저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
금은 화폐 구매력 상실에 대한 보험으로 보유 권장, 금은 1970년 $35 대비 대폭 상승. 개인은 매달 조금씩 금 축적하여 자산의 20~40% 보유 권장(본인 약 25%). 주식은 미국 비싸고 신흥국·유럽이 상대적으로 저렴. 백금은 금 대비 저평가로 3배 상승 가능성. 미국 정부는 결국 돈을 찍을 것이며 인플레이션은 자산가격 상승으로 나타나고 부의 불평등이 심화됨. 암호화폐 시가총액 급증도 유동성 증가로 설명.
다듬은 글
I'm a large holder of precious metals and I've been telling people for the last 40 years that they cannot trust central bankers and the government and so forth and that they must have their own gold reserves. I still maintain this view but I'd like to make an observation here. If you look at the gold bull market of the last few years, uh we had a huge move into 201 I think it was L1 and after 2011 we went down to 2015.
In 2015, gold touched for the last time around $1,000 an ounce. Now we're at 3,000 over. My view is that gold is reflecting the loss of purchasing power of money. Uh and if someone askked me well is it expensive or cheap? Well, you know, if I compare the cost of living in 1970 and today, gold has been a very good protector of wells.
I mean, you know, you own an ounce at $35 an ounce in 1970 and now it's worth over $3,000. So it's okay and I would recommend every individual anywhere in the world to gradually every month a little bit accumulate gold and with the intention to have approximately I don't know between 20 and 40% of their money in gold.
I have around maybe 25% but I was just thinking today when I was taking a bus in the in the evening where I shouldn't put everything in gold and silver because because I really think the western government will all print money and the purchasing power of money will go down. Now, I admit that to own stock shares is a way to protect your wealth because the share market is a better protector of your purchasing power than the bond market and cash.
Cash and bonds would be the worst instruments. Except if I look at the world, I notice that US shares are expensive and that some emerging market, Latin America, say Brazil and the Colombians of course and Asia, Hong Kong, China, Indonesia, Thailand are relatively cheap. Also, European markets compared to the US are relatively low.
So you and I, if we decided to put all our wealths in stock, we would have to buy stocks that are reasonably priced and not buy like the NASDAQ in year 2000 in March, which then went down by 83%. Whereas with gold, I think it it may go down if liquidity really becomes tight. But as I said, I doubt that the US can really tighten monetary conditions.
I'm not sure that it will be used by the system by central bankers and by governments but it may be used by individuals. You understand? You and me, we have money and maybe we have a tendency to speculate, but part of us is also to have money as a store of value that it doesn't depreciate cons consistently.
That's it. It's its purchasing power is uh maintained. That is say if you have savings, you want to maintain the purchasing power of your saving. This regarding making money here and making money there. To maintain the purchasing power, individuals are gradually shifting funds from cash that yields say in American dollars still 4% or so on 10-year bonds.
They're shifting it into gold and silver and platinum. At the present time, I think that platinum looks inexpensive relative to gold and silver because it hasn't moved much in the last few years and their times when platinum actually sells at the premium to gold. So today, platinum is around $1,300 and gold is over $3,000.
So I think platinum could could go up three times. Actually, if I were Putin, the South African government, I would squeeze the platinum market. It wouldn't take a lot of money because it's a small market. the US government with its gigantic debt. They can do a few things. In theory, they could increase taxes to pay say the interest on the debt.
But no politician would get elected if he went to the public and said, "Look, you all have to tighten your belts and I'm going to increase taxation." That is not going to fly. Trump has increased taxation. A tariff is a tax on the consumer in America. But he's a great promoter. He tells the people, "Oh, we have to protect our interest in America, the economic interest.
That's why we in living the tariffs." You understand? He doesn't go to the public and says is a tax. No, but it is a tax and that is a possibility. The other possibility is to go to the the people in America and say look we have this tech problem we have to solve it and we can solve it. The problem is in a democracy people like that the government spends money on subsidies.
corporate sector loves subsidy and government contracts then they will never oppose the government because they get money from the government and uh the cutting of social security and retirement benefits would be unacceptable in a democracy. I mean you think the veterans would take a 30% pay cut on their on their pension incomes.
No. The third possibility, and every government has done it throughout history, the recorded history of over 5,000 years, and that is to print money. The Romans did it, Spanish did it, the British did it, and the Americans are going to do it. And especially Trump, he has no respect for people that lend him the money.
I want to tell you what I make of it. Already in the 80s I thought that they were growing exponentially and that it would lead to a collapse. And now 40 years later we're still happily expanding the credit the government debt and that can be done for a very long time because you can print money. The central bank can simply accumulate these bonds or they can make money available to insurance companies and so forth at the banks that they can accumulate these treasury security or they can make it available to foreigners.
So that the foreigners through their current account surpluses accumulate dollar reserves and then they buy stocks and bonds in the US or real estate. So it can go on for a very long time. I mean, you go to Istanbul or 5 years ago to Argentina, inflation was around 100%. In my view, most people in America and in the western world have been in recession for a long time.
Their standards of living are going down, not up. And the problem is that their salaries are going up less than the cost of living. The BLS has shown that they make mistakes in the calculation of any of everything. You know that they have no it's wrong to say they have no clue but the way they calculate things are not relevant.
You see, for in America, I have to point this out. In America, the word inflation refers to a department store or to a grocery shop or to a supermarket where prices go up and then the housewife complains prices are going up and then they say is inflate. But there's an other inflation and that is the inflation of assets.
and say property prices go up, stock prices go up, bond prices go up, collect collectibles go up, cryptocurrencies go up. Just think of it. 5 years ago, maybe the crypto market is $200 billion and now it's more than $4 trillion. That is called liquidity. Liquidity $4 trillion are floating around somewhere.
It would be interesting when cryptos crash if the Fed will intervene and buy them up. And the other thing is they create of course a class of people that are immensely rich immensely. I mean you have today a concentration of wealth such as we had maybe prior to the crash in 29. a huge amount of money in the hands of very few people.
Uh because money printing doesn't flow evenly into the world but if benefits this corner or that corner of the world and these people and not these people. So uh we have since money printing began from the US government. I mean the federal list is a is a branch of the government. We have a huge expansion in Wales in equality.
I'm not complaining about I I couldn't care less whether Bezos has a trillion dollars or half a trillion or $5 trillion. You understand it? It that is not a concern to me. But I'm just saying the system as it is nowadays is actually sucking money from the population from the broad uh group of people say from 80% of the people into the hands of say 0.1% of the people and that then creates not a very healthy society.
I mean we have we could have civil civil problems. I mean a lot of domestic problems in terms of political trend where poor people they lean more to the left socialism, rich people may lean more into the direction of Elen Musk or AFD in Germany and so that may create an unhealthy uh environment. Woman.
Comments 0