저자: KerryArtekch · 외국인
요약 보기
테슬라 주가는 최근 급락 후 28282 지지선 부근에 있으며, 단기적으로 30931 돌파 시 32948, 이후 350 부근 저항까지 반등 가능성을 봄. 다만 28282 및 27287 하향 이탈 시 22186, 장기적으로 15950~16560까지 하락 가능성을 제시. 원문은 자동 생성 자막으로 가격 숫자에 오인식이 많음. 유료 서비스 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Hi, this is Kerry Artekch Monday, June 9th, 2025. Let's take a look at the charts. Start with the big picture. Uh price ceiling well above the market now in the low 350s. You got 35939. It is still a 50% upside retracement from that December high against the more recent April low. And you also have a 2-year channel top.
They continue to behave well, these longer term structures. Uh especially if they behaved relatively well before that. And I do say uh that it did. Uh it was back in uh I think this was November of last year that we closed for the first time above this two-year structure that set up the five-year structure at 51551 as a likely 3 to five month target.
It took about 3 weeks before we closed in on it. Did not test it. Fell away. We did break uh did test that channel top on the way down. Got a bit of a slight bounce for a week. um but we closed below it the following week and then continued cascade south. And so it's been a little sloppy uh to say the least.
What I mean by that is we've pushed through this area on an intraweek basis only. I'll show you the daily chart right here. You can see and you probably remember this well a week week and a half ago where we had closed above it on a daily basis then awaiting a possible weekly settlement above the same area for a green light on a longerterm position trade on a longerterm buy signal that would have likely or at least anticipated the 5151 channel top once again quite possibly by the end of the year but that wasn't to be of course and that we did not get the buy signal Overall, we were mentioning how you can play the short side just based on the fact that the market closed the week back below this area.
And it really was just a couple of days later. If you recall, this would have been uh Wednesday of last week that we closed below this uh recently formed rising channel bottom that is now at 350.87. Um and um that was our sell signal. That was our go with sell signal down to the channel bottom that is now at 28282.
We were mentioning if you recall 2 to three maybe 3 to 5 weeks. Now obviously facts on the ground the uh the verbal war between Trump and Musk. Uh this obviously played out. This was the impetus. But technically speaking, we were on the short side of the market when the big sell-off occurred. And we did test this channel bottom at 28282, which is still viable support over the only 2 to 3 week time frame.
From here, we can round back up into the low 350s again where we still have a trouble spot uh as we look at this weekly chart once again at 35139 to 35314. So if you're a 2 to 3 week swing trader, you can buy 28282 if you haven't already on weakness, anticipating the low 350s over the next uh one to three weeks depending on volatility of course.
Now on the way up we have 32948. I don't expect to see that today, but on the way up we do have a 38 upside Fibonacci at 30931. Now, as the market relaxes into a a more constrained volatility, some of these levels can be bumped up like 30931. I'm very comfortable with it as an intraday resistance level.
And I could almost call it a session containment. Holding below 30931 will keep 28282 in reach again over the next day or two. I'm not encouraging you to sell 30931 and hold it overnight. uh unless you know here's a scenario where we test it early in the day and we fall away and perhaps even close negative on the day close back below you know Friday's 29514 low for instance or settlement price rather uh that would then likely result in a test of 28282 on Tuesday tomorrow.
So that is just one scenario. But you know if we push through 30931 today uh that should set off follow-through buying to 32948 quite possibly on an intraday basis. So you know uh there's two scenarios. We push through 30931 early in the day and then reach 32948 intraday where a daily high can be placed and we might even fall away from 32948 for more than a day because it does correlate with this low area going back several weeks.
Um you know so that is one scenario. The other scenario is merely closing above 30931 today does set up 32948 tomorrow into Wednesday where once again we can top out on a daily basis and possibly fall away again into later week. It would be a settlement about 329.48 and I don't see that today but possible by the end of the week or later in the week that we close about 32948 and that only sets up roughly another 20 point move to the upside wherein we would retest this low 350s which is once again kind of our 1 to2 week objective.
three at the very most with reduced volatility. Holding above 28282 does maintain a low 350s target once again where we can top out uh you know on a weekly possibly monthly basis and fall away again. It would be a settlement above 35314 at the end of a week in the coming weeks. That would tell me we've got a good low through the rest of the year.
Likely continued gains into the low 500 region by the end of the year, but we're a long way from that right now. In fact, we can take a look at the downside. Uh downside uh we actually did uh last Thursday on the big sell-off uh come very close to testing I think within about a half a point the 58 downside Fibonacci.
So we have this really kind of a 10point range now. And the way I think you could play this is you're buying 28282 on weakness and whether that's a day trade or a three to five day swing trade back to 329.48 48 or a two to three week swing trade back to low 350s. That is all valid at or above the 28282 area.
U and so the these are two very close levels still. They're going to continue to open up over time. Uh 27287 is a static level. 28282 rises daily. For the time being, I'm going to call it a range of support. But at some point, the way I'm going to frame this, and you could almost right now, and that is to say that if we close below 28282, but we don't close below 27287, that could be an indication to exit a long position you may have established earlier that day.
Um, in terms of playing the short side, as we continue through the rest of June and actually into the third quarter, that could come off with a settlement below 272.87. So you're going long, staying long above 28282 on the 2 to 3 week time frame into the low 350s and then you're going short over the 1 to two week time frame below 27287 over the following week or two.
I would expect this 22186 low settlement price on the daily chart that was put out in April. But I do think if we close below 27287 that would obviously also involve a settlement below this rising channel bottom at the base of a move and that in itself is a significant sell signal. I think if we close below 28282 and let's throw in 27287 for good measure and a little bit more of a confirmation on a longerterm sell signal.
I think within 1 to two weeks you can anticipate 22186 but you can also anticipate within a month or two this long-term 5-year channel bottom at 15950 to 16560. So closing below this 58 Fibonacci at 27287, we do essentially have a double sell signal if you include the 28282 channel bottom. And I think by the end of July, perhaps by the end of August at the very latest, this 15950 to 16560 formation, this is a long-term channel bottom, 5 years, able to contain selling through the rest of the year and quite possibly through all of 26.
This is a base of long-term support for Tesla. If we take it out to the downside does not look good for Tesla as a company, as a corporation, the growth of the stock I think is seriously inhibited. Um but um you there's no point in going there. I don't expect it. I'm just kind of telling you what I would see on the charts if that were to happen say by the end of the year.
But for right now, you know, uh we're in a we're in a buy opportunity in the low 280s. expecting 30931 over the next day or two. Expecting 32948 over the next 3 to 5 days. And over the next couple of weeks, uh we can push right back into this low 350s where we have a real test of resistance. Um yeah, and if we can close the week, uh at least at this juncture above 35314, any week above 35314, it looks pretty good to the upside as we continue through the third quarter and into later year.
Uh this last week, WickedStstocks.com put out three stock picks. Uh Tempest AI, Adobe, and Dana Holdings. All of which are showing the potential for a 20 to 30% return on the underlying stock if the buy signal goes off. Uh and so we we put out two stock picks every week at wickedtocks.com. You can see Tempest, Adobe, and Dana Holdings right now by going to wicked.com and taking advantage of our 5-day free trial.
You'll also get two stock picks this week. Our daily triple Q, our daily SPY, our weekly Apple stock analysis, etc., etc. Go to wicked.com. Take advantage of our 5-day free trial. I will be back tomorrow with Tuesday's Tesla. You have a great day.
Comments 0