저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 현금은 안전해 보이지만 인플레이션과 실질 마이너스 수익률로 가치가 잠식되므로 분산투자와 자산 재배치가 필요하다는 주장. 현금의 위험: 현금은 변동성이 낮아 안전하다고 여겨지지만, 연 8% 수준의 구매력 손실 등 실질 마이너스 수익률로 돈을 잃게 한다고 주장. 정책 배경: 1944년 브레턴우즈 체제와 1945년 미국 중심 질서, 제로금리·통화 발행·양적완화 사이클을 설명하며, 중앙은행이 정부 부채를 화폐화하는 '통화정책 3'가 현재 시장과 경기를 움직이는 후기 사이클이라고 진단. 1930년대 비교: 1933년 금본위 이탈과 증시 바닥 시점을 현재 연준·재무부의 4월 9일 조치와 대비하며, 통화 가치 하락과 재플레이션(reflation)이 자산 가격을 밀어올릴 것이라고 봄. 투자 전략: 60/40 전통 포트폴리오를 넘어 금, 물가연동채 등 이색 자산과 통화 노출을 포함한 광범위한 분산이 필요. 전술적 베팅도 충분히 분산할 것을 권고. 리스크·조건: 제로·저금리 환경에서는 채권 수익 여지가 제한되고, 재플레이션은 금리가 올라도 발생할 수 있다고 봄. 부의 격차와 정치적 갈등 심화로 세제 등 정책 변화가 예상됨. 출연자 전망: 특정 종목에 대한 구체적 가격 목표나 기간은 제시되지 않았고, 재플레이션과 자산 재배치라는 방향성 중심의 장기 견해.
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prepare now for what's coming most people are going to lose everything most of the population is unprepared for what's coming they think their job or the value of their money will be enough to protect them from this impending disaster but cash isn't a long-term solution for survival and most people don't realize how crucial it is to find alternative ways to increase their wealth to support themselves and their families to put it another way cash may not be the best choice for an investment the value of the dollar is being eroded by inflation and certain economic conditions unforeseen political events economic downturns Wars Financial crashes poor monetary policies and other factors that have nothing to do with money affecting its value no matter how old you are or how young you are there is always a possibility that something could go wrong at a moment's notice the key to averting disaster is preparation but do you know how or what to get ready for or hello and welcome to another video of Finance sense where we cover all the latest trends in the financial markets and the economy before we delve into the topic make sure to hit like subscribe and turn on the notification Bell to stay up to date on our videos without further Ado let's head on to the video most individuals believe that cash is secure but contrary to popular belief it is at least safe because it simply lacks a certain level of volatility back in 1944 we developed a new monetary system which is the Bretton Woods monetary system subsequently in 1945 we established a new Global Order primarily resulting in an American World Order and a bull market for stocks in addition we are accustomed to a cycle in which any time there is an economic slowdown the Central Bank May induce debt expansion which increases demand and this occurs across three phases of the cycle typically it starts with interest rates when interest rates are reduced the economy improves but when interest rates are zero as they were during the 1932 debt crisis the economy stagnates then the second kind of monetary policy involves central banks printing money and biofinancial assets to add liquidity as a result of such purchases Bond sellers who receive the cash go out and purchase other Financial assets and the cycle goes on and on however the only two instances that such situation occurred were in 2008 to 2009 and 1929 to 1932.
Meanwhile zero interest rates money Printing and monetization will only get you so far and then there is what we refer to as monetary policy 3 which implies that the money does not reach the population and flow to all necessary places to put it another way it is the coordination of fiscal and monetary policy in which the Central Bank purchases a variety of assets generating in liquidity and having the impact of purchasing and monetizing government debt and this is the late cycle of an expansion that is now driving the markets and economy for instance today's market liquidity is being produced by the Federal Reserve and the government which significantly affects the value of money but what is the value of money where does it go cash will not make a good investment in other words everything depends on the environment if you look at the returns of asset classes and only consider cash isn't it an interesting world when interest rates are zero or negative and then there's a desire to establish a spread wherein the short-term rates are lower compared to long-term rates and high liquidity since the Central Bank creates this Market it requires a storehold of wealth which is evident in all asset classes when we examine the market today also this has significant geopolitical implications because as we go towards a world where the wealth Gap and political Gap are both prevalent it will be essential to understand how the distribution of money and bills will affect Taxation and other policies this closely resembles the 1930s wherein there isn't an instant increase in general inflation it negates deflationary pressures and instead causes gradual currency depreciations all currencies of the early 1930s declined in value in relation to gold and generally we observe the same type of phenomenon occurring today without a general level of inflation it explores other storeholds of wealth and stock focusing on certain types of stock which closely resemble 1933.
in March 1933 Franklin Roosevelt severed the connection with gold printed money and made money accessible at precisely the same time the bottom of the stock market occurred this is identical to what the Federal Reserve and the treasury did on April 9th the result is a reflation that spreads to other assets like stocks and so on and the repercussions of not taking action would be unacceptable when it comes to the wealth Gap and other issues each person business and the government has a certain amount of income spending and balance sheet meanwhile defaults and restructurings occur when revenue is inadequate relative to costs and when the balance sheet is insufficient or Revenue declines to levels below standard this is true for the general population and a number of businesses it has been shown throughout history that when there is a severe economic downturn ineffective monetary policies are developed and at the same time there is a significant wealth disparity political gaps and an increased chance of internal strife therefore Rising internal dispute over how to distribute the wealth Pi is common the dynamic we are currently witnessing will eventually lead to changes in tax laws and other policies and the environment for investing in the future will be considerably different from the one in the past consider it a zero and very low returning asset environment since the Market's liquidity is costing all markets excess returns to decline and become insignificant compared to the the extremely low cash rate so negative real returns are bad for cash the most crucial skill is understanding how to diversify effectively which means going beyond the conventional 60 40 stock Bond mix or even the same countries broadening that diversification to include assets that might seem unusual in your portfolio such as some gold or inflation index bonds and thinking about the currency exposure and security is dissimilar most individuals believe that cash is safe but it's actually the least safe its lack of volatility is just a result of the high cash production and its real return is negative its attacks that cost you money in the form of monetary loss at perhaps eight percent annually as a result you must diversify as much as possible and think about risk differently because of how passive classes are valued diversification may be done without lowering projected returns secondly if you're going to make tactical bets from them those tactical bets should have a high degree of diversification on top of that strategic well-diversified portfolio additionally deviating liquidity is becoming more important than it has ever been a situation shift in unexpected ways take for example the business that at first glance appear to be successful the ability to restructure broaden one's portfolio diversification and placing a widely diverse set of bets while maintaining a prudent demeanor will be essential in the future however despite the fact that we take these traditional asset classes into consideration we fail to assess the value of money as well as what will occur when that value is printed and how to diversify in the same way that they were significant even before 1945 those are the things that need to be taken into consideration the Intriguing part about that is when you consider interest rates at the time let's suppose the bonds have an expected return of zero it is evident that their potential to increase or decrease in value is constrained or that in order to make an impact one must heavily leverage them which is undesirable however it is evident from history that when central banks choose that road they will print money and increase its value and a depression's fundamental problem is essentially a debt liquidity problem therefore reflation will be the option even if interest rates increase as you're doing right now understanding that the nature of diversifying your assets has changed is crucial similarly other assets will help you gain from reflation since reflation will always happen and for this reason especially at times when we are in the midst of a new paradigm you can't observe that all currencies have lost value or even disappeared over time hi we hope you like watching this video and learned something important if you enjoyed it please like subscribe and hit the notification Bell to stay updated on our videos also make sure to leave your thoughts in the comments section down below this is finance sense helping you keep up with all the latest trends in the financial markets and the economy until next time
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