저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
금은 장기 구조적 수요로 상승 중이며 기관·개인 신규 매수와 중앙은행 매입 확대가 예상된다. 금 3,900달러대 조정은 이미 끝났을 가능성이 크고 하방 여력은 제한적이다. 연준 추가 금리인하와 QE 재개가 예상되며, 비트코인 약세는 안전자산 자금 유입의 선행지표일 수 있다. 은도 장기 상승 전 축적 단계로 본다.
다듬은 글
you know, mainstream Wall Street investors, both institutional and and retail, are just finally finally noticing gold and deciding that they should make it a part of their portfolio. And this is after, you know, gold is up, you know, 11 12x this century. Uh the Dow is down, you know, close to 70% priced in gold since peaking in 1999.
So gold has outperformed the markets yet investors haven't even noticed that really until just recently. And I don't think that the fact that they've now decided that gold should be included in a portfolio whereas before it had no place in a portfolio. I don't think that is going to change because oh my god now gold's 3900 and not 4,300.
I think you're going to start to see more accumulation of gold uh from investors who never bought any. And I think the central banks that have been the drivers for the past couple years, I think they're actually going to pick up the pace. Peter Schiff's warnings are now serving as a roadmap for the financial realities of 2025.
Beneath the surface, something far more significant was taking place as markets fluctuated wildly between optimism and panic. Growing debt, growing fiscal deficits, a declining currency, and central banks covertly getting ready for the next round of monetary intervention were all signs of the world economy's vulnerabilities.
Shift's central thesis remain constant over all of this turmoil. The days of cheap money are over, and the repercussions are finally being felt. Shift is not surprised by gold's unrelenting increase this year. Rather, it is confirmation. Gold moved with perfect clarity while bond markets erupted, tech volatility increased, and geopolitical divisions widened.
It repeatedly reached new all-time highs, surpassing defensive industries, outperforming stocks, and demonstrating once more that real money is unaffected by a world engulfed in debt. Shift contends that this is only the first act and not the final act. If you want more content on . And I thought maybe you could just start by situating with us in terms of where you think we are in the cycle right now.
Well, even, you know, characterizing it as a pullback. I mean, we're 3,950 as we're talking. We've only pulled back from a level that we reached for a day, right? We had a a quick move up, but the fact that we're just below 4,000, doesn't really feel like it's a pullback. Um, it's only a pullback in relation to the fact that we almost hit 4,400, which was crazy in that it only took us maybe a week to get there from hitting 4,000.
So, if you throw that week or two out and just look at where we are, we've gone up a lot on the year. And I think sentiment, it's interesting how such a sharp decline can turn the sentiment to get everybody thinking that this is now potentially a bare market already in gold uh and that there's a lot of downside risk.
I think that's kind of what the market was trying to do in shaking out uh some of the newer entrance uh that you know may not really have the conviction or maybe came in with some leverage and have been flushed out of the market but we've created a lot more um I guess nervousness so that we can climb that wall of worry and so as far as I'm concerned if this is a correction it's probably already over.
I don't think there's that much downside in the price of gold from here. And the same thing with silver. I mean, silver didn't hold above 50, but it did take out 50, which is something it never did really in 1980 or 2011. We got almost to 55. Uh, and now we've had a pullback. But yeah, look, I I just think we're early in a a broader bull market.
I think that investors, you know, mainstream Wall Street investors, both institutional and and retail are just finally finally noticing gold and deciding that they should make it a part of their portfolio. And this is after, you know, gold is up, you know, 11 12x this century. uh the Dow is down, you know, close to 70% priced in gold since peaking in 1999.
So gold has outperformed the markets, yet investors haven't even noticed that really until just recently. And I don't think that the fact that they've now decided that gold should be included in a portfolio whereas before it had no place in a portfolio. I don't think that is going to change because oh my god now gold's 3,900 and not 4,300.
I think you're going to start to see more accumulation of gold uh from investors who never bought any. And I think the central banks that have been the drivers for the past couple years, I think they're actually going to pick up the pace uh of their gold buying, I think more central banks that that weren't buying gold are now going to start buying as well.
So, I think there's a lot of new demand coming from gold and I don't see a lot of new supply. I mean, there's some uh but not nearly enough. So we are seeing this this demand come in from people who are new to the gold market. And people who come to this event, people who are in gold, they're usually used to being the contrarian.
So if they see the mainstream coming in, maybe they feel a little bit uncomfortable. So anything you'd say to those people? Well, I you know, I I think it's still contrarian in that now that the mainstream is dipping its toe in the water, it's still, you know, a small percentage of mainstream investors.
So, I think we've got a ways to go before it's kind of a crowded trade. Uh, if you want to see, you know, something that seems crowded or or bubbleicious, look at what happened in crypto. Look at the enthusiasm. You know, this is, I think, the oldest uh gold conference. You know, it's been going on for what is it 50 years.
You know, the New Orleans conference. And there's, you know, there's more people here than last year. here, I think. But it's there's not a thousand attendees. It's less. I forget 600, 700. I was at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas over the summer. There were 3540,000 people who paid to attend. Um, you know, so we're nowhere near there.
You know, we we don't have that kind of level of interest or or enthusiasm. And when I was at that conference, nobody was worried about the Bitcoin price going down. I mean, everybody was 100% convinced it was going to a million or higher. But here, you know, you get a lot of people at the gold conference, well, you know, they're they're nervous that we could get a pull back and they're not like crazy enthusiastic that we're going to be a$10,000 $20,000 goal next year.
Um, so, you know, I think it's still early. You know, the the people in in in Bitcoin are they're convinced that they're early. And I was trying to point out when you have 35,000 people at a conference, it's not early. You know, I've been going to investment conferences. That's the biggest one I've ever been to.
Uh, and so that shows you that, you know, a lot of people are already involved. You know, you're not you're not getting in on the ground floor when the conference is that big. Realizing that none of this is motivated by hype is essential to comprehending shift's worldview. Precious metals move in accordance with deep long-term structural dynamics rather than the fast emotional cycles that characterize today's markets.
The 2025 gold surge was neither a bubble nor a speculative frenzy. It was a covert repricing of confidence in the banking system by the market. Silver's slow pace also doesn't indicate weakness. It's the pre-release buildup. Silver doesn't just rise, it soarses when liquidity expectations change and the dollar begins to weaken due to rising government debt and expanding balance sheets.
And the first indications of that pivotal moment are already apparent. After ignoring silver for almost 10 years, investors are now paying attention to it once more because they are aware of the future. Major industrial buyers are securing long-term supply. Most significantly, indications of strain rather than stability are being sent by the bond market, which is the true center of the world economy.
Additionally, capital needs a safe place to stay when a new wave of liquidity collides with financial stress. That house is hardly ever stocks in the latter stages of the economic cycle. Now, let's get back and hear his following words. And speaking of, I know you've said this isn't really that big of a pullback, but people are are looking at it that way, and I think they wonder, all right, what's going to spark the next move higher for gold and silver prices.
So, what would you pull out for that? Yeah. Well, we just got a rate cut by the Fed, and that didn't seem to be the trigger. Um, I think we're going to get another rate cut despite the fact that, um, Pal kind of said it wasn't a lock. you know, the markets kind of priced it in and he kind of pushed back against that.
But at the end of the day, I think there's going to be another cut because I think the economic data is going to continue to disappoint. Now, we're not getting as much data as normal because of the government shutdown, but it's possible that they end that government shutdown and we get a deluge of bad economic data that could be a catalyst uh for a big another move up, you know, in the price of gold uh as people start to, you know, factor that in.
And the Fed at its last FOMC meeting announced that QT is officially ending in December. So, I think another big catalyst will be the the launch of the next round of quantitative easing, which I believe is coming. I I I thought it would have actually happened already. So, I'm kind of surprised they were able to make it through the entire year without doing it.
Uh but I think 2026 will be the year that they, you know, crank up the presses again, especially if they continue to see uh weakness in the longer end of the bond market. And then of course you do have, you know, some court decisions, you know, on the tariffs, on the firing of Lisa Cook. Uh, I think that could have implications for the dollar and and for gold.
So, do you think quantity easing starts under Powell or do we wait until his term is over? We've got this new Fed chair in that's probably going to be more Trump aligned. How are you seeing it? Yeah, you know, it's hard to say. I forget how how when does Pal leave? Midway through the year. May. I mean, I guess it's about 5050 that, you know, they that they can hold off on QE.
It kind of depends on what happens, but I think if you start to see a big move down in the stock market or something that might scare the administration, there'll be a lot more pressure. I mean, we'll see. I mean, today, you know, we're getting, you know, a decent decline in stocks. I know Bitcoin, you know, broke below 100,000 for the first time in about four months.
Um and you know that could be a little bit of a leading indicator uh that you know people are starting to take risk off and it may not just be crypto. It may be a broaderbased riskoff trade. Um which also could see some money flowing back into gold as a safe haven investment. And I think as the air comes out of the the the Bitcoin bubble and people begin to question the digital gold narrative, which which they should because it's just just a meme, um to the extent that people wake up to the reality that Bitcoin isn't digital gold, well then maybe they'll buy real gold instead.
And so there could be a source of some extra gold buying from people who either get out of Bitcoin or instead of buying Bitcoin decide to buy the real gold, right? instead of some fake version of it. Despite Powell's attempts to minimize the probability, Schiff clarified that the latest Fed rate decrease wasn't the true cause of gold's movement and that he still thinks another cut is on the horizon.
More easing has already been priced in by the markets. And Shift anticipates that the Fed will be forced to act due to poor economic statistics. We haven't seen the entire economic picture yet due to the government shutdown, but Shift believes the incoming data will probably be extremely negative once the shutdown is over.
As investors respond to that deluge of negative data, gold prices may rise once more. He also brought up a significant point. The Fed formally declared that quantitative tightening would finish in December at the most recent FOMC meeting. That's a red flag for Schiff. He thinks there will soon be another round of quantitative easing.
He is shocked that the Fed survived the year without restarting the money printers, even though he had anticipated it earlier. He also brought up a number of legal decisions, tariffs, and Lisa Cook's dismissal that might have an effect on the currency and gold. Schiff responded that it's difficult to anticipate if QE would begin under Powell or the next Fed chair.
Powell departs in the middle of the year and the severity of the markets will determine whether QE resumes before or after. The administration might advocate for easing sooner if stocks sell off significantly. He said that Bitcoin had fallen below $100,000 for the first time in months and that stocks have already declined today.
That might be the first indication of a larger risk off movement which often directs funds toward gold and other safe havens. .
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