저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 과잉 유동성 흡수로 인한 장기 약세장이 시작됐으며, 자산가격 재평가는 2~3년에 걸쳐 진행될 가능성이 크다. 거시 배경: 2008년 금융위기 이후 각국 정부가 약 30~35조 달러의 자금을 시장에 풀었고, 이는 MMT에 기반한 잘못된 정책의 결과다. 이 자금을 회수하려면 자산가격 재평가가 필요하다. 자산가격 재평가 규모: 연준이 3~5조 달러의 가치를 회수한다면 주식시장도 최소 3~5조 달러 재평가가 필요하며, 실적 재기준화로 추가 20~30% 하락 가능성도 언급했다. 기간: 과잉 유동성 제거에는 약 3년이 걸릴 수 있고, 저점은 18개월 이상 뒤에 나올 수 있어 그동안 등락이 심한 횡보·변동 장세가 예상된다. 금리: 연준이 75bp 인상을 여러 차례 더 하고 끝날 것이라는 시장 전망에 동의하지 않으며, 인플레이션이 쉽게 잡히지 않아 연준이 과잉 교정할 것이라고 봤다. 인플레이션 요인: 집세(렌트)는 3개월 시차를 두고 CPI에 반영되어 상승이 예상되며, 유가는 배럴당 105달러 수준이고 러시아의 천연가스 공급 압박으로 유럽 에너지 위기 우려가 있다. 에너지 비용 상승은 쉽게 통제되지 않는다. 암호화폐: 거래소 내부자 거래 문제를 지적했다. 거래소가 주문 흐름을 보고 선매매(front-running)하여 막대한 수익을 얻어왔다고 주장했다. 에너지·중국: 미국이 에너지 독립을 말하면서도 실제 투자는 부족하다고 비판했다. 중국 CATL의 배터리 기술 진전을 언급하며 미국이 중국에 뒤처지고 있다고 봤다. 대중 경제 제재는 역효과를 낸다는 입장이다. 언급 종목: 테슬라(에너지 독립 관련 비판 맥락에서 언급, 방향성 예측 없음) 출연자 전망: 장기적으로 약세 및 변동성 장세를 전망하며, 단기 반등보다 체력 소모전을 예상한다.
다듬은 글
and again we're at the beginning of the beginning okay for all of us that lived through 2000 this was four years of sheer health and a grind now we have 30 trillion dollars that we have to work through the economy a recession we have to overcome a war we need to end and people all of a sudden assume that two or three rate hikes and five or six months of headlines are enough and if the fed is gonna take three to five trillion dollars of value out then we have to re-rate the equity markets by three to five trillion dollars at a minimum and then you have to re-rate and re-baseline for earnings and so that's probably another 20 or 30.
you know what we really did was we gave folks just a ton of money and what did they do they acted rationally they spent it now we have to take it all back and that's that's going to be as easy or as simple as people think chamath paleopity is a sri lankan born canadian and american venture capitalist and the founder and ceo of social capital palliative was an early senior executive at facebook working at the company from 2007 to 2011.
following his departure from facebook pauli hepetia started his fund the social capital partnership in the past few years he's been making waves in the business and investing world with his name being all over the news in this video chamath uncovers what we are in for as the us economy plummets into the worst recession of the last two decades so make sure to watch to the end to find out what we are in for you have to do before you talk about what is happening now i think it's probably useful to go back and you have to really start at the end of the great financial crisis and the reason is there was a bunch of people coming out of the gfc who confused what the us government and some european governments were doing at the time there was the risk of a huge financial contagion and so the u.s stepped in and the federal reserve started to use their balance sheet to buy toxic assets right and the ecb did that and i think japan did that as well anyways a bunch of banks did it i mean a bunch of governments did it and then there was this body of pseudoscientists certificate economists who coined this thing called modern monetary theory which basically said hey you can keep printing money and introducing it into the economy to smooth things out and to actually drive long-term growth and it turns out that a bunch of government officials fell for it and if you fast forward to 2022 so 14 years later you know governments around the world had printed something to the tune of about 30 35 odd trillion dollars of money into the economy that should have never been there please remember to like and subscribe and hit the notification bell to be notified when we bring out a new video one of the things that we have to realize is that all of that money somehow needs to get destroyed in some way shape or form if the true economic equilibrium is meant to be found what is true supply what is true demand in the absence of government sloshing money around trying to prop up things that should not be propped up or buying votes or all the griffs that these folks have engaged in in the last you know decade and a half have to get undone so that's the backdrop so if you think about taking 30 trillion dollars out of the global economy you know you're talking about almost you know i think it's 85 trillion is the world gdp so like you know it's it's it's almost half of an entire year's worth of global gdp it's gonna take three years probably of the slow meticulous you know running off of money you know not reintroducing new money so it seems like we're at the beginning of the beginning of something that's going to be long and drawn out now that's separate from and that's separate from whether we're in a recession or not that's just the bear market that we're in right and so you have to look at asset prices today as a microcosm of a much larger trend that has to be about fake money pushing asset prices up and now taking all that fake money out and finding out what the real price of something is fed raises 75 we're done with this they're gonna raise 75 more i just think that's not how it's probably gonna be it's going to take you know 24 36 months that may mean the bottom doesn't happen for another 18 months so i think it's a we're in for a lot of choppy um market action there are a handful of components that have gotten completely runaway number one the biggest one is rent and so rent works on a three-month lag we're going to reintroduce what the true owner's equivalent rent is into cpi so we can already forecast that cpi going up oil is at 105 bucks a barrel russia is basically trying to break the bank of europe by now messing with their nat gas supplies um the german energy minister yesterday said that if that happens it could be a contagion equivalent to lehman brothers with respect to energy when you play all of these things out what you have is unfortunately rampant runaway costs that really have no mechanism to get back in check in the absence of some real governmental changes our policy on this ukraine russia war you know how we intend to sort of uh work or cooperate or fight with china all of these things have to get solved so in the absence of that prices are going to continue to go up and so what does the fed do how does it throw away what little credibility it has left when there's eight and nine percent inflation prints and saying we think we're done for right now you can't do that so they will over correct because there is just going to be so much pressure for them to act you know what we really did was we gave folks just a ton of money and what did they do they acted rationally they spent it yeah and now we have to take it all back um and that's that's i don't think that's going to be as easy or as simple as people think so you know it stands to reason that if the fed is going to take three to five trillion dollars of value out then we have to re-rate the equity markets by three to five trillion dollars at a minimum and then you have to re-rate and re-baseline for earnings it's the worst kept secret in crypto how much insider trading is going on amongst the organizations that run the exchanges and their side pockets that they use to to manage liquidity i mean this is the it's the biggest thing that's been happening in crypto most of these organizations that that run an exchange right compete for order flow and they're able to just look at that order flow and then they front run the trade and they're on the other side of that so they're always making money and so they were making tens of billions of dollars all these exchanges were we talk on we we bloviate about our desire for energy independence and you know we exclude tesla from you know any sort of major meaningful legislation we trumpet you know these companies that are just completely woefully behind uh in building energy independence um we think about like a gas tax holiday but as like kind of like a you know something that still needs an act of congress to pass even though congress has said they have absolutely no intention of passing it meanwhile we keep losing our footing to china just today catl which is one of the largest battery manufacturers announced a pretty meaningful improvement in their you know 3.0 battery design these guys are now building batteries that can go a thousand kilometers um in both of the major you know um compositions that really matter nmc and lfp and i just look at these things and i'm like wow we cannot actually get capacity funded to build domestic battery capability because we're too busy kind of basically virtue signaling on things that don't matter and in return nothing happens china continues to lap us we uh it's really it's a really bad state of affairs we are we are in a very odd period in terms of government effectiveness for hundreds and hundreds of years and in some cases thousands of years where internally the population of that country views themselves you know in a great way they don't feel like their country is a meaningless nothing country any attempt to economically humiliate such a country tends to have failed in the past and will continue to fail and there tends to be other countries who view it as one of these things where well if them then why not us and then they sort of you know in a backhanded way support everybody so we end up in this odd situation where we are picking fights we cannot win and the consequences for us are economically really damaging consequences for everybody else to stay on the sidelines is like economic prosperity that doesn't make any sense please remember to like and subscribe and hit the notification bell to be notified when we bring out a new video
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