저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
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연준 워시 의장의 인플레 억제 발언에도 연준이 실제 금리·대차대조표 조치를 하지 않을 것이라 주장. 금은 하락했으나 매수 기회로 보며, 달러 강세는 기대 착오에 따른 것이라 봄. 일본은 국채 상승·엔화 약세 등 재정·통화 위기 직전이라며 엔 약세와 장기금리 급등 위험을 경고.
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The fact that gold has fallen in price again is just an opportunity for people to buy more of it. The same applies to the strengthening of the dollar. The dollar strengthened somewhat due to expectations of something that did not happen. Even if the Fed raises rates by a quarter point a couple of times, it won't change anything.
It's like spitting into the ocean. The Fed will not do what needs to be done with interest rates and its balance sheet. In fact, if you look at the government balance sheet, we got last week's numbers again. The balance sheet increased by another 11 billion. Warsh is there. He is the chairman of the Fed.
Why did you increase your balance last week? What is he waiting for? If he's going to fight inflation, why not do it now? Gold may be falling, the US dollar may be soaring, and many investors believe the economy is on the right track. But Peter Schiff says the market is making a big mistake. Investors are putting too much faith in the Federal Reserve's assurances that it can control inflation.
Schiff says they are ignoring the deeper problems brewing beneath the surface. He says the U.S. economy is burdened by massive debt, persistent inflation, and a monetary system that won't withstand truly aggressive rate hikes. Schiff believes the Fed is only threatening, but will eventually return to softer policies when faced with economic difficulties.
He believes that this will gradually weaken the dollar and force investors to reinvest in gold and silver. In today's video, we'll break down Schiff's latest warnings, explain why he believes the market is sending the wrong signals, and discuss what his forecast could mean for investors in the coming months and yearews .
So the gold market still doesn't reflect that. In fact, when our markets were closed yesterday, gold—no, not yesterday, gold fell about $50 on Friday. In many ways, this is again based on Warsh's tough talk about fighting inflation and price stability. And as I'm recording this podcast, gold is down another $18 on top of the $50.
So gold is down about $4,135. Silver is down 58 cents. On Friday, it fell by more than a dollar. So it's trading just above 64. I don't believe any of these buzzwords. It's easy to speak harshly. It is difficult to move from words to deeds. This will not happen. He's just trying to gain some authority.
He's the new sheriff in town. He will try to make a lot of noise. Everything will be different, right? I'm going , I'm going to end inflation. I will do what Powell could not do. No, he can't , for the same reason Powell couldn't. Walsh fails because he cannot fight inflation. In fact, he cannot reduce the balance.
It can't raise interest rates high enough for the same reason Japan can't. And that's exactly why they do n't do it. None of these politicians are willing to do what is needed to actually solve the problems they themselves created. The only thing they can do is pretend to want to solve them, but they can't even try without revealing the real seriousness of the situation , which they don't want to admit.
So the fact that gold has fallen in price again is just an opportunity for people to buy more. The strengthening of the dollar is the same. The dollar strengthened somewhat due to expectations that will not come true. And even if the Fed does make a few quarter-percentage rate hikes, it won't change anything.
It's like spitting into the ocean. What the Fed should have done with interest rates and its balance sheet, it won't do. In fact, if you look at the government balance sheet, we got the numbers again last week. The balance increased by another 11 billion. Walsh in office. He is the chairman of the Fed.
Why did he increase his balance last week? What is he waiting for? If he's going to be tough on inflation, why not act decisively now? Again, why has n't he raised the stakes yet? Why didn't he vote to raise the rate at his first meeting? Because he doesn't want to. He just wants to talk about it. Of course, he wants to gain credibility for talking, but he doesn't want to act because he doesn't want to deal with the consequences of his actions.
But the consequences of inaction will be much worse, just as the consequences of Japan's inaction will be worse for Japan. So why are n't they working? For the same reason our politicians and bankers don't act. Because they don't want to solve the problem today. They want to put it off until later and hope someone else will deal with it tomorrow.
Although this other one will have a bigger problem with even more serious consequences. They don't care, because they're politicians. They don't care what's really happening to the country. They only care about what happens while they're behind the wheel, right? They don't care if everything falls apart when someone else takes the reins.
They just want to make sure they don't get blamed for it. But you know what? Everyone who was driving is to blame. All the former Fed chairmen, all the former presidents, the Bank of Japan, and the Japanese prime minister who continued down this path—they are all guilty . Everyone had the opportunity to do something about it.
However, no one did. And unfortunately, academia doesn't hold people accountable. The investment community is not holding anyone accountable because no one wants to ruin the game, because many are getting rich off of it, so they don't want to change anything, even though in the end this train is going downhill.
Peter Schiff says the Bank of Japan is losing the battle with the falling yen. Japanese officials are also active in the foreign exchange market, hinting at even greater support for the yen. Schiff says these measures are temporary and will not solve the real problem. Schiff said that the Bank of Japan has already proven that it cannot control the market forever.
He mentions their previous promise to keep the yield on Japan's 10- year government bonds below 0.5%. This commitment did not stop bond yields from rising to 2.6%, significantly exceeding the central bank's target. According to Schiff, one of the main reasons for the yen's fall is Japan's huge debt.
Japan still has a significant annual budget deficit, and public debt is almost 250% of the country's GDP. He believes these financial problems will continue to pressure the yen, making it more difficult for the Bank of Japan to maintain currency stability. videos. We really appreciate your support. But I'm watching this, and everyone should pay attention to what's happening in Japan.
So, the Japanese yen is starting to really fall. We are at a very important, perhaps a turning point, for this currency. Japanese yen—161 and a half. Now, a rise in the indicator means a fall in the yen. This means that you can buy more yen with a dollar. And level 160 was a kind of key indicator. And we have already passed this level.
The Bank of Japan is intervening or threatening new measures, trying to draw a line in the sand. But remember, they have already drawn a line in the sand on 10-year JGBs. Remember, they said, "We will not allow the rate on 10- year Japanese government bonds to rise above half a percent." This was their initial red line.
Well, it's currently at 2.65. It is much, much higher than the mark they promised not to exceed. And if you remember my podcast, I said there was no way they could defend it, and that the stakes would go much higher. A significant increase in rates is exactly what I predicted would happen. In fact, the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds was almost 2.8, around 2.77.
It is now 2.65. But it will still exceed this maximum. Bond yields in Japan will be under significant upward pressure . As for 30- year Japanese government bonds, they don't have that many. They actually jumped to 4%. Not so long ago, a few weeks ago. We are currently at 3.78, but we will pass the 4% mark.
But think about the severity of the crisis that could hit Japan. And it's not about the strong dollar. It's about the weak yen. The yen is falling relative to everything . Yes, the dollar index is a little over 100, but the Japanese yen is falling against the euro, it's falling against the pound, it's falling, you know, against all these other Southeast Asian currencies, against the Australian dollar, against the Canadian dollar.
So, it's a weak yen. This is not a story about a strong dollar. Although the dollar's slight rise is putting pressure on the Japanese yen, Japan's public debt to GDP ratio is around 250%. That is, it is about twice as much as in the United States. They currently have an annual budget deficit of about 200 billion.
I'm converting this into dollars. Obviously, this is all in yen, right ? I'm just expressing it in dollars. So you have an idea of what that means. So their annual budget deficit is about $200 billion, which is about 4.5% of GDP, which is a large deficit. 4.5% of GDP. Japan's total national debt is 8.3 trillion.
It's not much compared to our 40 trillion, but they are a much smaller country. I mean , geographically it's about the size of California, but their economy is much smaller than ours. The Japanese government collects about 500 billion yen a year in taxes. So if interest rates reach 4%, and they're already about that in the long term , short term rates aren't there yet, right?
You have two-year government bonds at 1.4%, five-year bonds at only 1.9%, but there will be significant pressure . Imagine if interest rates rose to 4%. And this is not something extraordinary. That's about where we are now, right? We are at about 4%. And what happens if Japan reaches 4%? The Japanese government would then spend two- thirds of its tax revenue.
Two thirds. For paying interest on the national debt, two- thirds. If interest rates in Japan reach 6%. You know, they were 6% in the past, many years ago, and in America they were certainly much higher than 6%. But a 6% interest rate would be enough to absorb 100% of Japan's tax revenues just to pay interest on the national debt.
This is an incredible crisis in the making. I think there is a chance we will see pronounced weakness if the yen gives up ground here. This is a big event. This is a crisis. As pressure mounts on Japan's currency and bond markets, Peter Schiff believes the country is on the verge of a risky financial tipping point.
He claims that the Japanese yen has depreciated sharply against the US dollar and has now broken through key levels. Schiff assures that the Bank of Japan's attempts to stop or reverse this deterioration through interventions and policy signals are unlikely to be successful in the long term. Furthermore, Schiff emphasizes that a strong US currency is not the main factor in this difficult situation.
On the contrary, he argues that this is mostly a story about the weak Japanese yen. The yen is falling not only against the dollar, but also against other major currencies such as the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar , British pound, and euro. This massive drop, he believes, indicates that Japan itself is the source of the problem, not just the strength of the global dollar.
He warns that if interest rates continue to rise, Japan may have to spend a significant portion of its tax revenue on interest on its debt. This burden could become so great at higher rates that there would be very little money left for other government spending, such as public services, infrastructure, and healthcare.
According to Schiff, this is how a debt crisis begins gradually, as interest costs overload the system, rather than suddenly. Thank you for watching. If you enjoyed this video, please like, subscribe, and turn on post notifications so you don't miss any updates.
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