저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라 멕시코 기가팩토리 발표 임박을 전제로 성장률 유지와 밸류에이션 상승을 주장. PEG 비율 기준 테슬라 저평가 주장, 2025년 420만대·2030년 2천만대 목표 언급. 멕시코 인건비·USMCA 관세 이점, 화물밴·승합차 신규 사업 가능성 제시. 2022년 12월 영상 기준이므로 이후 예측 검증 필요.
다듬은 글
this video we're going to talk about a new Tesla gigafactory what it could entail and we're going to start by reminding you about how phenomenal Tesla's valuation is today it's potential share price in the future and what we need to be able to see the share price actually grow that way in the future let's get started first the very last video that I did on Tesla I talked about how we want to see about 4.2 million Vehicles produced at Tesla in 2025.
that would be all gigafactories at full capacity Shanghai Fremont Berlin and Austin the problem is if you're at full capacity at all factories there's something very very dangerous that could happen to the valuation of Tesla its growth could stop when a company stops growing its PEG ratio it's future valuation plummets don't worry so much about what that means in the future but think about this what would you pay more money for right this is a very simple example what would you pay more money for would you pay more money for Proctor and Gamble which let's say has one dollar of earnings per share or would you rather pay more money for Tesla at one dollar per share well you can't really answer that because you don't have how much they're growing at right okay well let's say that Procter Gamble is growing revenues at four percent per year not revenues this would be earnings per share uh in that case earnings per share next year would be one dollar and four cents right so you have to give some valuation to this growth that Proctor and Gamble has now what if I told you that Tesla was actually growing at zero percent because they filled up their factories and they're just every single year doing 4.2 million Vehicles that's it no growth well if the earnings per share aren't going to grow then the valuation that you can give to Tesla would actually be lower than the valuation that you can give to Procter and Gamble so now let's say Procter Gamble is selling for 10 times earnings per share well then this would be a ten dollar stock and their growth is four percent if you divide these two you'd get something called a PEG ratio of 2.5 so it's selling for a PEG ratio of 2.5 keep this number in mind and I'm just making up these numbers to make a simple point because it's really important to understand this so you can understand why this Tesla announcement coming up is so critical okay well if Tesla's growing at zero percent then its multiple would be infinite right it's PEG ratio multiple would be infinite but we know Tesla's not growing at zero percent let's say that Tesla is growing at 10 percent per year so their EPS is growing at 10 percent and this company is now selling for 10 times earnings well in this case the company would be selling for ten dollars and its PEG ratio would actually be one and if this is all the information that you had for the two companies which company would you prefer to invest in a company where you have to pay one dollar for every one percent of growth hence 1pe or would you rather pay two dollars and fifty percent or two dollars and fifty cents for every one percent of growth of the company well obviously this one here is cheaper and the reason I make this example is because a lot of folks in my last video when we talk about the future evaluation of Tesla they don't seem to understand how important growth rates are for companies and what I'd like to do is just give you an example of the following stocks so you could see what you generally see from a price to earnings growth multiple so what you're going to do is you're going to look right here at this column that I am Bolding right now and at the top you can see Tesla selling for about 0.59 whereas apple is selling for 2.7 times you've got Autodesk selling for nearly two times trade desk at nearly 1.76 times in video One Embraer is only 0.41 cloudflare selling for six times Etsy selling for 2.36 times obviously the lower the better and when we look at lower the better we get companies like solar Edge AMD Nvidia Embraer and Tesla that are selling really really low for the amount of growth these companies have and this is so critically important for when it comes to valuing a company so what's Tesla's valuation actually well generally people expect that Tesla will grow at about 50 percent per year that is their earnings per share will grow at 50 percent so if their p e ratio is 50 it actually means you're just paying one dollar per percent growth right that's actually not that bad the ratio is one not bad but when people see this they get very confused by this 50 number and they say oh but Kevin Tesla is overvalued because the S P 500 is only selling for a multiple of 18 times sure maybe they're selling for a multiple of 18 times but the average earnings of the S P 500 are expected to only grow four to five percent even at five percent you're paying a PEG ratio of somewhere around 3.6 for the S P 500 that's because some companies are expecting to have negative earnings next year right so you're actually paying a much richer valuation for the S P 500 than you are for Tesla but people don't care about that they just want to look at that number and say well well 18 is smaller than 50 so it must be a better deal it's stupid but not only is it stupid it's really important to make conservative estimates when you're doing fundamental analysis and so what I'd like to do is I like to assume that Tesla is going to grow earnings at about 35 percent per year once we get to 2025 and you need to have continued hope that that growth rate is going to continue to stay at 35 percent right now it's between 45 and 50 percent so I'm obviously building in some kind of slowdown because once you know the law of large numbers once you start producing millions of vehicles it's harder to grow and grow and grow by 50 all the time well if you're selling for 30 or if you're you're growing at 35 and you have a PEG ratio of 1.5 you'd have a future p e ratio of about 52.5 really reasonable PEG ratio of 1.5 growth at 35 and so when we look at my chart over here when we look at the future evaluation of Tesla and we use 50.
well of course this company should be selling for nearly 600 per share in the future which what's remarkable about that is right now it's selling for about 150 per share that represents about a 50 57 stock price growth year over year over year until we get to 2025. it's a really really good rate of return if that could be realized in my opinion the only way to sort of longer term analysis doesn't get realized is if you end up having growth falter at Tesla and this is why in my last video I was a little bit concerned because I said look we need more gigafactory three announcements in fact I said in March of this year Tesla should copy and paste their Giga Berlin and their Giga Texas model as soon as possible once of course it's feasible to do so but once you ramp up Austin and Berlin and you've got that project figured out you want to copy and paste those models to keep the growth going and guess what Tesla is potentially about to announce with in the next one to two weeks a plant in Mexico in northeastern Mexico the next gigafactory could be announced and what's interesting is it might actually only be about six to seven hours away from Tesla Giga or the Tesla Giga Texas Austin now what's really cool about that in my opinion is as soon as you cross the border your average hourly wage plummets and this is not to say that you want to take advantage of people who are working for less it's that these areas don't have a lot of companies that drive up the competition for labor to help get get people to a level where they can earn more money Tesla coming in here demanding more labor increases the demand for labor in Texas and you can see the average hourly earnings in Texas actually grow go up if you Google the average hourly earnings for a person in Mexico and you consider the fact that minimum wage in California is like 15.5 you consider that a Texas it's probably what nine bucks or something Texas minimum wage let's say uh oh it's 7 25.
okay either way in America you're looking at seven bucks to 15 right Mexico manufacturing industry sitting around three dollars and fifty cents that's crazy so you actually have substantially cheaper labor in Mexico which is wonderful for Tesla because you're lowering the cost of manufacturing Vehicles a lot I mean think about it if you're paying 15.50 for a worker in California and you could be paying 350 for a worker in Mexico you're paying 4.4 times as much for a human being in California or twice as much for a human in Texas now the good news for workers and taxes because I never want anybody to think oh my gosh that's like slave labor taking advantage of people well first of all the cost of living is lower in Mexico but second of all if Tesla goes to Mexico they'll actually again create more demand for labor and you can see that 350 go up to four so they're actually benefiting the area globalization is great because globalization leads to disinflation globally but it actually raises the standard of of living globally so globalization is a wonderful wonderful thing and the fact that we have trade agreements with Mexico and Canada enables us potentially to take advantage of that 7 500 EV tax credit for vehicles assembled or manufactured in Mexico or in Canada or in the United States which is really really good because now Tesla could basically manufacture vehicles for a lower cost while still earning that tax credit that's absolutely huge now we're expecting this specific City to be uh in uh we're expecting land for Tesla has already been purchased around Santa Katarina we expect this to be in a corridor of other vehicle manufacturers including GM Kia and Hyundai they're already there and Elon Musk has a goal of producing 20 million vehicles per year or about 20 percent of global output by 2030.
but we're never going to get there if we stop at 4.2 million Vehicles because we haven't manufactured new gigafactories so this is actually the perfect thing for Tesla to be doing there's a rumor also that that we might see Tesla manufacture or announce cargo vans in this area because in Mexico a lot of vehicles are cargo vans that are manufactured now cargo vans are really fascinating because maybe you build a factory in Mexico that doesn't have a battery line and you manufacture the batteries at Austin and you just ship the batteries over it's not too far it's seven hours away and then you build maybe cargo vans and you announce a completely new vertical for Tesla see one of the big problems for well let me explain this there are two types of cargo vans so there's a cargo van that is sort of like your your contractor's vehicle right Germany uses these types of vehicles and Europe uses these types of vehicles substantially more than pickup trucks because unfortunately the weather in Europe is a lot more wet and so they like having enclosed Vehicles now you can have a pickup truck with sort of a bed lid but you will see as many cargo trucks in Europe as you see pickup trucks in America everybody has cargo trucks and they're pretty neat because you could have shelves in the back I used to own a cargo truck for my construction company I love cargo trucks and in my opinion they're actually not that expensive to manufacture because you don't have as many bells and whistles you're just kind of a shell in the back but not only can you have a cargo truck that potentially is a Tesla that can now compete with Mercedes which if you think about it or or even Ford like the Ford Transit which if you think about it they could probably compete substantially better than Mercedes because you have massive import costs and tariffs that actually make the Mercedes van substantially more expensive here in America than they would be if they were just manufactured here in America and not by a German company now I do believe that Germany manufactures a lot of their Sprinter vans uh in in either Georgia I think they send them over manufacture and they assemble them in Georgia and some of it in Mexico they do that to try to lower those impacts of the tariffs but we don't have free trade agreements with Germany so if Tesla can do this now you've got a real competitor to the Ford Transit and you're kind of squeezing Mercedes these out of the way remember if you've ever been to Europe you might look around and go why is every taxi and cop car a Mercedes or a beamer that's like insanely expensive no it's actually not it's not that expensive because they're importing within Europe and they don't actually have all the crazy taxes now the second type of vehicle that you could do with a cargo configuration is you throw benches in the back this is your No Frills passenger van and then of course you could have various different sizes like this is the Mercedes mattress on the right it's a little smaller but passenger vehicles are something where in my opinion Tesla has really failed right now see I have a Tesla Model X and I have the seven seat configuration because I thought well I would like to have seven seeds so that way if I go with two children my in-laws and uh and myself and my wife you know that's six and maybe we have one more person like a nanny we're full the problem is I can't actually use the vehicle with the configuration I just described because when you put up the two seats in the back of the model X you have no trunk space anymore you've you're down to like a foot you can't even put a six pack of B okay maybe you could put a six pack of beer but you can't put a cooler of beer back there you'd have to have that on somebody's lap not that that is exactly what's happened to me before but it's frustrating so I asked Laura and I go hey you should get model X she's like no I want a mommy van and she has a mommy van she's got a Toyota Sienna and the reason for it totally makes sense when we put seven people in the car we could still put all of our luggage in the back and go to the airport can't do that with any Tesla however if Tesla came out with a passenger van and assembled these in Mexico boom completely New Vertical would be a brilliant brilliant brilliant uh move for Tesla and in my opinion I I mean I I'd be buying one instantly probably even before the Cyber truck don't get me wrong cyber truck is dope I really want the Cyber truck but in terms of like the functionality that I need especially for more children in the future we need a cargo van like a passenger van right anyway I want you to know a little bit more background so NAFTA the North American Free Trade Agreement which was created in 1994 was actually replaced by now the usmca which is the U.S Mexico Canada agreement which is basically an upgrade it's like more transparency uh more like fixes loopholes increases IP protections but the under the usmca Mexico just had a dispute resolution Victory between the three countries where Mexico wanted to be able to round up that if they produce 75 percent of a vehicle in Mexico that it would actually be rounded up to 100 Regional content for when they ship it to the United States and that's important for other metrics that they try to hit Mexico Canada would benefit from that but so would a company like Tesla if Tesla has a manufacturing plan in Mexico well Mexico won that dispute resolution panel and so now Mexico and Canada can actually round up that if a vehicle is produced with 75 Parts it could be deemed a hundred percent regionally free trade produced this is a huge game changer and Mexico is already the sixth largest manufacturer of heavy duty vehicles for the cargo world and they're the largest tractor expense or exporter in the world so if we go Tesla cargo vehicle Mexico could be the perfect spot for that but of course they could also have another assembly line for let's say a three or a y or even the Cyber truck because labor is less expensive so either way you slice it whether you're going to make Cargo Vans at Tesla Mexico or you're going to just make more of the same Vehicles the idea that Tesla is producing or going to create a new gigafactory is exactly what we need to keep the growth story going for Tesla to keep the valuation up for Tesla at some point in the future the future price to earnings ratio for Tesla will rotate down this is the law of large numbers and sometimes people call it the s-curve the s-curve very very simple when you first start building you produce very very little Vehicles right you start building you produce a little Vehicles then you gramp exponentially and then it slows down think of this like a growth rate maybe over here you're growing at fifty percent fifty percent fifty percent over here you're only growing at you know thirty percent or maybe you're growing honestly is probably more your baby growing at 200 but your actual output is super low right well at some point that's probably a better way to look at it at some point in the future that growth is going to go to 10 or 5 and this is where the multiple for Tesla will collapse but if Tesla gets to 20 million Vehicles before they get to this level boy oh boy you could have a phenomenally higher stock price before you even start downgrading the future multiple especially if Tesla in 10 years actually starts a new S curve called the Tesla robot right and then you're building an s-curve on top of an S curve so what we're seeing with this gigafactory announcement for Mexico in my opinion absolutely brilliant this is what Tesla needs to do I've been talking about this all year long about copy and pasting more gigafactories and it's finally here I'm very very excited about that we should get the official announced ultimate within the next couple of weeks here and uh yeah keep in mind as well that Mexico employs about 1 million people in the automotive industry there are third largest trade partner they're the sixth largest passenger vehicle manufacturer in the world producing 3.7 million passenger vehicles annually they're the fifth largest producer of components Auto Parts worldwide largest export market for U.S auto parts fourth largest exporter of heavy duty vehicles and this is great out of this production 64 of their vehicles or SUVs minivans and Pickups the remaining 36 percent were heavy duty Vehicles established Brands here are stalantis BMW Audi GM Honda Kia Mazda Nissan Volkswagen Toyota pretty sure Mercedes is somewhere over there as well but I don't see that here on the trade agreement website anyway this is very exciting uh I think this is perfect this is just what Tesla needs and uh hey you know what you know how people say be fearful when people are greedy and be greedy when people are fearful everybody's fearful right now so what are you
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