저자: 미상 · 외국인
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팔란티어가 2030년까지 미국 매출 10배 성장을 목표로 하며 직원은 감소시킨다는 Karp 발언을 전제로, 연 25% 성장·마진 하락·매출 대비 30배 밸류에이션을 가정해 시총 약 1.2조 달러, 주가 약 3배(연 25%) 상승을 계산. 다만 밸류에이션 가정이 불확실하다고 언급하며 AI 기업 프리미엄 지속 여부에 달려 있다고 설명.
다듬은 글
So, let's talk about what would happen to Palunteer stock if they're able to reach their goal of 10x revenue 5 years from now by 2030. First, I'm going to play the clip of CNBC talking about what Alex Karp told them before the earnings release and then Alex Karp on the conference call giving it in his words what he thinks is going to happen.
Then I'm going to come back and discuss the impact on the stock. Karp telling me the plan is to grow revenue 10x over the next five years and to do so while decreasing the number of people that are working at Palanteer from 4100 down to 3600. Though they are not planning to reduce that headcount with any kind of layoffs.
That's why these numbers are going up at the top end and at the bottom end because we're coming in with a different kind of credibility and leverage. So our in the near future the the 10x revenue we are going to get in the US uh over the next in my my view next five years but certainly what we forecasted for this year it's really people saying wow so it's basically just a math equation right we're going to walk through this together so today Palunteer is trading at about $400 billion market cap it's a 100 times EV to sales right at about a run rate $4 billion in revenue.
And obviously you can segment the growth differently, but let's just say they're growing over 50% rule of 90, meaning growth and great margins at the same time really in an unheard of way. So the question though for this video is what's going to happen not today, but by 2030. So first of all, let's figure out Alex Karp thinks they're going to grow the US business by 10x.
So that's going to become 40 billion. We're just going to say for simplicity, the entire business is going to grow by this rate. Basically, that's like 60% growth or something, which is crazy, right? So, but the question is not how are they going to get there? We know what the goal is to get from 4 billion to something like 40 billion, but when you're in 2030, what is the growth rate going to be, right?
It's going to be less than that because the larger you get, the harder it is to actually scale. So the growth is going to be super impressive to get there. There's going to be some monster years. One, this is going to be one of those years and going forward as well. But in order to figure out a valuation, we have to know what they're going to be growing at in 2030.
Now, all of this is speculation, but let's say they're still growing at a decent rate. I think 25% is probably a decent um you know baseline here for expectations because if they're able to grow 60% a year or something like that to get to a 10x of their topline then there there probably is still significantly more growth to be had but you can't be you can't be adding 60% every year for perpetuity.
So, let's have a look at just a guess for what are the margins going to be. I think the margins are actually going to be great, but I don't think they're going to be able to maintain a rule of 90 because rule of 40 is like outstanding, right? So, I think, yeah, I'd expect this to drop down a bit. I think it's always going to be great for the company.
Um, I think this is going to drop back down a little bit more to reality. So, let's even say it falls significantly down to, you know, 60, right? The question is, we know we know what the valuation is today. The valuation today is 400 billion, but it's pricing in a lot of future growth, right? There's no other way to explain it.
It just is. And that's a good thing. Means the market's expecting it. But what is it going to be trading for on a just to keep this simple on a revenue basis? I don't think it's going to be anywhere near 100 times because this 100 times revenue figure is only that high because of the market's confidence in the company's ability to grow.
It's not going to be grow and you can have this opinion. This is this is perfectly valid. If you think the company is going to be continuing to grow at 60% or 50% or something really high five years from now, then sure the stock will be 10x higher. the stock will be $2,000 a share in 2030. I think that's really soon to make that judgment, but I think you could even say maybe we can call it a uh a 30 times sales.
So, it's a significant decline, right? It's a significant decline. It's the value investors are paying three times less for every dollar in revenue because a lot of that growth has been subsumed into revenue. So then what happens? So then this becomes uh let's see that's going to be that's going to be a trillion dollar market cap 1.2 trillion.
Right? So that's sort of the goal here. And what does that look like for a stock basis? I think if we it's something like a 3x gain from today's market cap. That would be like 25% a year in the stock price gain. So that's basically just napkin math on what would happen if Palanteer hits their goal of growing 10x.
And again, mainly the US business, mainly US commercial and what happens if the growth declines after that, which I think is a base case. You you can certainly make a bull case for they're going to grow faster than 10x. And I think you can say like that might even be sandbagging from Alex Karp. 40 billion in revenue when you know OpenAI is about to go public for half a trillion and they think they're going to be doing you know 40 billion maybe I forget their exact uh latest numbers but I think they expect to be doing it in 2027 maybe.
So you can certainly make the case that this is undervaluing the potential opportunity for Palanteer. But I think like largely this is how you would evaluate it in terms of you say what are investors going to be willing to pay for this amount of revenue at this amount of growth and these margins. That's the road that's the path to a trillion dollar market cap.
And it could easily be less than that if investors aren't willing to pay as much. But I think it has been category defining this AI wave and trend especially in the public markets. Well, this is also true in the private markets to some extent. So, as long as investors continue to be willing to pay extra for not just software companies, but AI companies because of how transformative they're going to be and what the margins are going to be like just for the category, I think not necessarily a safe assumption because we didn't know Palanteer's multiple was going to increase so much, let alone what it'll be like in 5 years.
But math is pretty defensible when I'm sort of thinking about it. Yeah. Honestly, maybe what I would do even is is decrease, you know, the risk on the valuation and just say they'll continue to be growing. So, you can play around with this and I think you'll still get to some somewhere similar unless you expect them to continuing to be growing at, you know, 50 to 100% per year in which case the valuation is probably multiples of 1 trillion.
So, it might be two trillion, three trillion, but it is going to be very difficult. And and the bottom line of this video is not that you even necessarily have to believe the most bullish bullish assumptions to want to be invested in the company, right? I don't make hype content because I don't want people to be disappointed.
I'm telling you my opinion and my opinion is the assumptions don't have to be ludicrous for there to be a good outcome. Right? It's going to require tremendous execution. I think if something were to h happen to Palunteer's, you know, talent or something and all of their employees got poached, like this would not happen.
Just my way of saying a lot does need to go right, but they don't need to invent new physics for this to occur, right? It's like everything's sort of already in place and it's a matter of execution. It's a matter of time. Um, and we'll we'll see what they're able to do. But I, as I've been saying for many years now, I think the groundwork has been laid for this company to to do really, really well.
And I've been on the record saying I didn't think they were going to be a trillion dollar company in this decade. Not that they wouldn't ever be a trillion dollar company. I sort of always thought that would be possible. But what really changed is not necessarily that I was wrong about the business is that investors were willing to pay much more for AI companies which was hard to see coming is we were willing to pay as individual retail investors were willing to pay oftent times much more for AI companies but that didn't necessarily mean that the entire market was going to have that outcome occur and and that is what has occurred which has sort of pulled forward for the ability for this to become a trillion dollar company.
Now, nothing is promised, but uh that's certainly what it seems like and I always try and think about the risks about what uncertainty, what we don't know, like what are the uncertainties, what are the potential black swan events for this company. And it's like the more I think about it, the more that when you get more momentum, and I actually said this a couple years after they launched AIP a couple years ago, is that they reached escape velocity, is that they were actually able to break containment on a lot of the concerns as they were overpaying talent that, you know, we we're not going to go through all of this again.
and you can watch my other content. But I think the story fundamentally changed not just on a technology basis, not just on a stock price basis, but on like a momentum basis, on product velocity, on the opportunity, and I think in many ways AI transformed the pace of adoption of Palunteer. So that's where I'm going to leave it.
I'd love to hear your thoughts on where you see things going and and whether you agree or disagree. Until next time.
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