저자: Kevin · 외국인
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JP모건 보고서를 인용해 연준 피벗이 임박했다고 보며, 피벗에는 경기침체 전 피벗(주식 하락)과 중기 U턴(주식 상승) 두 종류가 있다고 설명. 코스트코 등 필수소비재 실적 둔화와 실업수당청구 급증을 리스크 근거로 제시. 본인은 인플레이션 완화 후 연준 U턴이 올 것이라는 견해를 유지하며, 단기적으로는 바닥이 U턴 전에 나올 수 있다고 언급. 시청자 투표에서는 U턴 60%, 경기침체 전 피벗 39%.
다듬은 글
and today folks JP Morgan finally finally finally somebody else acknowledged that there are two different types of pivots I am so grateful that finally somebody has acknowledged that there is a different type of pivot because what I keep seeing on YouTube is this moronic chart that doesn't show you that there are two types of pivots this is the only chart you see this is the only chart well folks the JP Morgan recession argument is out they are going to give us a breakdown of whether they think this Federal Reserve pivot is going to be good for stocks or bad for stocks they are going to compare to history to show us how historically have Federal Reserve pivots fared for stocks have they been good have they been bad are there different types of pivots hint yes and what kind of pivot could we be facing before we talk about the JP Morgan analysis on a pivot though so I have to remind you of something important and that is Costco what has Kevin been banging the table on for well basically all year and basically the last six months Kevin has been banging the table about this idea that we are going to see a massive slowdown in Staples and that stocks that have performed very well with uh the consumer staple stocks that have performed very well the McDonald's the Costco's the Johnson and Johnson are likely to suffer as their sales will likely plummet and their margins will get squeezed well folks it has finally happened these Costco failure has begun and this is not to bag on Costco Costco is a phenomenal company they have brilliantly figured out how to make money and I mean brilliantly figured out how to make money they know they don't make money off of selling food in fact if you go to some of their earning statements that's an older one finding uh let me see here if we go to an earning statement from Costco an older one that I have handy here what do we find we find that the vast majority of their bottom line comes from membership revenues they make about 10 on the crap they sell you and about 98 on the memberships that they have which when you then look at the bottom line the net income uh before taxes for Costco uh in Feb uh for the 12 weeks ending Feb 12 2023 was sitting at about one uh 0.98 billion dollars of that about a billion so more than half came from membership revenues because the margins are so high on the membership revenues so it's it shouldn't be surprising that Costco has brilliantly figured out how to make money off of you it is not on the stuff it is on the membership that is what makes this company wildly profitable it is just like McDonald's McDonald's doesn't actually make the bulk of their money on selling you Mech nuggets they make the bulk of their money by selling McDonald's owners known as franchisors McNuggets that's how McDonald's makes most of their money substantially unfortunately these flight to safety staple stocks are getting hit and I want to start with this by telling you that in my opinion this is where Starks get hit the worst and the hardest before I tell you about the JP Morgan piece which led the JB Morgan piece on the FED pivot is mind-blowing but what just happened take a look at this Costco sales once you take out a foreign exchange and gas benefits e-commerce sales in the last five weeks folks negative 12.7 that is if you now take inflation off of that they're down like 20 on e-commerce but then again e-commerce for Costco come on okay fine Let's ignore e-commerce well now you're down 1.5 percent in the US down two point four percent in Canada add inflation in guess what you're down about 10 10 percent inflation adjusted in real terms in the last five weeks in Canada in the last 31 weeks or Canada and the U.S in the last 31 weeks you're also on a real basis that is inflation-adjusted Basis negative if you don't provide uh the uh the uh adjustment for foreign exchange and gas what we find is that the five weeks ending April 2nd saw an increase of only half of a percent from last year they're basically flat there is no growth left at Costco even with inflation there is no growth left so what gets hit next what gets hit next is nothing other than margin that's the way it works margin gets hit next now Beyond this we need to talk about this JP Morgan recession piece because it's huge JPMorgan is basically telling you as soon as possible you should Hedge for the FED pivot that is approaching because guess what it is a problem and you should be prepared for the FED pivot but wait a minute what fed pivot because Kevin aren't there different types of fed pivots yes and in this segment we are going to talk about those particular pieces now I want to be very very clear we have to remember that there is a 69 off coupon cod that makes me very happy when you check it out because it is what enables me to come back every single day and it is what makes me frantically look for Content updates every single day and quality information like this so if you like what you're about to hear think about how you can get an expansion of this lifetime access to not just the lectures on building your world but the course member live streams linked down below and you're guaranteed the best price going forward so what do we have here well we have Market implied Fed rate expectations showing the market is expecting a pivot to be delivered over the next two to three meetings by the Federal Reserve looking at market performance around previous fed Cuts suggests that near-term upside is limited if Market implied timing is correct post Cuts markets have sold off strong if Cuts were delivered ahead of recessions while markets performed well if Cuts were delivered preemptively and managed to re-accelerate growth from today's point of view it's hard to construct a sustainable bull case and further downside appears more likely we believe the case for putting on hedges in this juncture is very strong especially if these are funded by shorting upside that's called selling calls by the way thus which you learn about in the stocks and site Group by the way thus reflecting the asymmetrical risk we see in near-term equity markets okay fantastic now what does this mean okay let me try to simplify this very quickly so here's what this means there are two different types of pivots and this is very important to understand because I have been pounding the table over the FED pivot for the last six months and I've been yelling at this idea about there's a difference between the FED pivot and the FED U-turn and today folks JP Morgan finally finally finally some somebody else acknowledged that there are two different types of pivots I am so grateful that finally somebody has acknowledged that there is a different type of pivot because what I keep seeing on YouTube is this moronic chart that doesn't show you that there are two types of pivots this is the only chart you see this is the only chart it shows fed pivot and then a big minus sign but they forget the U-turn pivots and so I've obviously made many videos talking about how the u-turns are blatant u-turns are actually where these little X's are these green x's and the u-turns tend to mark a bottom in stocks which means stocks rally after the u-turn so what's the difference between a pivot and a U-turn well thank the Lord finally somebody and this somebody being JP Morgan has put together a phenomenal piece to explain it to us now I'm going to read their piece first to you after I read their piece to you I am going to translate it to English but I think both of them are very important okay so we believe the upcoming fed meeting on May 3rd or on June 14th could turn out to be a pivotal moment for the near-term direction of markets so in other words expect an inflection point coming to markets very very soon this is going to be important okay Market implied rates are showing a 45 probability of rate hikes or an 11 basis point uh hike for May okay we can't hike by 11 BP but when they say that that's just what what the average is right so they're basically saying 45 percent times 0.25 is about 11.
that's roughly what they're trying to say here okay the cuts from July onward would then occur with the market pricing in 2.6 cuts by the year end JP Morgan thinks there's going to be a hike of 25 basis points in May before the potential pivot starting as soon as June or July JPMorgan is expecting 200 000 jobs in the jobs report tomorrow fine that doesn't matter so much now Powell has indicated in March a dove a shift would not be a reflection of conviction around inflation Dynamics but a recognition that tighter credit conditions could contribute to slowing growth so I wrote on this I'm torn on that I actually do not think the Federal Reserve will pivot at all ever until inflation is convincingly on the path down that is very clear to me it's very clear to me because the Federal Reserve is a necessitating that inflation expectations remain low by the way unemployment claims uh just coming out now unemployment claims coming in at 228 that is above the survey of 200 000 that suggests a weaker economy continuing claims coming in at 1.823 million versus the survey of 1.7 million both of these numbers higher than expected holy crap the prior revision holy crap the prior revision was now we have the unemployment claims of last month move from 198k to 246.
that is a a massive 25 revision to the prior number and the continuing claims for the prior month were moved from 1.689 to 1.817 million in other words the economy already much weaker than the data is showing much weaker than the data is showing that is recessionary news recessionary news Okay recessionary news just out in the midst of recording this now continuing on here looking past the pivots okay so let me finish the thought here so finishing the thought of me being torn on this I don't think the FED pivots until they are convinced inflation is down that will be become that will become very very important when I explain the two different types of pivots using a JPMorgan as an aide here looking at past pivots suggests that the Steep yield curve inversion we are seeing now would have triggered a rate cut already had it not been for this highly unusual inflation that's important very important to remember because what they're saying is at this point the yield curve is already so inverted we are in such a recessionary environment the FED has beaten this economy to the ground so heavily they have taken our neck and driven it into the mud for so long that we're already choking with a lack of oxygen that ordinarily the FED would have cut by now so JP Morgan can't even get it straight here on one hand they're like well ordinarily they would have cut by now but they're not cutting because inflation is high exactly this is why this Dove a shift has everything to do with inflation Dynamics so JP Morgan kind of contradicting themselves right here a little bit but that's just my opinion but then again I I I I like to uh add criticism and commentary the reason we expect a strong risk-off reaction in June If the Fed does not indicate a pivot is that the FED may have already over tightened increasing the likelihood of a deep recession all right so the first lesson that you need to take away from this JPM piece the first thing that you need to take away we're going to go through this order so actually I should say first we talked about Costco that's the weakening of Staples this is why you want to be finding those at meet kevin.com pricingpower stocks meet kevin.com to learn more about this uh then you're going to learn about the JPMorgan argument that if the FED does not pivot by June markets price in in more severe recession this is actually compounded by data that we just got minutes ago about unemployment claims we use the UI even though that stands for unemployment insurance that tends to be a a a away the government refers to unemployment but anyway all right so that means potentially over tightening right so that's over tightening okay but you're going to learn something else now so JP Morgan assumes a lag time of six months this suggests we have only seen about half of the pain of rate hikes now I want you to think about that from a banking crisis point of view from a banking crisis point of view we have only seen half of the rate hikes about 2.5 percent which means that the banking crisis or uh the crimp on economy on the economy could be just 50 percent progressed now In fairness uh worth sort of hedging this on the banking crisis side banking crisis does though benefit from lower T yields uh and those T yields have been falling which helps prevent a continuation of the banking crisis that's why in my opinion we haven't actually seen the banking crisis continue and more Banks defaulting because bonds have risen remember bonds rise in price when yields fall just just remember that bottom line right there we don't have to fully explain it right now uh okay good so there's going to be in more there's a lot in this piece okay uh by the way but shout out to stream yard uh stream yards really cool they're letting me stream this in a hotel right now uh not only that but I'll be able to edit this video using the stream yard platform later it's really cool so not only can you record video with it you throw up banners throw up the little ticker at the bottom that you see I could throw up comments as well like there's somebody here watching on strip oh I saw on that strip on on Twitch uh chillix says I'm in the hospital watching well I hope you recover whatever your problem is and now you're sending a little prince Emoji fantastic so anyway check out house um sorry stream yard by kevin.com paid promotion there so what do we have here we have the lag time uh then we have talk about commercial real estate losses potentially 350 to 400 billion dollars of commercial real estate losses which would approach the level of losses seen in the great financial crisis but that's not even the fun part ready for the fun part this is the fun part this is this is a lot I urge you to buckle up I'm going to make this as simple as possible and so if somebody says highlight me bro I will do that all right buckle up but this could be the most important video that you watch on the FED pivot and if somebody once again comes and starts complaining and saying stocks are definitely going to go down in the FED pivot I'm going to choke them and I'm going to make them get life insurance and then I'm going to choke them uh anyway all right listen to this actually I'm going to make this a little simpler you see this chart okay this chart says that in the blue line stocks go up after the FED pivot where is the Fed pivot it's right here in the middle see where I put the P fed pivot f p fed pivot middle okay so that means there's an inflection point here and here let's actually draw that in green here and here is where the inflection point is right where the FED pivot is so why is it that on one hand stocks go up and in the other fed pivot stocks go down what's the difference again this could potentially be the most important video you watch on understanding the FED pivot let's explain it using jpmorgan's words then I will use my own by January of 2024 the market is expecting 3.5 rate Cuts or 85 basis points of rate cuts a JPS JPMorgan macro strategist pointed out if the FED had cut rates at the speed it was cutting because the economy had already entered into a recession in 1990 2001 and 2007 when it started easing as a reaction to Market stress or mild slowdowns uh in 87 89 95 98 growth eventually picked up okay I'm going to translate this because this is complicated basically they're saying the FED pivoted once in 90 2001 and 2007.
then you had these different fed pivots we're going to talk about those in a moment and they hear they talk about there's a distinction between the pivots there's a mid-cycle pivot or a pre-recession pivot and both of those lead to different reactions in the market so pre-cycle and mid-cycle okay let's start here with this pre-recession a pre-recession pivot is the typical pivot people talk about a pre-recession pivot is bad this is when the FED has lost control lost the lead this is when the FED has no control when the FED has lost control it means they have over tightened and because they have over tightened and the FED has once again screwed up and they have lost control the FED may actually have created a recession without conquering inflation which ultimately is the worst case scenario a pre-recession pivot is bad so a PRP is actually this red line here in a p r p stocks go down in a pre-recession pivot stocks go down however in a mid-cycle pivot in other words Kevin's U-turn which I've been banging the table about for actually since January of 2022.
since January of 2022 I've been saying wait for the FED U-turn the FED U-turn will be glorious the FED U-turn has happened in 87 in 89 as they mentioned in the 90s during the soft Landing but more importantly it happened in 87 2003 and 2009. the FED U-turn is what you want the FED U-turn is the Fed saying okay basically we're going to turn the money printers on because we have the end of the tightening cycle is here we may have tightened too far inflation has been conquered and because inflation is conquered we are going to turn the money printers on like crazy and prevent a nasty recession we're going to cut bigly and we're going to go back to quantitative easing okay that then leads to the following chart in a U-turn scenario in three months after a U-turn scenario stonks my friends stonks go up almost every sector of stocks goes up after a Fed u-turn which is a mid-cycle pivot however almost every sector of the stock market goes down in a pre-recession pivot this is the most important distinction and I think probably one of the most important videos and that's why it will feature every single sponsor that Kevin can possibly think about from phenomenal platform from Life Insurance you can get into those five minutes by going to my kevin.com life and of course streamyard how I stream this video making an outcome stream so what do we know about this well what we know about this is the following JP Morgan and their opinion is that we are actually more likely to see a pre-recession rate cut in other words JP Morgan is taking the bearish point of view JP Morgan does not believe inflation will be solved Timely so let's go to our conclusion page here okay so let's zoom out on the conclusion page let's do number four JPMorgan believes we are going to get a pre-recession pivot the bad pivot that's bad for pretty much all stocks and it's likely If the Fed does not control inflation that would be bad it's the stagflationary recession higher for longer it's painful stay in cash uh yeah protect yourself okay then there is the other potential this is the Kevin belief okay so it's either JP Morgan or Kevin here okay if you believe them maybe we can still have a cup of coffee together but if you believe me we can go skiing together all right Kevin believes you know I do flip-flop a lot but I think on really important things I don't uh I have maintained Kevin has believed since January of 2022 that a massive fed U-turn will come as soon as inflation proves transitory okay we're still just now in that process labor inflation is basically gone look at any earnings call from Chipotle Starbucks Uber Lyft Darden McDonald's any of the recent earnings calls cloudflare that we've been looking at in terms of of of of people actually earning wages wages have capped wage growth is slowing substantially inflation is going to go away the substantial uh supply chain shortages that we had are going to turn into massive supply chain gluts a glut by the way is uh is a massive amount of uh of uh of of Supply uh someone here commented hey and you're a mod too that's it you're demodded because you have a different opinion than me I'm just kidding I'm not going to do that it's fine somebody here writes two-year experience Kevin hey man that's an insult it's like 13 years okay come on man okay 13 years of experience versus 100 year old JPM all right let's make this let's let's just uh let's just make a comparison over here okay you ready for this comparison January of 2022 Kevin meets with JPM strategists for dinner those strategists include people who used to work at the Fed Kevin says we are going into recession I'm selling bye JPM says we see a 15 chance of recession okay that was January of 2022 actually happened I have proof actually happened uh I had a fight over that dinner table and as the only person pounding the table going you need to wait for the FED U-turn basically okay now there's a chance the stock market May bottom before the U-turn because the U-turn is so clearly uh established now but the point is that was my opinion in January of 2022.
I was very clear about that I've always been very clear about that and my opinion has not changed on that okay I just believe the bottom will come before the actual U-turn this cycle uh just based on my estimations now yeah I could be wrong now Kevin is saying yes still recession shallow recession but shallow but we will have the FED U-turn because inflation proves to be transitory JP Morgan is saying okay fine yes we're going to go into a recession but inflation won't be transitory so pick your side pick your side it's totally fine like I still I still like you uh and and like I mean I went to Peter schiff's house what do you think Peter Schiff uh uh thinks about all this I mean I think it's obvious you could watch the interview so I think it's very obvious that people have different opinions and you can still get along with other people but let's be very clear this is what we're looking ahead at either a U-turn or a pivot it's very simple and if you want my perspectives first make sure you join those programs by building your wealth I get regular emails of people say Kevin I watch you every day because you give me so many trade ideas and I made so much money listening to your content uh whether it's in the course member lives or otherwise and so thank you and shout out to those people uh obviously no guarantees I mean yes I'm a licensed financial advisor but I can't give you personalized Financial advice I can't do it for you if I could do it for you okay you know we'd all be rich um but uh but I could definitely share my insights as much as possible so uh let's let's just put a conclusion on this because I think it's it's pretty pretty powerful JPMorgan finally after a year we finally have an institution responding to this fraudulent argument that the pivot only exists in a bad Direction finally finally we have the realization that there are two forms of a pivot I've been screaming it for months and finally we have institutional analysis on it thank God oh you know what we should do let's do a quick poll I think this would be really cool so what we're going to do is we are going to pull the live audience now remember I like to stream daily I I really try my hardest to start at 4 20 a.m Pacific time I am usually late but that is my goal I'm going to now run a poll to those of you in the audience you turn positive uh or let's do fed u-turn good for stocks or PRP pre-recession pivot bad for stocks pre-r pivot you turn let's run a poll and in about a minute I'm only going to give about 60 seconds to see what your thoughts are on the poll the poll is Live Now go to the chat answer the poll question I don't mind taking the L if I'm if I'm wrong but at least I'll give you my opinion uh so again uh I'm convinced that inflation is coming down I am also convinced that the FED has overtyped I am also convinced that the FED is probably going to go with the 25 basis point uh hike I believe the FED is going to keep doing that because I I believe this okay I'm gonna pretend to be Jay Powell uh and uh and then we're gonna go through the poll results okay ready if I'm Jay Powell this is my opinion and this is not going to sound anything like Jerome Powell but I'm going to use I don't know probably agenda templates or something like that because it's funny to me it doesn't have to be funny to you um J pair and I know we have to keep inflation expectations anchored so I'm just going to keep saying that there's upside risk and um we're gonna just uh do another hike uh because psychologically we're gonna get to five percent and then once we're at five percent uh we we will have about lots of time and we'll have hopefully gotten lots of reports to convince us that inflation is down and then maybe we'll Purge but after we purge we can never go up again because we don't want to repeat the mistakes in the 70s or 80s uh we don't want to Aaron Burr markets and we technically don't want to power vocal markets because I want my face on Mount Rushmore and if I could stick a shaft Landing I will go down as a hero so therefore as Jerome power I would uh really like inflation to be transitory but I'm going to trick people into thinking I'm going to hike us into Oblivion but I'm basically just going to cut rates on Sunday five percent to zero and uh and and we'll go back to the Moon all right that's that's my take terrible terrible impression uh it's that's okay all right now the results of the poll uh out of 6 000 of you watching only 809 of you voted what are you doing are you sitting on the toilet like unable to push a button it's fine I respect you anyway I understand people turn me on just to listen to me ooh all right u-turn 60 percent pre-recession pivot bad for stocks 39 out of 820 votes okay pretty good I'm sure that's statistically significant so all right that ends now JPMorgan recession piece and my thoughts on shape oh
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