저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
마이클 베리의 테슬라 공매도 포지션(약 416 부근) 공개 후, 같은 시기 대규모 테슬라 콜옵션 거래(8/21 $490, 11/20 $600, 합계 약 1,130만 달러 프리미엄)가 포착됨. 출연자들은 옵션 흐름이 방향성 베팅이며 테슬라 인도량·실적 촉매를 노린 것으로 해석하나, 콜 매수자의 의도·헤지 여부는 알 수 없다고 봄. 베리는 과거 예측 실적이 좋지 않았고 헤지펀드 자본을 운용하므로 추종은 경계해야 한다는 입장. IV는 테슬라 기준 낮은 편(47~51)으로 평가.
다듬은 글
Michael Burr reveals a Tesla short position of around 416, and within hours we see someone else who knows they or their books are worth $100 and has $ 1.3 million worth of call options . Well, the stock was only trading around 421. The first trade that hits the account yesterday is a call option dated August 21st for $490.
51 days after market launch, approximately 17% out of play, 6.1 million premium. The second tranche hits November 20, a $600 call option, 142 days after market entry , about 43% out of play, a premium of about $5.2 million. So, far beyond the money, growth bets are targeting two specific catalysts for stocks.
Tesla deliveries are due tomorrow, and we'll be reporting second- quarter earnings later this month. Um, I think an important part of this is volatility, because Tesla is a really unique instrument. I know their IV was only 47 to 51% on these deals, which would sound expensive for most stocks. If you go, for example, to pick stocks in the consumer goods or healthcare sector like PepsiCo or Johnson and Johnson, it's going to be incredibly high, uh , volatility.
But things are actually pretty calm for Tesla, considering those catalysts are just around the corner, including a delivery number tomorrow. So, given that both of these catalysts are within the expiration window for these trades, you have a trader who is clearly expressing the opinion that he needs growth or he wants growth from this catalyst window, and he is willing to pay for it .
Eh, that's enough of a deal to consider. But I think the Michael Burr deal is probably more interesting, gentlemen, because unlike everyone else here, when we talk about this unusual options activity, Michael Burr discloses his stuff through official forms that are filed with government regulators. He publishes his 13F and various, uh, positioning statements, so to speak.
So with him, we can see if he's actually taking a long position in a company like ARM or Tesla when he places these option contracts. Uh, he's not. Michael Burr is just being a bear here. And here you have a well-known bear, a prominent person in the market who has ruined his short selling companies , and is now starting to take a position.
So this is a purely directional bet. Jamal, here's my problem with taking the news about Michael Bure as a signal. What was he fundamentally right about in recent years when he was betting against some of these bubble names? He was expelled from the city. And this is one of the questions that, as a fundamentalist, I think is wrong to phrase.
You have quantitative analysts, you have technical analysts, maybe a fundamentalist, but for a fundamentalist, the market can stay volatile longer than any formula or model you can come up with that says the valuations are wrong, that the price is wrong. So I caution everyone against following someone like Michael Burr in any deal.
He is obviously a brilliant investor. He made a lot of money, a lot more money than any of us here over the years. But the way he structures his capital does not show that he is a retail trader. It operates as a separate hedge fund. So I don't know if there's anything that can be copied. I don't know if there is any information there.
Look at his recent track record of trying to name leaders companies like Tesla or ARM. He hasn't been very good in the last three or four years. This is not true. And I think that's the point of keeping an eye on such people. I mean , first of all, they have deep pockets. They have access to a lot of capital.
So they can occupy many different positions. These are the ones that might become a sensation for some other reason, right? Specifically, names that I think are in the zeitgeist right now. These are hot names, if you will. And so they just get more publicity. But yes, I warn everyone against following them.
I mean, if it fits your thesis, you know, that's a different matter. I mean the fact that he's long Microsoft, like I'm already long Microsoft. Perfectly. Come on. Do you understand what I mean? Well, but I'm not making this deal just because he's long. I do this because I see the value. So, I think that's something to remember.
Yes, of course. I think when it comes to choosing a side, you know, everyone will listen to what they say: bullish, bearish, neutral, etc. But I think it all comes down to strategy. And if your strategy is sound and you have some kind of cost reduction factor, a high probability component, that's going to be better than just, you know, going willy-nilly with short-term long option purchases.
Although his position is long-term, and the one we just looked at with Augustus is still quite long. Eh, but yeah, I think it's always interesting to look at the streams and see what's going on "under the hood." Yes. And you know, if we talk about the ARM side of the deal, the call options that they're placing expire on July 24th.
Their profit is July 27. So when the Tesla buyer is here, he says, “I want catalytic converters within my expiration window. I want delivery. I want Tesla profits. They will help raise the price to the level of my strikes." As for the ARM deal, it's about profit recovery, right? You are betting on the momentum before the start of the profit that will take you to the heights you need to achieve.
The agreement ends before the actual risk of an event occurs. So this is, you know, a very specific indicator on the film. Someone says the price will go up, it will go up soon. Hmm, when you look at Tesla, I think it's pretty calm there. When you look at ARMvall, it's actually quite loud ahead of this window before the start of earnings.
So, if you think ARM is already too far gone and options are too rich, then this implied volatility of 96 is probably where your argument for selling at a premium between these two names is right now. But, uh, when we think about how this moves forward, yeah , you have two catalysts. You have Tesla, which is cutting fundamentals.
You have an ARM with an explosive pulse. But she is taking a stand. Both guys' earnings will come later this month. I try not to copy any traders in the market right now in this way. But I think there's an important point to understand, that Tesla is not an ordinary stock. Yes, it's an IV of 47 to 51.
But those are light, that is, pebbles for a name like Tesla, given how it has traded in recent years. Treat each stock as a separate individual stock. No rules, so to speak, that are spread everywhere, especially in these memes. Yes. And the last thing I would add is that we are highlighting these flows, just to talk about, um, names, talk about flows, talk about the idea behind the deal, but there is also one thing that we are not highlighting because we don't have the information, which is the management of the deal.
We are not sure. We don't know how they manage this deal. Of course, they make long calls. We don't know if they can go out tomorrow and buy , you know, 500 put options that won't necessarily hit the tape because it's not a big deal, but it helps with a little hedging. This helps hedge the deal in a small way.
So we don't know. Yes, we'll see how these things work. We 'll keep that in mind, but, uh, yeah, buying options before taking profits is not something I want to do. Uh, I would rather just plug it into the profit cycle, get that extra external value, and, you know, that external value will stick, but that's something you'll only find out by watching the show.
Um, but thanks, Chris. I appreciate your time. We will check these names as the market approaches the open in about 25 minutes.
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