저자: Ryan · 외국인
요약 보기
AMD는 2015년 저점 이후 가장 강한 상승을 보였으나, 엘리엇 파동 해석이 두 갈래로 나뉘어 확률적으로 판단해야 한다는 분석. 시나리오 1(약세): 2015년 이후 5파 상승이 2018년 고점에서 완성됐고 현재는 그 전체를 되돌리는 더 큰 조정(3파 하락) 중일 수 있어, 추가 약세 국면을 한 번 더 거칠 가능성이 있다고 봄. 시나리오 2(강세): 2015년 저점이 진짜 바닥이고 현재는 3파 상승의 시작일 수 있어, 큰 폭의 추가 상승이 가능하다고 봄. 판단 기준: 2018년 10월 저점 이후 상승이 19.50달러 위를 유지하며 5파 상승 구조를 만드는지 여부. 19.50 하회 시 회복이 3파 조정으로 격하되어 약세 시나리오가 유력해지고, 19.50 위를 지키면 강세 3파 돌파 가능성이 커짐. 전략: 19.50 손절 기준의 저위험 매매 권고. 19.50을 깨면 AMD 보유 불가, 위를 지키면 좋은 매수 기회로 봄. 출연자는 과거 가격 움직임과 구조를 설명하는 데 집중했으며, 명확한 단기 목표가는 제시하지 않음.
다듬은 글
Hello everyone. I'm Ryan from trendard.com. I hope you're having a good day . I'm going to make another video for you in our popular stocks series. We're going to analyze AMD, or Advanced Micro Devices, to determine where it stands in its trend and whether it's a good buying opportunity. If you've been following these videos for a while, you know that what we do is apply Elliott Wave Theory to different stocks— popular stocks that are generating the biggest headlines in the market right now— to determine if they are good buying opportunities and if they are movements that will continue and are worth investing in and participating in.
Anyone who's used Elliott wave theory for any length of time understands that this stuff works, man. It's just a matter of determining where we are in the Elliott wave pattern, letting that guide us, and entering high probability, low risk trades. So I'm going to tell you a little secret, and that's going to dictate how we'll do this video today.
It's not always black and white to know exactly where we are in an Elliott wave pattern. Anyone who trades in the stock market knows it's a game of probabilities. You're just trying to position yourself in the most probable scenario with the lowest risk and letting the movement take you where it needs to go.
It will make more sense as we go along, but I want you to understand that it's always a game of probabilities. You're just trying to figure out where the most likely scenario exists. And that's part of the game plan for today. So let's take a deep dive into AMD. I will show you what I mean by determining where the high-probability scenario exists, and we will start from there.
Let's dive into AMD's graphics and see what's going on. Here we go. Alright, friends. Here's the long-term chart for AMD, Advanced Micro Devices, since its inception in 1982. And you can see for yourselves, it's a huge back-and-forth mess. There really haven't been any major long-term sustainable movements during the course of his lifetime.
It had a fairly large movement from the low of 2002 to the high of 2006 and then it totally collapsed. He returned everything. It's been fluctuating, but from the 2015 low to the present, it's in its strongest and most sustainable movement since '83. I mean, we're talking about 35 years that it took to find this kind of traction.
And that's why we want to analyze it closely. You can see up here that it has risen almost 11% today. Therefore, that's why we analyzed it closely to understand what this is. Is this just the latest swing? Will it go down again? Or is it perhaps the beginning of a much more sustainable upward movement ?
And when it goes from whatever it was, one dollar to 35 dollars, that's a pretty good move over the course of two years, needless to say . So, if it's a good buying opportunity, we certainly want to participate. So, let's take a closer look. This is what has happened since the 2015 low, and let's see if we can decipher what is going on .
So, in the introduction to this video, I talk about probabilities, and I'll show you what I mean by that. Based on what we are seeing here in this movement, within this movement. So, here's a look at that movement from the 2015 low. I can find two good ways to apply an Elliott wave pattern to what has happened since the 2015 low.
This shows one of them. It shows a five-wave advance. You can see a first wave that's a bit uneven and ugly here. A second wave pullback, a third wave advance, a massive move towards the 2017 high. It moved sideways for a year and then in 2018 it went from 10 to 34. It has been a true star and then found a high here.
He obviously retreated from there. So this is a possibility. It is possible that this entire five-wave advance has been completed. A much bigger setback is underway. If this is the case, it means that this pullback that is underway from the 2018 peak is correcting the entire five-wave advance that has essentially lasted three years.
It feels like almost exactly three years here. So, if that's the case, this setback probably isn't over yet. It will probably continue. It probably won't last just a couple of months. We will probably see at least one more bearish phase before AMD becomes a good buying opportunity. That's one possibility, but it's not the only one.
Another way you could consider labeling it is by forgetting about this nasty mess that happened in early 2015 and saying that maybe this is probably the true low of the swing that occurred and took off from there. So in this scenario, you have the first wave of Elliot's five-wave advance, a second-wave retracement, and now we're right at the beginning of a much larger third-wave advance.
It's going to keep going up much more. Obviously, if this is what's happening, you'll want to be involved with AMD. So, those are the considerations. The question is, how do we determine which is the case? How do we determine where the probabilities lie between these two existing scenarios? And that's what we're going to do here.
So let's keep getting closer. We'll take a closer look at this development in 2018 to see what we can find out. Here's a look at that progress. This part is very clear. There's no other way to look at it. What happened is that we had a good five-wave advance from the April low. It ended in September.
This is, once again, a five-wave movement. Since then, it has regressed. The movement generally looks like a three-wave retracement here. All good. It retreated a little more than we would have liked to see, but it didn't stay below what, and I'll explain here, is the bottom of this yellow support area, which is a 61.8% retracement.
Normally, we don't like to see a stock fall much further than that. But, again, it was a quick move. He recovered. It seems that it finally found support here. So we don't use that as a reason to think it can't be directly bullish from here. What we know for sure is that a five-wave advance was completed in recent months up to the September peak, and a larger pullback occurred from there.
So, this is what we know. We know that if AMD is on a major five-wave advance from the 2018 low, it needs to find a low essentially where it is now. It cannot go any lower than it has gone so far. So it needs to continue straight up from here. What you see is a fairly constructive advance from the October low.
Again, he's having a very positive day today. If this is the start of a much bigger advance, AMD needs to head straight up from here. If at any point it reverses, goes back down, and turns this into a three-wave movement, that tells us that it is probably not a bullish outlook. This means it will probably be more like this, where you have a completed five-wave advance and you'll see a larger pullback before the uptrend finally resumes.
So that's what's at stake here. What really interests us is what has been happening since the October low. So let's take a closer look . Let's see what the odds are of this going up directly from here. If we zoom in on the image, we can see that there is potential for it to be the start of a five-wave advance.
And again, it should be the start of a five- wave advance if a significant low has been reached . If it can continue straight up from here and stay above 19.50, that's the really important level to watch. If it can stay above 19.50 at all times, there is potential for AMD to turn this into a major third wave breakthrough that goes significantly higher from here.
However, if AMD reverses downwards at any point from this pattern since the October low and falls below 19.50, it will turn this recovery into a three- wave move. What do we know about three-wave motion? We know that three-wave movements are counter-trend and, therefore, could not be the start of a larger bullish pattern.
That's how we do it. We observe things. Let's see what the probabilities are. Is this a five-wave advance or the beginning of a five-wave advance? Or is it a three- wave advance approaching a peak? The key lies in what he does next. Obviously, if it's the start of a five-wave advance, it will continue upward.
Again, if it falls below 19.50 at any point and turns this recovery into a three-wave move, that has a cascading effect indicating that it has likely completed a massive five-wave advance from the 2015 high, because we are seeing a larger pullback from the 2018 high, indicating that a much more significant peak has been reached.
However, if it can continue to build from this and stay above 19.50, it will look exceptionally bullish. It will seem that we are beginning the start of a third wave advance. So if you're trading with AMD, for me, the key level is obvious. It's 19.50. You can own it with a stop at 19.50. If it touches 19.50, you can't own AMD.
This means that a much greater setback is taking place. But if it can stay above that level, then there is potential for this to be the start of a much bigger breakthrough. And it looks like a great buying opportunity under that scenario. So I hope that makes sense. I know it's a little different from what we've done in the past.
Normally, we just show them a high-probability scenario and tell them, hey, this is a good buying opportunity at this level. This is a different scenario. I want to show you how we do it behind the scenes. We analyze all the logical possibilities and try to determine what is most likely to happen. And as long as you do it with low risk, you'll always be on the right side of things.
So I hope this is helpful. Well, hello everyone , have a great day. Visit us at trendlister.com. We apply this Elliott wave theory to everything we do, in every corner of the market. We find the best buying opportunities. We help them enter them with low risk. And that's how you win in this game. So , have a great day. We'll talk soon.
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