저자: 미상 · 외국인
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2023년 경기침체와 은행 위기 가능성을 경고하는 영상. 결론: 2023년은 경제와 은행권에 매우 나쁜 해가 될 것이며, 연준 금리 인상 이후에도 인플레이션이 높게 유지되어 경기 붕괴 위험이 크다. Jamie Dimon(JP모건 CEO) 전망: 연준 기준금리가 약 5%까지 오른 뒤 머무를 것으로 보며, 이는 대체로 시장 기대(터미널 레이트 5.1%)와 부합한다. 그러나 인플레이션이 높게 유지되어 추가 금리 인상(7~9%)이 필요할 수 있다고 본다. 가계 저축 소진 우려: 과거 1년간 높은 물가로 가계가 저축을 인출해 경기가 버텼으나, 약 1.5조 달러 규모의 가계 저축이 내년 중반경 소진될 것으로 예상. 개인저축률은 2005년 이후 최저 수준이다. 경기 전망: 금리 인상이 경기 둔화를 불러올 것이라는 연준 가정과 달리 Dimon은 경제가 급락하지 않는 한 둔화가 없을 것으로 봄. 중도~심각한 침체, 대공황에 버금가는 수준까지 악화 가능성 제기. 지정학 리스크: 우크라이나, 러시아, 대만, 중국 긴장 고조와 신흥국의 강달러·고금리·고유가 부담을 악재로 지목. 유럽에서 1945년 이후 가장 큰 규모의 분쟁이라고 언급. Christopher Whalen 분석(은행 자본 재평가): 전 세계 은행 자본 2.2조 달러는 무형자산(영업권·이연자산) 제외 및 시가 기준 재평가 시 사실상 거의 0에 가깝다고 주장. 미 국채 평가손실까지 반영하면 전 세계 은행이 약 1.3조 달러 적자 상태라는 추정. JP모건은 약 580억 달러 적자로 추정. 은행들이 자산을 시가로 조정할 의무가 없어 손실이 드러나지 않았다고 설명. 버블 비교: 코로나 이후 부동산, 기술주, 암호화폐·NFT, 자동차, 명품시계 등 여러 자산 버블이 형성됐다고 진단. 과거 닷컴버블 이후 주가 하락도 점진적이었음을 들어, 급락은 서서히 올 수 있다고 강조. 대응: 영상은 특정 매매 권유 없이 경계 유지가 최선이라고 결론.
다듬은 글
JPMorgan Shea CEO Diamond warrants of impending banking disaster in 2022 the Biden Administration pushed to alter the definition of a recession a recession is traditionally defined as two consecutive corridors of negative GDP growth and this is what happened in the United States in 2022 the media went along with the Biden Administration and pushed the idea that we are not experiencing a recession now but are rather on the verge of one the truth is that we are currently experiencing both a recession and are at the beginning of a depression Banks and other financial institutions are notorious for going too far and when a slump finally arrives many of them will fail today we'll take a look at the indicators that suggest the next disaster in banking is on the horizon Jamie dimon CEO of the world's largest bank JPMorgan Chase has predicted that 2023 will be a horrible year for the economy and an independent expert has predicted that this turbulence will even bring about the bank's demise hi hey and welcome back to another video of Finance sense where we cover all the latest trends in the financial markets and the economy but before we start make sure to like this video subscribe and click on the notification Bell to stay updated with our videos now let's get to the video proper Jamie dimon CEO of JPMorgan Chase for over two decades offered projections for the upcoming year he began by predicting the federal reserve's monetary policy actions which at first glance don't appear too far off the mark he anticipates that the Federal Reserve board will continue to raise interest rates to around 5 and then keep them there in the hopes of putting a dent in inflation and causing price increases to stop this is referred to as the terminal rate and it plays a significant role in terms of investment so everyone is betting on it and because a federal reserve's current terminal rate projection is 5.1 percent Jamie dimon is almost precisely On Target meanwhile rates are at 4.375 percent so they there isn't much more raising to be done and many Traders take this as a positive sign believing that the era of the fed's aggressive policies is drawing to a close at the economy and stock market will soon begin to rebound and surge once more however there is a big issue with what is about to happen because Jamie dimon doesn't believe this will be sufficient to reduce inflation he thinks inflation will stay high and may even Rise Again despite the fact that interest rates will be at five percent and economic damage this would cost Diamond's leading theory is that individuals have been withdrawing from their savings accounts during the past year due to sky-high inflation and that this is the only reason the economy hasn't collapsed but the 1.5 trillion dollars in household savings will run out in the middle of next year due to deteriorating inflation these future events May derail the economy and bring about a moderate to a severe downturn that has many people on edge in summary consumer savings are declining daily in the U.S the current personal savings rate is the lowest since 2005 just before the onset of the worldwide financial disaster and when people savings run dry that's when things will really start to shift and the economy will collapse Additionally the problem is that the Federal Reserve will anticipate a slowing economy as interest rates are raised whereas Diamond says there will be no slowdown unless the economy suddenly crashes he predicts that the FED will raise interest rates to around 5 percent and wait a few months for their tightening to take effect but that inflation will stay high as consumers just watch their savings accounts gradually deplete forcing the FED to begin a second-rate rise in the cycle climbing up to seven percent eight percent or even nine percent at this moment the consumer will have used up all of their savings from the previous five years which will cause consumer spending to abruptly plummet and drive the economy to implode the situation will get considerably worse with interest rates at their highest levels in 40 years further more the current economic downturn will deepen into a depression that will be second in severity to the Great Depression of the 1930s moreover Diamond anticipates that things will worsen significantly as geopolitical tensions such as those witnessed in Ukraine Russia Taiwan and China escalate and as humanitarian disasters appear to emerge at the very worst possible moment since 1945 we haven't had a conflict of this magnitude in Europe and at the time we vowed never to additionally many Emerging Market Nations which many people tend to overlook will pay a high price for the strong dollar higher rates and higher oil costs the person responsible for the previous 20 years of the world's largest bank's growth and expansion is now publicly fretting about the coming year and forecasting that all will ultimately collapse when someone with a reputation for being an expert in his field says something like that it's not exactly Good News Jamie dimon on the other hand is purposefully leaving something out if there is something he would rather you didn't know it's how this incident would affect his company which is why he's been quiet about it without access to internal information independent analysts are left to their own devices to piece together what's happening one particular analyst has concluded that things aren't looking good for JP Morgan according to Christopher Whalen the CEO of a global consultancy business the estimated 2.2 trillion dollars in capital held by Banks worldwide is really only worth a small portion of that amount it's almost worthless when the genuine values of these assets are considered Christopher disregard's tangible equity which consists of the value of Goodwill and deferred assets and instead concentrates on book equity which reduces the 2.2 trillion dollars of capital to around 1.5 billion dollars from there he examined bonds and assets that now deliver negative returns to investors and found that Banks hadn't changed their book values reducing the 1.5 trillion dollars to a little over 1.2 trillion dollars he then analyzes the assets that have lost market value in recent years consider assets like Tesla shares which have lost 69 of their value throughout 2022.
he utilizes their actual Market valuations rather than the valuations these Banks would prefer them to have now that the 1.2 trillion dollars has been reduced by an additional 1.7 trillion to a negative 500 billion all banks worldwide would be forced into insolvency if they continued to use this simpler and more open method of valuing assets last but not least he factors in the losses these banks have sustained in accordance with current market values on their Holdings of U.S treasury Securities which reduces the figure by an additional 800 billion dollars and puts Banks throughout the globe into a 1.3 trillion dollar deficit furthermore as we are all aware the markets are already lower than they were suggesting that things may perhaps be worse than this expert currently believe leaves however the main issue is that banks are not compelled to adjust their asset valuations to reflect current market prices therefore not a single Bank in the world has acknowledged the two trillion dollar loss nonetheless should these Banks strive to sell their assets instead of getting into problems and holding cash instead consequently this 1.3 trillion dollar Hull would exist categorically at least in terms of its present market value Christopher also examined JP Morgan and he estimates that the bank is 58 billion dollars in the red that might perhaps shed some light on Jaime Diamond's reluctance to discuss how the impending economic catastrophe would affect his company it goes without saying that the situation is not good in fact given what we witnessed during the 2008 Global financial crisis in which institutions like Lehman Brothers and bear Stearns ultimately failed and several others needed government bailouts this scenario May quickly get worse in terms of home prices and mortgage assets at the time there was indeed just one bubble but in the post-covet economy bubbles appeared practically everywhere in two years real estate values increased by an absurd amount moreover even though there was no clear road to profitability the value of tech stocks skyrocketed cryptocurrencies and non-fungible tokens or nfts went from non-existent to worth several billions of dollars in a matter of years at the same time car prices increased alongside unconventional luxuries such as Rolex watches which the world believed were Investments and not simply frivolous luxuries the world's economy went crazy when the money printing presses were switched on and now we're crying in the wind no one can predict what will happen next although crashes often don't occur overnight when we examine past recessions and depressions we are prone to focus on just one specific moment Black Monday or the failure of Lehman Brothers are two examples but in reality there were merely Minor Details in a much larger picture approximately two and a half years after the dot com bubble peaked in the middle of 2000 stocks declined slowly until early 2003 and even though the Great Depression lasted for six years everyone now seems to be hoping that the current covid crisis would only continue for a few weeks before the bull market resumes and stock prices begin to increase there will be ups and downs along the road but things will get worse overall the best thing we can do to safeguard ourselves amid all of this is to maintain vigilance it appears that we have reached the end of this video thank you for watching this far Please Subscribe and give a like if you enjoyed this video and comment your thoughts below this is finance sense helping you keep up with all the latest trends in the financial markets and the economy see you next time
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