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classes that brings us to our move of the day the Geo the otherwise known as a gold ETF falling nearly two percent as gold got whacked our next guest as a yellow metal is your best and safest bet in a stalling market he's here to tell us why it's time to go bear hunting with your specific castle yes Peter chef Peter it is good to have you welcome back to the Nasdaq thanks for having me back I forgot how casual you guys are I would hear over my jacket yeah but looking good all right Peter so let's get to a gold you've been bullish gold for a long time what makes it more compelling in this environment well first of all unlike the stock market gold is still up considerably on the year it's down today because the Fed is back to its old tricks I think they're bluffing an April rate hike you know they played that game all last year they waited until December to finally pull the trigger a tiny rate hike and that was a disaster that we were off to the worst stock market start in history so I doubt the Fed wants to repeat that and do it again in April you know the only reason the market rally was because they backtracked and now all of a sudden they're testing the water on backtracking again and I don't think they're gonna like what happens do we need to have stocks go down in order for gold to go higher no in fact a funny thing is gold went down today because people are afraid of the Fed raising rates well what happened the last time the Fed raised rates gold went way up so if anything if the Fed does that again and the stock market tanks goals going to get the safe haven bid but ultimately I don't think the Fed wants to put another pin in this bubble I agree we are in a recession I don't think we're going to recession I think we're in one right now and I don't think the Fed wants to add a bear market to up to a recession I think they're going to keep this bubble going they're going to talk as if they can raise rates because they don't want to admit that this is a bubble but they don't want to let the air out so I think it's a buying gold so for a good portion of this year a lot of these moves that the gold went up and the dollar went up on the same day in Ken that correlation be broken deep the old correlation of dollar goes down gold goes up can the dollar in gold over a long period of time go up together well they could but I don't think that's what's going to happen i think the dollar is going to go down to in fact against most currencies the dollar is down this year the dollar was up today but if you look at the trend i think the transit in dollar has reversed because the dollar gained for years based on the idea that the Fed was going to be raising rates but I know that they can't do that because the minute they raise rates they put us right back into recession and now they got to cut rates they gotta relaunched oue and so ultimately the dollar is going to sell off because it's not just to buy the rumor sell the fact it's by the rumor and then sell because the rumors not true because the Fed can't actually deliver the rain I theater at the market expected and I hear you and the argument gold i think is I think goals probably going hard for different reasons but you've been bashing the Fed forever and the reality is that you said interest rates were gonna go to ten percent because the Fed was financing something that they couldn't do in this economy you you the statements about the economy ultimately get you to a place where first of all fed is as far as I'm concerned the market can remain more irrational I think you must believe it has to have been for the last six years but it's been screaming straight higher longer then someone can stay solvent I'm not saying you but I'm just saying the point is how long do you try to bet against the Fed in an environment where the Fed is proven they can do whatever they want and people that have tried to game the Fed have been wrong well betting against the Fed has in fact been very successful if fed has made a lot of mistakes I mean look at the disaster that happened in a housing market because of the Fed and there were people that made a lot of money betting against the Fed and you don't come out 08 yeah but yeah well the housing bubble inflated over a number of years but also if you bet against the Fed and bought gold look where gold was in 1999-2000 it was under 300 hours and al's the Fed is the one of the main reasons is now above 1,200 so buying gold is a bet against the Fed and that bed is paid off more than stocks look the fed up I don't know that I just don't agree with that first of all stocks went from 650 or 666 interests and went up three and a half times gold went from a peak and is down two thousand years I mean you're in a place here where everything the Fed is done you may not like Fed policy from a a pure economic perspective and it may be something that's a road to ruin and who knows I don't like the fact that we can't normalize interest rates either but the reality is to me that has worked for a total price but what yet but so what it hasn't worked for the overall economy why do you think they can't normalize interest rates why do you think they're still solo after seven years because this is a gigantic bubble and if the Fed tries to raise interest rates we will have a worse financial crisis than the one they caused in 2008 and so you can't say that this is a success it is a complete failure people just don't know it yet because the high hasn't worn off I mean pumping liquidity and markets that were seizing up and actually institutions that were failing right and left this is the job that lit the fire and now you're claiming you should give them credit for putting it out top if they didn't put it up they put it out with gasoline so human back page with the Fed right now the Fed is actually reversing course or night brian chambers course so you're actually you're actually going along with the Fed if you're bearish here in a sense they want to pop this bubble no no well no they just elastic they don't even want to admit that it is a bubble but why do you think on this show when they first started doing this when they launched QE when they brought interest rates down to zero I said it was a monetary roach motel and I said that for a reason because I said once they check us in they can never check us out and that's what they're finding out right now so where's the dollar ganas he thinks it's going higher where do you think I think it's going lower because I don't think the Fed is going to be able to deliver these rate heights I think we're gonna get back to zero maybe even negative I think they're doing qe4 recession now how much worse does get then I think obsession right now because I think this recession we've got any reset but John let him go you never know you're in a recession until afterwards they didn't tell us we were in the Great Recession of 2008 until it was almost over right so I think by the time they revised the numbers i think this recession that we're in now probably began at the end of last year early much worse does it five thinking raised i hope i don't think they're going to eventually the markets going to force higher rates but i think this recession is going to be greater than what we now call the Great Recession so we're gonna have to rename that one because this one is going to be bigger the worst session yeah and I think whoever replaces Barack Obama is going to inherit a worst recession than the one he inherited from bush all right Peter thank you for stopping by fiery discussion now in happy birthday happy birthday trips via Bureau pacific capital all right a lot to unpack here that's on track community done
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