저자: KerryArteche · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가가 목요일 큰 매도세로 주요 지지선 아래로 밀렸다고 진단. 주간 종가 기준 350선 회복 실패로 매도 신호 확인. 27287~28106 구간이 핵심 지지로, 이 위를 지키면 2~3주 내 350선 회복 가능, 27287 이탈 시 22186 및 장기적으로 159~165 구간까지 하락 가능성 제시. 단기 반등 여지는 있으나 다수 기간 지지로는 약하다고 평가. 영상 말미에 자사 유료 서비스 홍보.
다듬은 글
Hi, this is Kerry Arteche Friday, June 6th, 2025. Let's take a look at the charts. Uh big sell-off on Thursday. We'll get into that in a second, but the bottom line is we have yet to close a weekly session above the low 350s key overhead long-term resistance. Last week we certainly pushed through it, even closed above it a couple of days, but we mentioned in terms of the long-term price swings, you can't count on the buy signal unless we close above the 35139 to 35260 area on a weekly basis.
Didn't happen. That in itself, the fact that we closed back below it at the end of the next of last week, was a sign of a market that had rejected, at least on the daily chart, that buy signal. Market then predisposed to bearish rotation. We didn't sign off on the sell signal fully until we closed uh just a couple of days ago, and this is Wednesday where we closed below the 34910 rising channel bottom.
That was our go with to 28106, or in other words, the channel bottom that we now find at 28106. It was in the upper 270s yesterday, the mid 270s a few days ago, etc., etc., etc. So, we tested this channel bottom. We also on Friday opened just below the 260 uh sorry, 32634 channel uh bottom, and that was also a sign of weakness.
We broke a 3/8 Fibonacci on the way down. Uh obviously, there's a a verbal war going on right now between Donald Trump and Elon Musk that apparently has bearish consequences for Tesla. Uh so, you know, I'm not quite sure how all that math adds up, uh but here we are. So, 28106 is still a viable support level.
A viable especially if you've been short for the last couple of weeks. If you've been short for the last couple of days, depending on your trading time horizon, either one would have been valid. 28106 is a profit taking area, and I'm going to throw in a 5/8 Fibonacci that we fell to within about a half a point of on Thursday.
27287. A nine eight and a half point roughly range, a little bit more than an eight and a half point range, that above which, above 28106, a recovery can ensue, possibly back into the low 350s again over the next two to three weeks. With present volatility, that would be two to three days, but I don't see a spike out of here over the next two to three days.
I do see within one to two weeks a return to the low 350s, holding above 28106. Conversely, if we close below 27287, just the opposite. Within a week or two, present volatility within a day or two, but I think realistically within a full week or two of activity, a return to 22186. We could get a nice bounce here for a few days.
I don't see 22186 though as a support level you want to buy on a multi-week basis. Hence, three stars only. Four stars multi-week is the 27287 to 28106 area. Above which we can recoup lost trade, we can recoup the losses that have played out over the last week of trade back into the low 350s again over the next week or two.
If we close below 27287 over the next week or two, 22186. And also, I think if we close below 27287, I see longer term bearish continuation uh down into the uh potentially, anyway, the upper 150s, the mid-160s. This is a long-term 5-year channel bottom. Uh and I'm going to call that a a 1-to-2 month target.
With present volatility, a 3-to-5 week. That's not going to hold. I think it's more like a 2-month uh target, wherein within a week or two we test 221.86, which we find down here on the chart. This is a 1-to-2 week trade. If we break 221.86 shortly after testing it, then yes, we're talking a 3-to-5 week sell-off into the 159.04 to 165.15 area.
I know that seems far-fetched, but I've seen it before, and I know you have, too. This can happen. With a settlement below 272.87, I see no good reason to be long Tesla if your time horizon is longer-term. In other words, 3-to-5 weeks out to 2-to-3 months, because I do think the emphasis remains uh on the defensive.
I think the emphasis remains one of actually testing the uh we'll just call it the lower 160s. This 159.04 5-year channel bottom is rising gradually. And so, that would be the anticipated outcome with a settlement below 272.87. If you're a 1-to-2 week swing trader, you can play the short side with a settlement today below 272.87, expecting 221.86 within a week or two.
This could also be continued meltdown. I don't think that that's going to play out here. I think there's a decent chance that yesterday's low was the low. Uh we could continue testing this zone today. We didn't bounce that much. Um where we wherein we could form a near-term low here. But a near-term for me is a 2-to-3 week low.
Over the next week or two, once again, from 272.87 to 281.06, we can rally back into the 351.39 to 352.06 area. But if we close below 272.87, just the opposite, as I've already articulated. Uh now for the upside, we've got 309.31. With present volatility, that's that's in reach today, perhaps. On the way up, we have all these minor points.
You know, we we just might top out for the day at 309.31. I do want to emphasize that. All these minor points on the way up have been carefully chosen. 92.01, 98.79, etc., etc. But 309.31 is in reach today above 281.06. This is actually a day trade uh that I think you can play. And 309.31, I think we could have actually made this a session containment level um because it is far away from present price points.
Um if we do, and I think one of the reasons why we called it intraday only is because if we do rip through 309.31, 326.34 is attainable today. This is a solid level that can be sold on a daily basis, but I just don't see that today. I think 309.31 is very sellable for um day traders, not just aggressive day traders, but day traders.
We could potentially fall back from here over the following day or two. But, you know, the takeaway is um if you've been short, you're covering now, or you've been or you have covered. Maybe you reversed and went long, and that is a valid approach so long as we hold above 281.06. If we close below 272.87, it is reverse and play the short side down to 221.86 within a week or two.
And as I've already said, um there we go. As I've already said, uh we could unwind within a couple of months into the lower 160s. But getting back to the upside, you know, this has been such a ferocious sell-off, you know, it really is uh 309.31 uh today to the upside. And where is that chart that I think is attainable and sellable.
If you're long, uh if you're a day trader and you're long, it's a great area to profits uh into Monday. If we close above 309.31, which I think is a long shot, I think what's happening now with the White House and Elon Musk, that's going to have to flush itself out for a while. And the the battle continues, and it looks like it's going to have a real limiting effect, limiting impact on Tesla's ability to sell, to maintain or regain market share.
If all that comes into sort of the collective thinking on this stock over the next day or two or three, then a settlement below 272.87, I see no compelling reason to be long Tesla. I do see a good reason to be long Tesla now on a near-term basis only. Holding above 272.87 to 281.06, you might reach for low 350 strike prices, 350, 355 strikes that don't expire for a couple of weeks, three, four weeks, because over that time frame we can regain lost ground and rally back into this area, which is sellable yet again.
And so that is your two to three weeks swing trade. It really is above 281.06 anticipating the low 350s. And if we close below the low 220s. And yes, quite possibly, as we continue through the month of July, the low 160s wouldn't surprise me. I see no compelling reason to be long Tesla on a long-term basis through the rest of the year until either we A, close any week above the 352.60 channel top, or B, we approach the 159.04 five-year channel bottom.
Those are the two extremes. Until then, we can continue south. That becomes clearly indicated today with a settlement below 272.87. I think I've said it enough. This week, just on Thursday alone, weeklystocks.com put out two stock picks, one on Adobe and the other on Dana Holdings. You know, earlier in the week on Monday, we put out a stock pick on Tempest AI.
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