저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
AI는 컴퓨팅·데이터·인재·자금 4요소를 바탕으로 한 장기 구조적 변화라고 강조. 미 연준은 금리 인하 3회를 6월부터 시작할 것이라는 신호를 유지해야 하며, 시장과의 정합성이 중요. 미국 경기 강세(성장률 3%대)가 금리 부담을 상쇄해 주식시장이 강세를 보였고, 해외 증시도 미국 대비 저평가 매력에 따른 자금 유입 수혜. 인플레이션 목표 2%는 서두를 필요가 없고 실질적 목표는 약 3%일 수 있음. 경기 시나리오: 연착륙 55%, 경기침체 30%, 생산성 급등에 따른 노랜딩 15%. 가장 큰 위험은 연준이 너무 오래 긴축을 유지하는 것.
다듬은 글
Mohamed, What a week it's been. I just want your early response, your initial reaction to the price action yesterday off the back of earnings on one single name. I think Jon is totally understandable. I think there is a revolution going on in I said by four things that will only grow in importance, and that is computing power, data, talent and financing.
There's a very long runway both on the supply side and on the demand side for this sector. On the supply side, we're going to see capabilities improving, expanding on on the demand side. It's not just about add ons that a lot of companies are talking about today and trying to do. It is about developing things that are native.
So when I look at this, I totally understand the excitement about the sector and I totally understand how that sector can suck investment into many other things. So it doesn't surprise me. This is a secular story drawn now. Will there be excesses in parts of the market? Of course there will be. But but there is something real going on that can enhance productivity and have a huge impact.
Secondary market in a secular story. Can we talk about the cyclical impact, Mohammed, who we're talking to again to Nordvig of ex-ante data and he was making the connection between what would happen to growth in America, to productivity in America, and how the Federal Reserve might have to reconsider how high rates might have to be in the years to come.
Are you making that connection yet? In years to come. Yes, John, But this is not a Fed that has been basing policy on years to come. This is a Fed that's been been basing policies on past data. It's been overly data dependent. But he's right in the sense that when working out productivity and growth potential, you've got to factor that in.
It is a transformational and it's not the only one, Jon, you know, for you've been hearing me three that say there's three of them. There's what's happening to Janet. If I does, what's happening to life sciences and there's what's happening to green energy. And you've talked to my colleague Michael Spence on these issues and you know how strongly he feels as well.
Spencer is fantastic. I want to talk about the recent Fed communication we've had as well. Mohamed Governor Waller, what's the rush? Do you share that opinion? What is the rush? Do you remember when when you repeated what I said a few months ago when you asked me what's going to happen? I told you what?
Let me tell you what should happen and what. Let me tell you what will happen. And I said at that time, three cuts starting in June. And that was at a time when the market was seeing 6 to 7 cuts starting in March. So we are now in a really good spot. We are now at a point where the market has finally converged to what the Fed has signaled.
And it's really important to try and maintain that alignment because there's so much else going on. So I think it is right to say patience, but that communication shouldn't go too far. What's going to be hard, John, is to stick to the three cuts, both by the market and by the Fed at a time when the inflation data is going to get much more bumpy.
Mohamed, what surprised me. I'll tell you what didn't surprise me. That spread closing had to close. I'll tell you something else that didn't surprise me how that spread closed was with you. The market coming today towards the Federal Reserve. It's what didn't happen as that spread close, that shocked me.
We've priced down all those cuts we had priced in since the end of October. We've pushed out the timing. We've reduced the magnitude of interest rate cuts this year. And yet still this equity markets carried on rallying the two year gilts up 50 basis points in just something like three weeks and change happened and still this equity market carried on running.
And if you'd asked me at the time, whatever my views worth back then, if we were going to close that gap in that fashion, if two year yields, we're going to reprice higher by let's say 50 basis points in three weeks. I would have said stocks down, stocks down, hard stocks are up. How do you explain that, Mohammed?
How important is monetary policy to equity market pricing given the dynamics in NVIDIA, in AI, in big tech? You know, John, simply put, it's one of three factors. Interests are at risk, of course, has been a significant headwind. But you've had two very strong tailwinds. One we just talked about, which is the secular journey that we've embarked on, led by these incredible innovations.
And then the second significant tailwind is the strength of the economy. You know, we were also surprised by a 3.3% growth rate in the fourth quarter. We were also surprised by an almost 5% growth rate in the third quarter. And the U.S. locomotive has been strong enough to offset the numbers you showed in terms of recessions in Germany, U.K.
and Japan. Do you think that should lift all boats abroad, though? And you mentioned the recessions in the U.K., Germany and Japan. We've also got all time highs in Germany and Japan. Can you explain that just by the US alone? Well, what are you guys playing by is people looking at valuations, differentials and seeing that other markets look incredibly cheap relative to the US and wanting to go fishing there as well.
You know, a lot of people have been saying, well, if I'm going to invest at the US at these levels, just look at how much cheaper other markets are. So you're getting massive spillovers because people are looking at relativities strong. Do you think those easing financial conditions should be of concern to certain central banks still grappling and lacking confidence of getting inflation back down towards target?
So you taking me to the question that, you know, I don't really like discussing, which is what is the appropriate target? We living in a world where, given everything that's going on in the supply side, we're talking about geopolitics, we're talking about companies rewiring their supply chains. We're talking about what's happening in the labor market.
That when you look at all this, if I was a central banker, I would be aiming at actually long journey back to 2%. I wouldn't rush to get back to 2% because in the back of my mind, I would believe, as I believe right now, that if I was to set an inflation target today, it will be higher to 2%. It would be closer to 3%.
But of course, I can't change that because I've missed my target for so long. So I in the back of my mind, I would not be in a rush to force it back to 2%. And that's really important. If that is my, my, my mindset, then I can live with these financial conditions. If my mindset is I need to get to 2% really quickly and that's the right inflation target, then I would be concerned about financial conditions.
Well, but we also have to acknowledge why you said that all that time ago. The reason you said that is because you believed initially that in order to get back to 2% and oversight, 18 months, two years, we needed to crush the economy to do that. The lesson of last year was that maybe we don't. Perhaps What's the question now that you'd be asking with regards to that, do you think we can achieve that inflation target without crushing the service side of the economy, given the disinflationary trends that have emerged over the previous six months?
So let me give you my probabilities. I think it's about 55% probability that we can that we can get towards a stable inflation rate that's low enough. It won't be 2%, but that's low enough. And that's stable enough that it anchors in inflation expectations without crushing the economy. I'll give that a 55%.
I'd give a 30% probability that either because of an external shock. And there's a lot going on in the world right now or a domestic political change or a policy mistake from the Fed of staying too tight for too long. 15% that will slip into a mild recession. Sorry, 30% will slip into recession. And 15% is that the productivity gains that will occur over a number of years.
Happen much more quickly. And then we find out that we get to what some people call the no landing. That growth stays incredibly robust while inflation stays well behaved. Mohamed Governor Waller yesterday was talking about they want to see a couple of months of inflation data to make sure that they are prepared for these cuts.
You're looking at, June, What needs to happen in terms of goods, disinflation between now and June for you to be comfortable? No, I'm comfortable now and I'm comfortable now because I look way beyond. I think that data dependency doesn't mean data obsession. It is very, very, very problematic if you get obsessed by buy data because you need to look forward your measures, act with a lag.
As you know, I'm married. So if you are totally basing policies on the last few months of data, you will get it wrong. And that is why we have had such a reactive Fed. That is why communication has been such a problem. So I don't need to see two more months of data to feel comfortable cutting three times starting in June because of what I see ahead.
But if this Fed remains obsessed with being data dependent and seemingly solely data dependent, that they want to see goods inflation staying well tamed while service inflation coming down, that's what they need to see. Mohamed, let's just finish this segment by asking a simple question. I know it's difficult to answer, but what evidence is there that they are sufficiently restrictive?
Looking across the economic data we've had not over the last month, but over the last 12. So borrowing costs have gone up. True spreads haven't gone up like everybody expected. But that has to do with the fact that credit risk has got has been supported by economic growth. Inflation has come down and it's not just a supply side issue.
We've seen major adjustment in interest rate sensitive sectors. So there is evidence that they've had an impact through higher rates. John, My concern honestly, is that now the market and the Fed surprised by the fact that the inflation numbers are getting more bumpy, will end up being too tight for too long.
Okay, let's just go there again. Let me ask that question, Mohamed. You think the biggest risk here is that they hold too long, not cut too soon? Correct. If they don't cut in June, then you'll hear me say, oh, no, we now making the opposite policy mistake that we made back in 2021.
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