Jeremy Siegel: Investors will buy this dip as earnings remain strong

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Siegel은 최근 소폭 실망에도 불구하고 실적과 가이던스가 견조해 하락 시 매수세가 붙을 것이라 봄. 관세는 기업들이 비용을 수치화할 수 있고 협상 시 완화될 수 있어 시장 지지 요인이라 평가. 인플레이션은 3% 수준으로 둔화될 것이며, Fed 인하 기대(연준금리와 10년물 간 역전 해소)가 금리 하락으로 이어질 수 있다고 주장.

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01. Let's ask Wharton School professor of finance Jeremy Seagull. He's also chief economist for Wisdom Tree. Welcome back. It's nice to see you as always. Good to see you, Scott. You still like this market? Yeah, I I still like it. I I I think there were a little some disappointments today. I actually think uh the Bloomberg report that maybe Waller is the top candidate uh rather than War.

02. uh he uh uh is not seen as uh uh dovish for Fed chair and I think that that kind of discouraged the market may a little bit continuing claims boy did take a jump really we have the situation they're not firing but they're not hiring and so uh you know how do you deal with that situation and then of course we've had a couple of tepid uh treasury auctions today the 30-year 10-year wasn't wasn't great yesterday you know and after this big run.

03. I mean, it wouldn't be, you know, surprising to see with with those news items, uh, some sort of a backdown here. Is it the pause that refreshes? Do you think it's one of those dips that's going to be bought? Yeah, I I I think it is. Um, and because the earnings are are really coming in so well and the and the guidance uh is is coming in really well.

04. uh you know given the upcoming tariffs I mean they they're beginning to be able to specify how you know how much the tariffs will cost and uh that that quantifiable amount I think is is is doable for most firms uh to say the least now we we you know we Trump announced new tariffs but he also sort of blew this hole through the tariffs uh you know with saying you know to the chip manufacturers you know start building something here and you know you won't have any tariff of course you showed at the, you know, at the top of the hour what's happening in the chip companies and particularly Apple.

05. I mean, I think that that was a really, you know, a big, you know, positive surprise. I think that continues to show real flexibility by the Trump administration about these tariffs. Uh, and you know, basically, you come to the table, you're you're going to you're you're going to get a good deal. uh those that don't um you know will be put on those tariffs but uh mo most are coming and and and getting deals.

06. Sounds like you would agree with what UBS is suggesting today professor where where they say the fundamentals look to keep the market supported despite the tariff impacts. Our base case remains they say that the US effective tariff rate will settle at around 15% enough to weigh on growth and lift inflation but not enough to derail the US economy or the equity rally.

07. That sounds pretty much it like it melds with your view. Yeah, that that that exact I mean it will slow down inflation now you know most are you know it's going to start showing um up but you know it's going to be in the 3% range and uh I mean I Waller and Bowman I mean others uh you know have urged Pal to say listen we got to see through these tariffs this is a one-time tax increase don't treat it as you know too much demand driving those prices upward um and you know that's I mean obviously Trump wants someone that represents that view.

08. If that view gets more pervasive on the Fed, uh then you know then we should see those rates uh go down because we do have inversion of the curve. You know, I look at the Fed funds versus the 10-year uh you know, in Fed funds at 44, you know, in 10 year at 42 um uh does give us room to move down there. And I think the