저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 향후 18개월간 미국 소비자에게 어려운 시기가 올 것이며, 주식시장은 연말~내년 초 바닥을 형성한 뒤 기반을 다질 것으로 본다. 경기·물가 전망: 실업률 재상승, 인플레이션 고착, 실질임금 감소, 소비 둔화, 기업 이익 부진을 예상한다. 올해부터 2023년, 2024년 일부까지 힘든 국면이 이어질 것이라고 주장한다. 금리·연준: 미국 CPI가 역사적으로 4.5~5%를 넘었을 때는 기준금리도 그 이상으로 올려 물가를 잡았는데, 현재 목표 금리 2.25~2.5%는 목표치의 절반 수준이라 긴축이 더 필요하다고 본다. 파월이 비둘기파적 발언을 하면 장기 채권금리가 하락하고 대출 비용이 낮아져 나스닥·기술주·바이오·크립토 같은 위험자산이 강하게 오르는데, 이는 사실상 완화 효과라고 지적한다. 연준이 올해 말 긴축을 사실상 마무리하고 2023년 후반 금리 인하 가능성을 시사한 것으로 해석한다. 주식시장: 주식은 채권시장과 6~9개월 뒤 경기를 반영하므로 올해 말~내년 초 바닥을 형성하고 바닥을 다지는 단계로 들어갈 것으로 본다. 다만 20~50% 하락한 종목이 50% 반등해도 여전히 고점 대비 25% 낮다는 점을 강조한다. 크립토·자산시장: 2021년 11월 기준 주식, 크립토, 미술품 시장이 사상 최고치이며, 저금리와 과도한 유동성으로 가격이 왜곡되었다고 본다. 크립토는 유동성 기반의 자산 버블로 규정한다. 인플레이션: 10년물 손익분기 인플레이션이 25년 만의 고점이고 CPI는 30년 만의 고점이며, 물가는 고착적이고 지속적일 것으로 본다. 재정·정책: 약 1조 달러 규모 부양책이 승인되었고 추가로 1.8조 달러 규모 부양책이 논의 중이며, 이것이 인플레이션을 자극한다고 본다. 백악관이 자신의 긴축 주장을 반기지 않을 것이라고 언급한다. 머스크·베이조스 매도: 두 인물이 올해 합산 110억 달러 이상의 보유 주식을 매도했다는 점을 언급하며, 투자자에게 본인 포트폴리오 재검토를 촉구한다. 지정학(러시아·우크라이나): 인도와 중국이 러시아를 지지하지 않을 것이며, 두 나라는 러시아 석유의 최대 구매국이라 제재 효과가 클 수 있다고 본다. 예비군 소집에 따라 러시아 내 청년·어머니들의 반발이 커지고 있어 푸틴에게 리스크가 확대될 수 있다고 주장한다. 서방의 전략은 푸틴이 파국적 실수를 하도록 유도해 실각시키는 것이라 본다. 전쟁의 긴장은 확대될 위험이 있으며 이는 경제에 추가 압박이 된다고 본다.
다듬은 글
I'll give you a bit of bad news and a bit of good news the bad news is I think that it's going to be a really tough sticky time for the U.S consumer probably over the next 18 months and so I tend to think that through the course of this year and through 2023 and possibly even a little bit of 24 it's going to be a grind unemployment will go back up inflation will be sticky real earnings will shrink consumption will ebb and earnings will not be that great is a Sri Lankan born Canadian and American venture capitalist and the founder and CEO of Social Capital was an early senior executive at Facebook working at the company from 2007 to 2011.
following his departure from Facebook Pali hapitia started his Fund in this video chamath talks about the coming recession and the end game for Vladimir Putin in the Ukraine war make sure to watch till the end to find out what we are in for because I really want to make sure that it's it's very clear and on the record what I said almost an entire year ago let me put crypto in the context of the markets and where we are today at the end of the week after you know QT earnings in November of of 2021 we have the stock market at Absolute all-time highs we have crypto at Absolute all-time highs we have the art markets I don't know if you guys saw Phillips and Christie's and Sotheby's this past week at Absolute all-time highs we have inflation at a 30-year High we have 10-year break-evens at a 25-year High we have you know one point somewhat trillion dollars that we just approved last week and we're still horse trading on another three you know 1.8 trillion dollars of stimulus that we're going to put in and I think the the most important thing which is the two most important founders of Our Generation the two smartest people who have really consistently won Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos have collectively sold more than 11 billion dollars of their Holdings this year alone and if you can't take all of that and decide for yourself what's right for you and your family you're doing yourself a disservice if the smartest people in the world are now selling their core Holdings that they told you they would never sell and you are not reconsidering your position on things you're either much smarter than them or you're being really really Reckless please remember to like And subscribe and hit the notification Bell to be notified when we bring out a new video I think that we are starting a bottoming process for the equity markets and I think that by the end of this year or the early part of next year most of that will be done and the reason is that you know the equity markets I think do a reasonable job of one looking at the bond market and then two looking six to nine months into the future and pricing in that future today and so by the end of this year beginning of next year I think that we will have kind of bottomed and we'll start to build a base the thing to remind us though is that you know let's just say a stock goes down 20 50 percent even if it rallies 50 from there it's still 25 off from where yeah people don't understand that and people don't understand that climb back up to the mountain so I would just say just you know um tell people that you know I think that David is right I think that it's gonna uh we're gonna feel this for a while um it's this inflation as I've said for a long time is going to be sticky and persistent access money because because of loose Financial conditions distort what true supply and demand should be got it right and access money can come from the government but in this case access County money went from the government into the hands of individuals who then participated in the public markets and they distorted what it what it all looked like and so there was a lot of purchasing activity that was propped up by what seemed like an endless supply of free money and and so now that that money is getting taken out we don't yet know what the real equilibrium economic growth rate should be because you have to remember we have not seen an era without federally introduced spending without federally introduced forms of quantitative easing since the great financial crisis so we have been propping up our economy for 14 years straight now so we have distorted the prices of bonds and fixed income we've distorted the prices of equities we've Pro we've created an asset bubble in crypto out of nowhere and now we have to do the hard work of figuring out what the real Supply demand is in the economy we've never in the history of America ever had CPI print above four and a half or five percent without inflation being brought down by having fed funds not also be greater then four and a half or five percent so at some point inflation will turn over and we'll print six and seven percent but that's still not below four and a half or five and right now our Target fed funds rate is between 2.25 and 2.5 percent so we could still be only fifty percent of the way there if inflation remains at four to four to five percent and this is what I think Market participants don't want to hear they don't want to hear that there has to be a meaningful form of tightening and politicians don't want to hear that the White House for sure doesn't want me here the problem is that if Powell caters to too much of that feedback he's not going to do what he's supposed to do and why he's put in that job so because Powell was catering to whatever pressure he's been getting and he must be getting some severe pressure from the White House those were really dovish comments but what is the problem when he is dovish well the Practical reality is a couple of things number one is typically the yields of long-dated bonds go down okay that essentially tells everybody else to reprice assets what does that practically do it makes the cost of borrowing roughly cheaper okay it makes the price of equities particularly ones that are far out on the risk Spectrum so specifically let's focus on NASDAQ and crypto right tech stocks biotech stocks and and crypto stocks go up much more aggressively so what does Powell effectively done he is synthetically created a form of easing again right like his job at the Federal Reserve if you think about the money supply as a pipe it's to shrink the pipe to close off demand to get things in equilibrium so even though he's doing this by the language that he's doing he's effectively allowing Market participants to basically guess that the worst is over and now we're going to start to expand the pipe again and so they go to the end state so what he effectively did in one speech is basically put a pin at the end of this year and is telling the markets I'm mostly going to be done and if anything I'm probably going to be cutting in the back half of 23 go on your Merry way I'll just say two things one is that I think it's been made pretty clear that both India and China will not stand beside Russia if they do something like this and I think that that is important because they still are the two biggest purchasers of of Russian oil and so I think that matters a lot because you're talking about a lot of Revenue that would that would go away and then the second is I mentioned this last week and this may sound dumb to some of you but um don't sleep on the Russian mothers well what happened this week was really interesting which is that he calls up all these reservists these reservists are not coming from the major cities of Russia you're starting to see protests you're starting to see young people saying I don't want to do this yeah and who's that really activating it's activating the moms I thought that you were right this whole time which is we're going to build a golden bridge we're going to find a way to egress this guy and I'm now sort of in the David Camp which is I think that the the stated strategy of the Western Alliance is essentially to cause him to make such a categorically catastrophic mistake so as to become a pariah so as to either get overthrown or you know something so I I do think that on balance the risk is now for things to escalate maybe not in quantity and I'll use this word in the wrong way but you know quote unquote like the intensity of of it so um I think David's right it's a lot of pressure to the economy and we've never really kind of like we don't understand well what zero-sum decision making looks like when it comes to stuff like this we're going to build a golden bridge we're going to find a way to egress this guy and I'm now sort of in the David Camp which is I think that the the stated strategy of the Western Alliance is essentially to cause him to make such a categorically catastrophic mistake so as to become a pariah so as to either get overthrown or you know something do you think jamaat is right with his take on the markets and Putin let us know in the comments below
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