저자: CharlieMunger-제목·설명기준출연자,인터뷰원출처추정 · 외국인
요약 보기
찰리 멍거의 인터뷰를 소개하며 다음 경기침체 가능성과 연준의 대응을 다룬 영상이다. 멍거는 연준(FED)의 존재를 긍정적으로 평가하며, 법정통화 체제에서는 현명한 중앙은행이 필요하다고 봤다. 일본 중앙은행과 비교해 미국 연준이 덜 공격적이었다고 언급했다. 연준은 경기침체를 감수하더라도 통제되지 않는 인플레이션을 막으려 할 것이라는 취지의 발언이 나왔다. 2020~2021년 제로금리 유지가 늦은 대응이었다는 비판도 함께 소개된다. 현재 연준은 금리를 빠르게 올려 인플레이션을 잡으려 하고 있으며, 이는 소비와 기업 투자를 위축시켜 연착륙 또는 경착륙 가능성을 모두 열어둔다고 설명한다. 멍거는 비트코인을 강하게 비판하며 생산성이 없는 자산이라 가치가 없다고 주장했다. 사기와 망상이 결합된 현상이라는 취지다. 영상은 생산자산과 비생산자산(금, 은, 비트코인)을 구분하며, 장기적으로 현금흐름을 내는 생산자산이 더 나은 수익을 낼 가능성이 높다는 버핏식 관점을 설명한다. 출연자 전망으로는 경기침체 가능성이 언급되었으나 구체적 시점·수치 예측은 없다. 대상 자산 중 직접적인 1~3개월 방향 예측은 확인되지 않았다.
다듬은 글
채널 소개와 찰리 멍거 소개
Charlie Munger the enigmatic American billionaire investor businessman former real estate attorney and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway the conglomerate controlled by Warren Buffett rarely gives interviews but when he does it's always fascinating to get his insight into the current state of the economy. Munger stated, "If you thought the last recession was bad, then buckle up, because things are going to get much worse."
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찰리 멍거의 발언이 주목받는 이유
Now let's start. When Charlie Munger speaks, people listen. As the vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and the business partner of renowned investor Warren Buffett, Charlie has a billion-dollar net worth and isn't hesitant to express his thoughts. This, together with the fact that Munger seldom does interviews, makes everything you are going to witness a rare treat. Charlie gave his opinion and insight on a wide range of topics, including the possibility of a future recession, the U.S. Federal Reserve, Tesla, and Bitcoin.
연준에 대한 멍거의 평가
Charlie Munger stated, "I basically like the existence of the Fed." In an interview with Squawk Box on CNBC, he further said, "I think in a world of fiat currencies, we need wise central banks. And if you look at Japan today, you would find that a central bank has made our central bank a little mouse that hardly tries to do anything. So we've learned that central banks can be really important. You can push them to great exercise if you have to and you're in enough trouble. So by and large, I like central bankers, and by and large, I hate Bitcoin promoters."
Quick then asked, "When you say that we look like a mouse compared to Japan's central bank, is that a good thing?" Look what's happened to Japan, Munger responded. "We haven't had to try it, but we get the kind of trouble Japan was in, of course we'll do the same damn thing."
Quick then asked a follow-up question: "Do you worry about the Fed creating a recession by slamming on the brakes too hard?" Munger said, "I think the Fed is willing to have a little recession in order not to have out-of-control inflation."
연준의 최근 행보와 논란
Over the past several years, the Federal Reserve of the United States has garnered a great deal of media and public attention. Unfortunately, this is not good publicity, as many Americans now hold the Fed responsible for the highest inflation rate in 40 years and the weakening economy. For those who don't know, the Fed regulates financial markets, controls the money supply, and sets interest rates.
Early in 2020, after millions of jobs were lost overnight and businesses collapsed, the Federal Reserve took absolutely unprecedented steps. It dropped interest rates to near zero to keep the economy from collapsing. Lowering interest rates made it less expensive for companies and people to borrow money, which they then spent, helping to stimulate the economy. Together with large-scale government stimulus initiatives, this helped sustain economic growth and prevent a collapse that could otherwise have occurred. Charlie acknowledged the need for this course of action during the interview.
The Fed may, however, have failed by taking too long to raise interest rates to more normal levels. Even though the economy was tremendously healthy in 2020 and 2021, the Fed held interest rates at zero. The stock market was in full party mode between 2020 and 2021. The value of stocks was soaring, and the headlines centered on crypto and meme stocks. Furthermore, day trading had regained popularity, and stocks with little sales and no prospect of profitability were selling for outrageous amounts. Due to their lack of involvement, Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger were referred to as outdated.
현재의 인플레이션과 연준의 대응
Right now, Americans' top concern is inflation, which is at its highest level in decades. The Fed is currently making up for lost time by quickly increasing interest rates to curb inflation. Higher interest rates raise the cost of borrowing money, increasing the total cost of large purchases consumers often make with credit, such as houses, cars, furniture, and electronics. For companies, this means acquiring less new equipment and supplies and delaying upgrades. If interest rates are increased, less demand will be placed on the economy, which should ease price inflation.
The effort to limit inflation has won significant disadvantages. The Fed is striking a balance. It wants to ensure that the economy slows down sufficiently to bring inflation to a more normal level, but it also doesn't want to risk sending the economy into a severe recession by hiking interest rates too soon or too dramatically. The Fed has publicly said it would take all necessary measures to control inflation. Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, is comparable to a pilot attempting to land a huge airplane on a small runway during severe storms.
This could have two possible outcomes. The first is the soft landing, when a central bank raises interest rates just enough to prevent an economy from collapsing and suffering severe inflation while also averting a disastrous recession. The other is the hard landing. When the Federal Reserve takes this kind of action, it can cause a severe economic downturn instead of bringing inflation under control. A hard landing would have enduring consequences: people would be unemployed, businesses would shut down, and the value of a household's assets, including its real estate and stock holdings, would decrease. Skyrocketing inflation has put Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in an uncomfortable position, where he either takes drastic action or risks losing credibility.
멍거의 비트코인 비판
In his interview, Charlie Munger also expressed his hatred for Bitcoin, where he was blunt as usual. "It pains me that my own country... I see people that were once regarded as very reputable people helping these things exist and grow there, and so forth. This is a very bad thing. The country did not need a currency that's good for kidnappers and so on. I think they actually mean well, though. You're seeing a lot of delusion. It's partly fraud and partly delusion. That's a bad combination."
생산적 자산과 비생산적 자산
Each year, a farm will produce crops for you, which you may sell and turn into income. You will have the asset and a large sum of money at the end of every year. In this example, farm stocks are another example. When you purchase stock in a company, you're actually buying a small stake in the company's ownership. Ideally, that company will produce the cash flow to which you are entitled as a business owner. The cash flow an asset generates during its lifespan determines its value, whether it be a productive asset or any other type of asset.
Non-productive assets are assets you can only profit from by selling them to someone else, ideally for more money. These include silver and gold. The ounce of gold you purchase will not generate any income for you, and the market value of that asset will determine your fate. The only thing you can hope for is that, as time passes, the value of that item will rise. This is why Warren Buffett believes that, given enough time, productive assets will almost certainly provide greater yields than non-productive ones.
Bitcoin is considered a non-productive asset. Charlie Munger's claim that Bitcoin is worthless garnered a lot of media attention. Bitcoin is worthless, since it doesn't benefit its owner. How do you evaluate an asset that doesn't earn any money? An asset's worth is the amount of money it will make during its lifespan.
마무리
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