저자: Beast Finance · 외국인
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I look at myself, of course, I'm someone who has advocated owning precious metals for the last 40 years, and I buy every month some, and I also tell people that they should own some precious metals because if they don't own it, they trust central banks. And look at the characters that sit in these central banks.
Would you trust them? Definitely not. But but I'm also holder of dollars because I have a financial business and I buy and sell securities and occasionally I have a liquidity because of my views and occasionally I have liquidity because I sold a position that we own and so forth. Anyway, the bulk is still nowadays in US dollars.
I have some portfolios which I value in euros and I have some portfolios I value in Swiss francs. And the valuations will fluctuate a lot depending on the assets and it fluctuates frequently in unexpected ways. I as I said, I have a very large exposure into precious metals, but the time may come where I would say I put all in precious metals.
I haven't done it yet, but I have friends who are truly gold bugs. They have 80% of their assets in gold and gold in precious metals. Yes, 80% or they they don't own real estate, they don't own stocks, they own gold shares, but they don't they're not not interested in a company in Asia or anything. They're interested in gold related assets and silver and platinum.
Mhm. [clears throat] You want to know people like that, but the but what I wanted to say is if you go, where do you live? Canada. Canada, okay. Let's say you go to cocktail party of well-to-do people and you ask them, "Oh, you've seen the price of gold and silver has gone up. Do you own any?" And then they will say, "Yes, we own." And the wife will say, "Yes, I have a earring from my grandmother." And so forth.
But people, and Canada is one of the better countries in gold ownership because the its the mining sector is very large within the stock exchange. But typical Canadian doesn't own more than say 3, 4% in gold. Also, fund managers, we can measure the how the fund managers allocate money in tech stocks, in coal, and in minerals.
Mhm. And in gold, silver, platinum, and in health care, and so forth. The exposure to gold gold ETFs as a percentage of all ETFs is tiny. Exposure to energy is tiny. Before the energy market soared recently, I wrote a report. I have the chart. I published a chart in February about the record short position in oil futures.
That are the hedge funds. The people give money to the hedge fund community. They are managing it and they are they are record short in oil. I didn't sell the physical, but I moved some money into miners. Okay. I also sold against some miners. Mhm. Uh [clears throat] but but I didn't sell enough. I mean, I should have sold more.
It's always the same story. You know, you buy too much of things that don't go up. Yeah. And you don't sell enough of things that go down. I don't think that miners are terribly expensive. I say I think they'd go down in price. I don't believe that the gold bull market is finished. I think it will continue.
Now, Now, can it you know, we went over $5,000 per ounce. Can it drop to 4,000 or 3,000? Yes, but it can also go up to 20, 30,000. I think Kevin Walsh is not a money printer. I think he's basically a reasonable man and I've listened to some of his speeches. He has deep knowledge of economics. Unlike Bernanke and Yellen, she had no clue about she's clueless about anything.
But and Powell is a better I mean I've been critical of the Central Bank for the last 40 years whereby I always said Greenspan is a highly intelligent man intellectually. He has his shortcomings, but as an intellect, he's brilliant. He was a horrible forecaster and relatively poor economist. As a economist in the in his profession, he had like no clients left when he closed his firm and became Fed Fed chairman.
But he was suitable as Fed chairman because he suited you have to understand Wall Street is very powerful. The money in America is very powerful. Do you think that Wall Street likes to have declining asset prices? No, their fees come from the size of the assets, not the quality of the assets, the size.
And they will always wish that the Fed prints money. They will you will never find a Wall Street economist that really tells the public that the Fed is making a huge mistake that they should tighten monetary policy and see asset prices drop 30% because then they would become affordable. Why Why is the housing market not doing all that well in terms of sales volume?
Because houses are too expensive. Nobody can afford them except [clears throat] the 1%. My sense is that the dollar is a doomed currency for sure for sure, but the others may not be better. You understand? That's why a lot of young people they buy cryptocurrencies. I have some serious reservations about cryptocurrencies, but I don't want to give a speech on the topic.
My preference is to own precious metals, but I see the necessity of paper money for the purpose of buying and selling goods because you know, you go into a department store, you need a a unit of account to buy something and for that unit of account paper money is suitable, but it would seem to me that paper money is not suitable as a store of value because the purchasing power of money and I can say that I look at the prices I paid in the 50s and 60s when I was growing up and the prices I have to pay now.
Of course, paper money has lost purchasing power. On the other hand, assuming I put all the money on deposit in treasury bills and I rolled it over or I put it all in gold, then the purchasing power was probably better maintained. Do you understand? With the accumulating interest. Yeah. So, the calculations are not so easy.
Mhm. But in general, if you look at history, the value of paper money has always gone down to next to zero, always. Because when problems arise in a social system that knows money, the solution to the problems the optimal solutions would be tight monetary policy and default. But these measures are so painful on society that the rulers or the politicians politicians will not choose them because the the principle concern of a ruler, a king or a lord or an emperor or a democracy is to stay in power, for the party to stay in power.
So they use the method of printing money to overcome the near-term problems and they say to themselves, "Well, we'll solve that issue later." Mhm. But once you embark on money printing, and this I want to observe and really emphasize, once you embark on money printing like Bernanke did in December 2008, you cannot stop it without significant pain.
Mhm. And the significant pain is avoided by printing more. Now, in the theory of economics, in the classical theory, it's shown that you need to print increasing quantity keep the system going. Like as you know, the interest payments on the government debt has gone through the roof. It will continue to go up and soon it could be the entire budget.
Yeah. At that time, what else do you want than print money? I think there is in in every country people would like to have a new leadership. But what does the new leadership bring about? And I want to warn you viewers not to think that the Iranians who live in Hollywood and the US and London and so forth, that they're necessarily representative of the people of Iran.
Now, [clears throat] these are people they left Iran, many of them with the Shah of Iran because their properties were expropriated during the revolution. But you have to see one thing very clearly. And this I mean, for me is difficult to understand. The Shah of Iran was not the ideal leader. But to be fair to him, he wanted to modernize Iran and his modernization programs were obstructed and the resistance came from the clergy, the mullahs.
And they wanted him out. And who then supported the mullahs? The Western world. They got They got the Shah out. Mhm. Yeah. We've seen that in many places. in Iran I mean, I think most people would welcome a different government. Mhm. That I probably agree with you. But a different government doesn't mean that they will embrace the Israelis and say, "Oh, Netanyahu is such a nice man and he liberated us." Do you think that the people will think that way?
It's possible. But we still need a unit of account for trade. But I'm concerned that
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