with inflation and interest rates falling, uh, President Trump could become more of a lame duck uh, sooner than we expect, meaning uh, he'll probably be challenged Ed from a tax policy point of view, we love the tax policies, the corporate tax rate coming down to 10%.
Uh and uh individuals uh enjoying big refunds this year because of no tax on tips, uh uh overtime, uh large parts of social security, the doubling of the the salt deduction and and uh uh child care tax credits. Um, but if if we're in a weak economy, uh, we're going to get a a lot of angst around the midterm elections and, you know, uh, we we could see flailing around with, you know, new temporary spending measures, which is the last thing we need.
Uh, we really need to grow out of the deficit. And I do believe this administration has put in place policies to do just that. But if for some reason we're wrong on that, um the deficit will become a problem for for the bond markets. And just when the market was already emotional, Elon Musk dropped a bombshell.
This week, Elon Musk scored a massive legal victory. His once canled historic Tesla compensation plan was reinstated. This isn't just some corporate paperwork. This is a huge moment. It brings certainty back to leadership. It sends a powerful message that Musk is still firmly in control. For Tesla investors, that means stability, direction, and confidence.
But of course, there's controversy. Some people love it. Some say it raises big questions. But the effect on investor sentiment, huge. And then comes the part that turns this entire story into something even bigger. Tesla's robo taxi and AI future. Right now, Tesla is aggressively pushing toward full autonomy.
Reports and videos have shown unsupervised robo taxi testing. And that word unsupervised is what has investors going crazy. Because if Tesla pulls this off at scale, this isn't just another product. This becomes a completely new industry, a new revenue model, a new identity for Tesla as a company. Suddenly, Tesla isn't just building cars, Tesla is building the future of transportation.
But like every dramatic story, there is always another side. And this side isn't pretty. Tesla's core electric vehicle business has been struggling in key regions. Sales declines in parts of Europe and pressure from Chinese competitors are real. This isn't speculation. This is happening right now. And while AI and robo taxis sound powerful, a weakening primary business can't be ignored.
Investors know it, analysts know it, and that's why Tesla's stock is so emotional right now. And that brings us to Wall Street because even the experts are split. Some analysts are extremely bullish. They believe Tesla is on the verge of something historic. They point to artificial intelligence, autonomy, energy storage, and robotics as the reason Tesla deserves its massive valuation.
But other analysts are cautious. They look at deliveries. They look at margins. They look at the EV slowdown and they warn that Tesla could still fall if the fundamentals don't catch up to the future story. So right now Tesla is living in two realities. In one world Tesla is the future, a revolutionary technology leader about to dominate autonomy, AI, and transportation.
In the other world, Tesla is a struggling car company facing competition, declining growth in some regions, and heavy pressure to prove it deserves its valuation. This is why Tesla stock is so dramatic. This is why every move matters. Every headline, every announcement, every number. Because Tesla is not just a company anymore.
Tesla has become a story, a belief. a bet on what the future could look like. So, where does Tesla go from here? Does it finally smash above 500, proving the believers right and launching Tesla into its next powerful phase? Or does the excitement fade, the hype slow down, and reality hit hard? Right now, the truth is simple.
Tesla is at one of the most important moments in its history. and the next few weeks could decide everything. Whether you love Tesla or hate Tesla, one thing is certain. Tesla is never boring. And this story is far from over. Isn't
Comments 0