저자: JimRickards&MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
중앙은행의 금 매입은 가격 상승(약 3배)에 따른 비중 증가가 주된 원인이며, 러시아 외환보유고 동결 사례로 미국 재무부 채권 압류 위험이 커져 각국이 금을 선호한다고 주장. 금 가격은 현재 조정 국면이며 연말~내년 초 1온스당 $10,000 목표는 유효하다고 봄. 트럼프 행정부 하 재정적자·통화 확대로 귀금속에 우호적이라 평가. 현 시장은 유동성이 충분하며 달러 강세는 약하다고 언급. 명목 다우는 고점이나 금 기준으로는 크게 하회한다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Gold has surpassed US Treasury bonds, or, excuse me, US dollar assets as a share of global reserves. It's just a fact. But it's important to understand why. This was not the case, again, central banks are net buyers. I want this to be clear. This has been true since 2010. But that doesn't mean they just dumped bonds and bought gold, and that's why gold went up in price.
What happened was this: they had a certain amount of gold. They had a certain amount of Treasury bonds. Treasury bonds can be volatile, but their price doesn't change that much. But gold has more than doubled in price. It has almost tripled in a fairly short period of time. So, they added gold. But even with the same amount of gold, if the price triples, then in dollar terms it becomes a larger percentage of total assets.
So yes, gold has indeed surpassed bonds as a percentage of total reserve assets. But not so much because they bought huge amounts of gold. They bought a little of it. This happened because the price tripled. Here's what happened. It's like any portfolio: when you have a winner like that , it's nice, but you may have to reallocate your assets a bit.
So, yes, gold outperformed bonds, but the reason is because the price tripled, not because they bought a lot more gold. Now, having said that, the question arises: why are they buying this gold? And that's exactly what you pointed out. Do they see something coming? I think it's already here. And the thing is, this brings us back to 2022 and the Russian special military operation in Ukraine.
And here we are in 2026. This war has been going on for more than four years. It won't end for another year, maybe, but it was a pretty brutal fight. Russia is winning. They are going to win . They are in the process of winning. This is very clearly visible. I know that the Ukrainians are sending drones to Moscow, but yes.
Good. A small pity , but not really that big. But what's happening there is that Russia had $300 billion in U.S. Treasury securities in its reserve before the war started. And this is the work of Nabiullina, who heads the central bank of Russia. I always say that she is the only central banker in the world who understands her job.
She's really quite good at it. Um, but if we go back to, say, January 2022 , before the war, Russia's reserves were about $600 billion. Of this amount, $150 billion, or 25%, was in gold—physical gold bars in Moscow. We are not talking about tokens, futures or anything else. They kept this gold in Russia.
Um, but they also had about $300 billion in Treasury bonds, and the rest in euros and other assets. So what to do with $300 billion in Treasury bonds? Well, the last paper Treasury bond was issued in 1979. You know, people are talking about digital crypto, all that stuff . The Treasury bond market has been digitalized using encrypted message traffic since 1979.
So this could be the first cryptocurrency. Um, but when you have that, you're talking about a digital registry. Okay, who controls this registry? Well, now you need a custodian. Ultimate control lies with the U.S. Treasury Department, the Federal Reserve, and the FedWire system. The Federal Reserve acts as a fiscal agent for the Treasury.
So, they control it. But in between there are custodians like Euroclear, Clearstream, DTC and others. Well, the Russians kept about $200 of their $300 billion in custody at Euroclear in Belgium. Um, why there? They trusted the Belgians. They trusted the Americans . Big mistake. So what happened was that the US and Europe together froze these assets.
So, they are still there. Although I say they are still there. They have expired because many of them were short-term. So when the term expires, the Treasury simply gives you the cash. Um, I don't know if they were reinvested in US Treasury securities. Whether it's cash or bonds , these are US dollar assets that are on deposit with Euroclear, but they are frozen.
The US is constantly freezing something. We are really good at this . You know, Syria, Iran, North Korea—whoever we like on a particular day, we can freeze your assets. But theft is different. Confiscating assets, not just freezing them, is a completely different matter. You face all sorts of legal nuances and so on.
Well, Europe and the US tried to seize assets, in effect steal them from the Russians. Um, and the rest of the world was watching . And, by the way, they came up with the most ridiculous schemes . One idea was that Europe would issue bonds, lend the money to Ukraine, and Ukraine would pay it back in reparations after Russia lost the war, and if not, the loan would be secured by Russian assets .
That was the idea. Everything I just said is all true, but none of it is happening. For example, Russia will not lose the war. They will not pay reparations. There's going to be a default on the loan, you know, and one way or another, they're trying to steal those assets. Now, what's the point. Let's say you are Saudi Arabia, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, or any number of other countries in the world, and you have $300 billion, $500 billion, or a trillion dollars in U.S.
Treasury bonds held just like Russia's. And you look at what we are doing to the Russians, what do you say to yourself? You say, "Hey, what if America wakes up one day and doesn't like what I'm doing, or they don't like my foreign policy, etc.—will they steal my Treasury assets?" Well, the answer is probably yes.
I mean, if they do it to the Russians, then if you get blacklisted, maybe they'll do it to you too. And so you start getting insurance, you start buying gold. And that's part of what's driving—not the only thing, but part of what's driving central banks to move to gold. This is inflation. Yes. But it's more about an asset that the United States can't steal, because if you buy physical bullion and put it in your own vaults, don't leave it at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Bank of England .
Put them in their own storage. And this is a physical asset. It is not digital. You ca n't, you can't, you can't break it. You'll have to invade the country if, if you want to go that far. But the point is, it's geopolitically safe. It's not just about inflation and diversification. Yes, these things matter.
But physical bullion is protected from the US stealing your treasury assets. So I would say that the US, which had a reputation as a jurisdiction with the rule of law, has tarnished or ruined its reputation and given other countries a reason to own gold. That's why I always say: if it suits central bankers , it suits me.
What is this? Have we reached the peak, was it a "bubble" or a hyper-leap, and will everything now go into decline, and should we get out while we still can? So, is this just how it all happens? Is this a normal, I would say normal, that is, an expected pullback in commodity prices , and is this a good basis for the next round to a much higher level?
I'm sure the latest is that this is a pullback, and my interim goal for the end of this year or the beginning of next year—$10,000 per ounce—still remains relevant. I believe that today's conditions are much better for gold, silver, and platinum than they were in the 70s. And I would vote for Mr. Trump.
There is no doubt about it. I would never advise anyone to vote for Ms. Kamala Harris and the Democrats in their current state. But I must say that Mr. Trump is a gift from God to the world and to those who own gold, silver, and platinum, because you can be sure that under him there will be a huge budget deficit and massive money printing.
There is no doubt that he has no other choice. I have a company in the financial sector and personal assets, and in my case, liquidity has improved over the last 5 years because previously I was getting zero or half a percent interest rate on my deposits and bank accounts. Now, on all the money I have in the form of liquidity, I get 4%.
You might say that 4% is not much. I agree, because I believe that inflation, the increase in the cost of living, is now probably higher than 4% in the world. But that 4% now gave me cash flow that I didn't have before, and compared to zero rates, 4% is a lot. So I think a lot of people think, "Oh, interest rates have gone up, there's not much liquidity." No, there is enough liquidity in the system .
If there was no liquidity, if there was little money , Bitcoin would not be making new highs. Gold would not set new records. The dollar would be strong. No, but he is weak now . Do you understand? This became very difficult. As? First, during monetary inflation it is difficult to calculate what the correct price is .
We don't know. The Dow Jones in nominal terms is at its peak, but the Dow Jones in euros or in gold and silver is well below its high. We are looking at the year 2000 or 1973 . The technology sector was very overheated in 2000. We had the so-called dot-com bubble. In '73, we had a bubble of quality growth stocks.
We call them the Nifty 50. These were 50 companies like Kodak, Xerox, Polaroid, Sears. Most of them went bankrupt, but they were the favorite stocks back then. However, when they fell, they dragged the entire market with them, except for the bear market of 73-74. The price of gold was adjusted upwards in 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window in August '71.
So the price of gold was in an upward trend, and during the bear market of 73-74, everything fell except for shares of gold mining and mining companies.
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