저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
관세 협상 뉴스가 잡음화되어 시장은 이미 적응 중이며, 현금화 대신 보유를 권고. 달러 강세 베팅을 유지하고 미국 경제 회복력과 자본시장 규모를 근거로 제시. 2분기 실적 추정치가 크게 하향 조정되어 상향 서프라이즈 가능성을 강조. 글로벌 증시는 사상 최고치이며, 행정부가 중간선거를 앞두고 관세 전쟁이 경기침체를 낳는 것을 감당하기 어려워 조기 완화될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
It's become more noise than signal. You know, the news changes on a daily basis. And I think the market has figured that out. You know, we had Liberation Day on April 2nd. That was postponed on April 9th until July 9th, and now that's been postponed until August 1st. And the market reacted badly to that news yesterday.
But that that badly. All things considered, and it's not down much today because everybody's talking about this is the art of the deal. This is the way negotiations go. And when Trump is in charge, I will not mince words, folks. A subscription to your dining research is worth its weight in gold, not because of what he tells you to do, but what he tells you not to do, which is to go to cash in market time.
Here's the final paragraph written yesterday. We are going to stick with our country position and bet that the dollar will rebound. I just have to stop it there and talk about contrarian. Yeah. Ed Yardeni, you look at the dollar rebound and do you look for a healthy earnings season? Well, I. I'm not sure I know of anybody who's bullish on the dollar.
I think everybody's not just neutral, but just outright bearish. It's as though the dollar's about to be replaced as a reserve currency by the euro and by the yuan and the yen. And I just don't buy any of that. I think that there's been kind of a reaction to Trump's haranguing of the Fed, particularly Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
I mean, that's clearly weighed on the dollar, as has the trade turmoil. But as we as we've seen in recent months, Trump is is negotiating. There's bluster and bullying going on there. That's the nature of dealmaking, particularly in New York City real estate negotiations, which is where his his background is.
So I think the market's kind of getting used to it. And I think that people are going to realize that there's not that much positive things going on in Europe other than maybe more defense spending. And the Japanese economy doesn't look all that wonderful. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy is resilient. We've got a huge capital market.
So I I'd be bullish on the dollar here and and earnings. I think it's a layup. The estimates for the second quarter have been revised down to such an extent that they would they're only expecting a 3% increase in just like the first quarter. I think we're going to get a big upside surprise. I see you've got your research assistant in the background there.
And coming into the picture, we believe that that gives us confidence. I mean, Bloomberg economics is out with some some research today saying they think, you know, at the end of the day, tariffs are going to probably level out somewhere around 15, 15 and a half percent, up from about 2%, 2.3% today.
That's got to have a negative impact on global economies. How do you how do you price that in? Well, it's interesting. Global stock markets are basically around the world at an all time record high. The MSCI for the world is at an all time record high. It's pretty impressive. And stock investors obviously believe that this tariff war isn't going to last very long.
I don't think it will last very long because the administration has to recognize they do recognize that the midterm elections are coming up. Now, it seems like, well, that's November of next year. But the administration can't afford to have this trade war cause a recession in coming months, because that will obviously hurt them in the midterm elections. And they've got a very thin majority in the House and the Senate.
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