저자: Kevin · 외국인
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기술주 조정 국면에서 기관 헤지 확대와 10년물 금리 상승으로 추가 하락 가능성을 주장. 10년물 금리가 1.7~1.8%까지 오를 수 있다고 전망하며 기술주 추가 조정 및 연말 저가매수 기회를 언급. 본인은 LUCID·RIVIAN 풋옵션 등 단기 숏을 검토하고, ARKK 반대방향 ETF(SARK) 10만주 숏 포지션을 2주 내외로 보유하겠다고 밝힘. 강세 자산은 기존 보유 중인 장기 롱 포지션 유지.
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i may have released a pre-sale for a brand new course you might want to check that out down below as well it's different from all of the other courses my new three and a half million dollar short we're also going to talk about what i believe is happening in the market right now why the market is acting the way it is why it feels like pain is coming back to this market keep in mind if you want all notifications for when i buy or sell stocks whether i make a new move or a exit a move linked down below it's a program on building your wealth through investing in stocks and you'll love the foundations of building up your knowledge with the psychology of money and learning how this market functions without having to think the market's rigged because now you can play the game check it out get lifetime access to the lectures and you get access to all my buy sell alerts and course member live streams when you check it out check it out along with all the other programs linked down below and check out before black friday my black friday sale ads okay let's get into what's happening in the market and then we'll talk about this new uh big short here okay so first it's worth noting that a lot of institutional investors in my opinion and in the opinion of bloomberg researchers got into the tech rally a little bit late they uh and and when they got in late with a lot of money they ended up pumping up the values for stocks like tesla because they had missed out in my opinion lucid rivian because they had missed out on tesla runs they pumped up the values for companies like end phase or etsy or a firm these are really high quality companies that are trading at pretty expensive valuations there's a reason i've stopped buying these companies many many uh months ago well maybe not many months ago about two months ago we had a dip in september right into september early october that was a perfect time to buy people are always like oh but kevin you can't time the market it's like really like look at september it's worth looking at it again here take a peek at it and then i want you to compare where what the dip is that we have now compared to september i think it'll really help give you some perspective so take a look at this this was your september dip right here the end of september dip bottomed on about 9 20 double bottomed on about october 4th and then we took off like what we're experiencing now is nothing i mean look at that we've barely experienced anything yet however this is either going to be an inflection point or we're going to break through and see something where we end up trading under the 20-day moving average again for a few weeks as individuals are concerned about well what they're concerned about in this market now i'm going to talk about exactly what the concerns are in this market because uh not not everyone believes that the market could be at an inflection point and that it might rotate to the downside and that's okay like honestly i'd rather it not take a look at where the selling pressure is located it's mostly not in the dow the dow is relatively flat up 0.11 but it's in the s p and it's especially in the nasdaq nasdaq technologies down 1.5 today but the s p also down about half of a percent okay cool so why is this happening well i believe it's because we had a lot of institutional investors get into technology stocks relatively late okay fine so they pushed up valuations to do crazy highs now what like why all of a sudden would prices be falling for these companies what's the problem why are we seeing a sell-off especially after jerome powell got renominated like we were uncertain that if the federal reserve ends up getting a new nomination of somebody totally different then that would increase market uncertainty which would could lead to a potential market sell-off because well we don't know how another fed person would act right well something very interesting is happening and it's kind of the same thing in reverse the market is actually a little bit concerned that jerome powell is going to take longer to respond to inflation and because he's potentially going to take longer to respond to inflation we're going to end up with more inflation for longer and while this transitory inflation lasts longer we're starting to see the bond market and the stock market price in the fact that we might have to discount future earnings of higher valuation companies more now i'm going to talk about my big short in just a moment but i want to talk about the 10-year treasury look at the 10-year treasury from when jerome powell was re-nominated and compare it to where we stand now so what we're going to do is we're going to go to the 5-day because we know jay powell was re-nominated on monday monday was the 22nd take a look at this 10-year treasury yields on friday had fallen to a new low or recent low of about 1.53 as soon as j-pal was already nominated treasury yields jumped up to about 1.59 and they've been on a steady climb since then heading to about 1.662 if market history gives us any guide as to how much the market might price in treasury yields rising and how much longer pain could last in this market it's worth taking a look at what we previously had in september october and in march through may take a look at this in september when we first started having pain in the market we went from treasury yields of about 1.27 all the way up to about 1.53 so we got that big dip in the s p 500 dip one with a .2 change on the 10-year treasury the pain continued with another 0.1 change in the treasury so we could get a whole 0.3 percent change a whole 3.3 change from from where we started the beginning of the week could put us somewhere in the range of 1.72 to 1.82 which take a look at this if we go to the big sell-off that we had earlier in the year that led to the pain in march april and may we had an explosion of yields from about 1.15 all the way up to about 1.73 now that's a lot larger of a move that's about a point six percent move much more substantial but we were coming off some pretty dang low lows so instead i would probably look at this as a little bit more of a chartist and i would say hey we might see yields easily pop back up to 1.72 not necessarily to a new high of around 1.8 i certainly think sitting around this 1.7 1.6 number is very realistic and that's kind of the peak that we saw in october as well uh and we're almost there right we're at 1.66 so i what i mean by this is i think the market still has some room to price in pain if the 10 years run all the way up to 1.8 1.82 i expect tech will continue to sell off and we could see a nice little by the dip opportunity before the end of the year we'll see what ends up happening because as we know markets are difficult to predict but what do you know about my portfolio well you know that i'm pretty dang long about 15 of my money is not invested in the market well with the exception of now my big short so we'll talk about that in just a moment but uh most of my money is in so about 85 percent of my money is in this market long so that means when tesla's down seven percent it's a painful day when etsy and phase affirm when these companies fall it's a painful day but the value of the portfolio falls a lot and fast so i wanted to find a way to short this market without having to have the massive risk of buying short-term puts and then seeing them quickly you turn on me now don't get me wrong i love the idea of buying short-term puts against something like a rivien or a lucid i think and not financial advice nothing in this video shall be construed as financial advice but i love the idea of shorting rivian darn it i should have shorted it like 10 minutes ago because it was green and it's just started falling but anyway i love the idea of shorting rivian i love the idea of shorting lucid i love it because i think these companies are substantially over valued now shorts are a little expensive like soul puts or i'm sorry purchase puts are a little expensive on rivian a little expensive on lucid right now uh but if the eevee sector ends up coming to a halt having a short position against uh lucid and rivie in a put position against these would be a very good idea and actually what i might do now the more that i think about it i might actually increase my short and i'm probably going to do this i'm probably going to buy some some options against lucid and rivien as well but they're going to be a lot smaller than my big short that's because when you buy like 30 day puts or 25 day puts the value of these puts can move very very quickly you can make a lot of money really fast but you could also lose a lot of money very very quickly now to some degree if the market in ebus rallies my tesla will take me to the moon it's fine like i'll just have a little bit less moon money if the market in evs plummets i'm going to get killed on tesla i think lucid and rivian will fall twice as hard as tesla that's not necessarily the case today but in the long run i i believe that uh and having a short position against them would probably be a good idea i honestly don't know if i would go for december or january at this point i might pay the extra and go for a january put but we'll see just in case you have an end of the year kind of profit-taking cycle but what is my real big short okay you ready for this let me give you a little bit of information first because it's going to help you kind of understand why i'm making this bet and i'm of course going to mention again you should really check out the programs on building your web and then we can have a conversation about this in our in our live streams uh but anyway uh here's here's a stat that you need to know at the start of the fourth quarter hedge funds had 33 exposure to high growth and high valuation companies which are companies that exceed 10 times sales the start of the fourth quarter was october and that was really dip time and that number in my opinion has substantially increased i wouldn't be surprised if a lot of hedge funds have closer to 50 exposure to high growth and high valuation companies remember a lot of hedge funds like to hedge and if hedge funds start hedging more then we'll get a less buying pressure on technology when we have less hedge fund buying pressure on technology technology is more likely to full because as people sell and there are less buyers prices come down but in addition to having less buying pressure on technology because it's no longer the sexy thing right now because everybody's making fun of it i think hedge funds are likely to hedge which means shorting and potentially making similar plays to what i'm making i just want to be earlier than them at doing this now i've already shorted the market once very very profitably and i'm doing it again today and so i'm going to show you a lower risk short that i'm making uh and the reason as well that i think institutions are the ones uh sort of at the center of a lot of the sell-off that we have right here is take a look at this i'm going to pull this up this was a the video clip from yesterday's live stream and take a look at this nvidia falls about an hour before the close and really sells off going into the close right let's fast forward yesterday's live stream look at that it just kind of keeps falling into the clothes and look at that volume that's not retail volume roller coasting these stocks down this is end phase that volume at the close that's institutional volume in my opinion i can't know for sure but that's usually when institutions close and when they hedge towards the end of the day so you get these roller coaster sell-offs but it wasn't just an nvidia or an face it was in neo it was in jp morgan which implies index selling or index hedging apple also index shorting index hedging look at those falls into the close here folks google paypal net these guys were selling off into the close very typical institutional sell-off period so i think it's possible that fear is going to return to these institutions and we're going to have a little bit more pain longer for for a lot of these different companies so what do i want to do to short the market where i'm not going to get rich really quick but i hopefully also won't get killed really quickly right and that's that's important because with a short position again you get puts you get destroyed you could get destroyed very very very quickly so it's high risk well there's a new product that came out i'm not sponsored by them but i am invested in their product and it's called s arc and that stands for short arc short arc is up 14 since they launched a couple weeks ago they use swaps to basically short the underlying securities in arc invest and so the way this works is if arc invest goes up this goes down if arc invest goes down this goes up now unfortunately at the time of this recording arc kind of has been going straight down all day but we're having a little bit of a push up here right now which this would just be so much more beautiful if i were recording this while it was going down but that's okay it doesn't matter so much this is arc k and so as arc k is going up we're going to expect s arc to go down so let's go on over to s arc here it is it's up 4.5 today and there you go it's showing a little bit of a rotation to the downside now i have about one actually do i have five hundred oh sorry i have 100 000 shares of s arc my plan is to stay in this position very very briefly like i don't want to be in this for the long term i don't want to short cafe short the market for the long term this to me is probably a play that i'm interested in making for the next couple weeks and that's specifically because i'm looking for a dip in the market if this market sell-off reverses and stocks start rallying again kind of like how the market responded in a weird way this morning and we get a little bit of a rally again this morning then this isn't going to do too well and i'll probably close my position i expect my downside risk is maybe 10 because it's not like a leveraged it's not like an option if if i see you know trends changing treasury yields falling tech going back up i could easily step out of this position small hedge but the more my technology stocks sell off the more i'm bleeding and i have in my opinion a relatively cheap insurance policy against at least a portion of my portfolio against about 12 percent of the portfolio if uh if if arc and tech continue to sell off this should be a tool for giving me more money in a dip and i think that's cool is that if i can have money not just in cash on the side but some of it in an s arc where it's relatively low risk i'm not going to lose a lot of money in my opinion no guarantees like i'm not a financial advisor i can't tell you this is low risk but what i believe is potentially lower risk certainly compared to options right uh if uh if you know this this ends up if the market ends up crashing uh and and tesla sells off 20 30 percent arc invest sells off 20 or whatever cool i'm gonna have 20 more money to go buy the dip if the market rallies great i'm gonna be making a killian killing on my tech stocks and uh here on my s arc position i'm gonna lose a little bit uh you know 10 15 whatever but i'll probably close that position as soon as i see kind of a u-turn in the market uh i watch the market pretty regularly and of course once i cycle out of this i'll i'll definitely be um as always sending an alert to everybody in the stocks and psychology of money group uh and so really keep it the cool thing is what you really just have to do is watch what our k does because s arc is going to do the opposite we're seeing a little bit of potential by the dipping uh right now but then again we saw that throughout the day and then we ended up go pulling back to lowe's so obviously on the minute candle sticks you're going to have you're going to have some pain you look at the hour candle stick or the day candle stick on arc look at this we've really kind of just started selling off here you it makes you wonder if we're going to get back down to mellows i wouldn't be surprised if we do so maybe another 10 drawdown no guarantees though generally i'm long in this market i don't like to short the market so there you have i the pre-sale for the new course as well alright folks
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