저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
장기 금리 사이클상 2020년 8월 10년물 저점(0.5%) 이후 금리 상승 구조가 시작됐고, 연준의 금리 인하에도 장기채 금리가 오히려 상승해 연준이 금리 통제력을 잃었다고 주장. 국가부채 확대와 화폐 증발로 인해 약 5년 내 인플레이션/통화 붕괴 가능성을 언급하며 금을 단기 매수 신호로 제시. 금은 종이화폐와 달리 본질적 가치를 유지한다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Interest rates and commodity prices move in long-term cycles. The peak of interest rates in the world in terms of the long-term cycle was in 1981 , after the inflationary period of the late 60s and 70s, and on September 21, 1981, we reached a peak for the 10-year Treasury bond at 15.84%. After that, we saw a long-term decline in interest rates, in other words, a “bull” market in bonds and stocks, and I would guess that rates should have bottomed out sometime in the early 2000s.
But thanks to the Fed, money printing, and artificially restraining interest rates, we managed to keep them low until August 2020, when 10-year bonds hit a low of 0.5%. Yes, half a percent, and since then we have been in a rising interest rate structure. This means that as rates fell and the national debt rose, it didn't hurt because the government could borrow money at ever lower interest rates.
So while the debt was growing, the burden of interest payments was not increasing; in fact, it was decreasing because the average interest rate on total debt was falling. But everything changed, and suddenly now the interest payments on the national debt are not $300 billion a year, but over a trillion dollars a year, you know?
And with deficits and Trump ...he doesn't care about debt; He has never paid back any debts in his life, and he leads the country that has the largest debt in the world, and if you think about it, it's just horrible. In any case, the debt level is now increasing every year by the amount of the deficit, which means the debt is increasing by about 2–3 trillion per year, and interest payments are increasing because rates are no longer falling.
Now the Fed, the Federal Reserve System, could theoretically lower rates. But as you know, they started lowering rates in October 2024 . But what did the bond market do? He did n't go up. Bond yields have not fallen, but on the contrary, they have increased. This is a very strong signal that the Fed, the Federal Reserve System, has lost control of interest rates.
They control short-term rates. They can set short-term rates at 0%, they can do that. But 30-year Treasury bonds will not respond by rising, but rather will fall, because the market will say: the government no longer has any discipline. And I'll tell you, the last two or three days the price of gold has just skyrocketed, a very rapid increase, a clear signal to buy, not for the long term, but for the short term.
In my opinion, the price of gold reacted in exactly the same way . You know, it's grown because some people are scratching their heads. They see the American government, particularly the Treasury Department. They want the Fed to lend money to Japan to support the yen. In other words, they don't want the Japanese to sell Treasury bonds.
So, when you think about it, they lend money to someone so that someone can buy bonds or hold them. They don't want that. They would rather lend someone money to hold these bonds than admit that they will sell them. And this is a manipulation that cannot end well. Now you will say: of course, Mark, we know all this , but this could take a very long time.
Well, you know, in economic theory, when you start printing money, one of the problems is , can you print just a little bit of it? You can't. You have to either stop this and bring inflation down. And during this process, it's like surgery in a hospital: the economy is falling, it's very painful, but it can be done.
But this could only be done at the very beginning. Now, in my opinion, we started this process of printing money in December 2008 . In my opinion, it is too late to correct this abuse of the monetary system without significant losses. Do you understand? But it is possible to do it. But you know, people will suffer, politicians will leave, the government will change, but it can be done.
But Trump won't do that. He doesn't want the stock market to crash because of his friends and because of him . His wealth is built on asset inflation. He would have gone bankrupt many times already if the system had n't constantly printed money and raised the prices of his assets. So, in my opinion, now it will accelerate, and we are at a stage where it will accelerate so much that it will not last more than 5 years.
I am 100% sure of this. My opinion on this is the same as it has been for the last 40 years: paper money is a construct created, essentially, by central bankers, and they control the quantity of money, and together with the government, they have a vested interest in increasing that quantity. Over time, inevitably, in every society that has existed in the world since the beginning of recorded history, from 5000 BC to the present day, every paper currency eventually lost its value completely.
It turns out that paper money always returned to its intrinsic value, which is zero. Whereas gold, silver, and platinum are still difficult to create artificially. I'm not saying it's impossible, because maybe one day it will be possible, but it's still impossible to produce, and because of their limited quantity and high cost of extraction, they have value due to their rarity and are indestructible.
Suppose you keep a Picasso in your house and the house burns down, then the Picasso becomes worthless. But gold will not melt into nothingness. It will stay there. It will melt. Yes. But it will still remain. Now, if the firefighter is not very honest, he can take it away. Philosophically speaking, all our possessions can be good.
They are perishable. In other words, if you look at your life, you have things that you can use temporarily in eternity, a very short period of time, say 50 or 100 years, they don't understand anything about stocks. Poor people, because I live in, well, not a poor, but a relatively poor country like Thailand.
Ordinary people have no idea about the stock market. They don't know what stocks are. They don't know what bonds are, so when they have money, they buy gold. Gold shops are everywhere, and they buy gold for, say, $20 or $30, I mean small amounts. And if the price goes up, and if there's an economic problem in Asia, we don't have social insurance.
When things go badly, no one will help you; I have to tighten my belt. So these families are forced to sell something. Are they going to sell the car ? And all the neighbors will see that you have problems. Are you going to sell your house and your family has to move, or the motorcycle you ride to work?
No. You are selling gold. That's why when the price rises during a crisis , people often sell some of their gold. I'm not saying rich people do this. Mr. Trump and his colleagues, and so on, and the hedge fund managers in America, all of them, all the hedge fund managers, privately own gold. Maybe not that much, you know?
If you have a fortune of $20 billion, you have maybe $500 million or a billion dollars in gold. But I know people who are called " goldbugs"; They hold 90% of their wealth in mining stocks and physical gold and silver. I know that. I don't belong to this group of people because I believe that in the long run, other investments are probably better than gold.
But, uh, I personally have a large stake in gold, very large, uh , of course, compared to other people. Other people, they say they have gold, but it's just a few coins, not even 3% of their wealth is in gold. I have more, so I, I believe in it. But at the same time, I also realize that other things, of course, become more valuable over time than, say, uh, gold.
Let's say you and I bought the Dow Jones index in 1900 and constantly reinvested.
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