원문 보기
hey what's up guys it's how I hear from fallible and today I'm gonna be diving into a little bit of michael breweries since the internet seems to have a huge love fests about the guy talking about how etf's are gonna crash everyone's searching about what he's up to and i got quite the treat for you because i'm gonna talk about what this guy's actually investing in so he's saying that ETFs are gonna crash but where is his money at and that's we're gonna get into in today's video but first before to do that please hit that subscribe button that hit that thumbs up that helped us a ton on the youtube algo and then leave a comment below let me know what you think about his positions now let's get into it alright so instead of spreading a bunch of thought about passive investing in ETFs and spreading all this doubt about that and it's gonna crash it's gonna be like the big short all over again burries actually been putting his money behind a few activist plays and none other than the residents value experts at makarov SAR newest guy in the team brandon he's been writing about this in his awesome value hive letter which by the way if you have not seen that go to mecca ops comm and click on value hive and sign up for that because completely free and he's been absolutely crushing it lately with the content so let's get over that now here's the value hive that brandon put out a few weeks ago and the investor spotlight for that edition actually went out to Michael burry and so essentially what Brandon's been telling us is that he has been doing to activist plays and he's going in on gamestop and tailored brands and so these stocks are both sitting at all-time lows both companies have high cash balances and many investors think that this is a value trap so what he's trying to do is he's kind of swoop in and have these companies actually buy back their stock and so what his beef is is he's didn't really thrilled with how tailored our DEA's been allocating their capital over the last you know 10 years or so and so he said you know guys just do a buyback and reward the shareholders that way because you guys haven't been allocating capital correctly within the company so why don't you just give it to the shareholders directly and just so you guys don't know what TL Rd is I'm going to go into a little background then that's a tailored brands and really you guys probably know about them through Men's Wearhouse or Joseph a bank and so Men's Wearhouse is this huge suit company you know you go in it's based like a suit superstore for men and they have all these dress clothes for males and that's what tailored brands is if we go over to their chart here on you you can see that the things trading at 4:54 just got an absolutely freaking crush from you know basically mid 2018 all the way down to here and so burries trying to go in and do something in trying to buy it on the cheap and then convince management to execute a stock buyback which should make the stock go up so in case you don't really know how a buyback works I'm gonna go to an article here and go through with you guys so a buyback is also known as a share repurchase and it's just when a company buys its own outstanding shares to reduce the number of shares available on the open markets and they do it for a number of reasons they want to reduce the supply or prevent other shares for a controlling stake but generally what it does is it rewards the investors in the company and so what they do is they usually just go into the open market extended period of time and they have outlined a share repurchase program they slowly buy and since all of that buying pressures in the market the stock price also goes up now another key thing to understand about this is because they're buying back stock they're taking supply out of the market which means that if you do own stock still then the earnings per share goes up on your share because there's just less shares around in the company so they do a few things is a reduced number shares about standing it inflates earnings per share and often the value of the stock and so it demonstrates investor the businesses sufficient cash set aside for emergencies and a low probability of economic troubles or in this case which I think what burries getting at is its representative the fact that hey they don't really know what to do with their business plan right now but they do have cash so let's just go ahead and reward it to the shareholders and so this these letters that brandon linked out in value hive this is what he's been saying here and you can read the exact to go to the value hive newsletter you can see it the exact letter that he sent out to the board and you can read through it and essentially you know he's saying this in a semi complex way but he's saying hey guys do a 50 million dollar share buyback and you know reward the shareholders that way you guys haven't really been doing well lately because you're the stocks that quarter-century lows and management you know you don't really know what you're doing so why don't you just give that cash back to investors so that's Barry's number one activist play now his next one is it virtually the same play if we go back to the value hive article and Brandon says it looks like a duck so he also seeks a more aggressive Buy back from GME gamestop to the tune of 238 million and so if Berg does get his way and the board accepts his proposal and 80% of Jamie's outstanding stock would be retired and management's are ready said they purchased octopus 6 or sarrish so current prices of 4 still appear cheap so if we go let's look at GME real quick you know burries been loading up down here and the threes and the fours and he's you know saying hey why don't we buy this stock back up to 6 you guys have been doing horrible lately the business is essentially failing it's gone from 60 down to 4 and you know this is a penny stock now but what's interesting is if burry buys at 4 or let's say he has an average cost of 4 and that goes up to 6 that's a 50% gain that could be very very fast you can see why Barry's doing this and it can be very very lucrative for him and his fund and then again in that value hive article if you go back it links out to the same letter same type of letter that burries sent out to gamestop for a buyback of 238 million and you guys can go through and read it it's just the very nitty-gritty the specifics his exact letter to the board he's just essentially saying hey we own a bunch of shares we want you guys to buy back with cash on hand because you guys haven't really been doing that well and that is a way to reward shareholders and increased shareholder value and that's essentially what this business wire press release said now another thing i want to point out is the following week brandon put out the next edition of value hive and he actually found that burry increased his position in TL rd and that means he's really doubling down the strategy and he thinks that there are going to buy back the stock and so if we go to the next value hive edition again if you guys want this just go to my crops comm click on value hive up here at the top you'll be able to get this directly to your inbox he filed a 13 deed which means that he's taking an extremely large percentage for an individual investor in this company and so he's putting his money where his mouth is on this one and increased increasing his position size and really thinks that he's gonna do that so that's what burry is doing right now guys in the market he is going in as an activist he's buying these companies that have been doing horrible and then telling the boards to say hey you guys have all this cash on hand your businesses are failing you should use it to buy back the stock instead and one thing I noticed is that if you think about these two businesses you know they're both old relics that are probably going to be out of business they probably won't be around that much longer because think about it Men's Wearhouse right they're selling suits I can't remember the last time I saw someone wear a suit around Austin you know even the lawyers here they're wearing cowboy you know cowboy boots and jeans and cowboy hats and I wear a white t-shirt every day to work you know that's just that part of the culture is kind of gone and even I bankers in New York and stuff they've been getting more casual dress codes so it makes sense to me why Men's Wearhouse has been a family business and I think what Barry is trying to do here is take advantage of this little paradigm shift in the fashion industry and get in on the cheap have them do a repurchase then sell it I don't think he's gonna be in this company for the long haul and the same thing is true for a Gamestop I mean think about it where we are with video games around right everyone's on fortnight and pub G and all these streaming games no one's buying councils and and buying you know trading in their old video games for new ones like we all used to do in the late 90s and early 2000s I remember now I was a kid I was super excited to go to Game Stop because I could you know trade in my games and then I get enough money to buy another game but that's just really not happening anymore right like when's the last time we've heard anyone doing that and that's also reflected in GameStop's stock price the things absolutely plummeted so I think birdie sees that both these industries are kind of dying you know no business last forever guys I mean that's that's just a reality of economics and so I think he's seen that these guys these dinosaurs at the end of their cycle but they do have a lot of cash on hand right now and he's encouraging management to take that cash and instead of trying to invest and trying to turn the business around and create this new strategy you know just reward shareholders now and perhaps think about wining the company down you know not you don't have to run a company until it goes bankrupt right so anyway guys I hope that was informative for you guys and you learned a little bit about what Michael Birds actually doing he's not just spreaded a bunch of fear uncertainty and doubt about the passive ETF bomb oh that's what gets the headlines he's actually with some really interesting investment strategies and if you want to keep following him and tracking them definitely want a macro ops and click on that value hide thing it's signup I've really been liking what brands been putting out and I think you guys will too so you like this video give me that thumbs up hit that sub button leave a comment below what do you guys think about this Michael burry play you have any questions about this strategy let me know guys and thanks for listening I'll see you next video
Comments 0