Ed Yardeni Doubts Recession and Sees Bull Market Continuing

요약 보기

Yardeni는 강세장이 계속되며 경기침체는 없다고 봄. 2024년 S&P500 주당이익 약 $250(2023년 $220 대비) 전망, 2025~2026년 이익 성장 지속 예상. 과거 5400 목표 대신 2025년 말 6000 제시. 과잉낙관은 있으나 아직 비합리적이라 보기는 어렵고, MMF 약 6조 달러 대기자금 존재 지적. 기술 생산성 혁신(‘포효하는 2020년대’)과 숙련인력 부족 해소를 근거로 제시. 2023년 생산성 증가율 2.7% 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. It's been a go go market. I mean, it just keeps going. Certainly hasn't budged this year. It's been straight up actually since October of last year. We had a bit of a correction from August to October last year, but it's also been more or less straight up with a brief 10% correction since October of 2022.

02. So it's been a phenomenal bull market. And Tom, for those our viewers on YouTube, that is a bookshelf. I have like three books on my book. He is Dr. Arden. He has a bookshelf. A book excuse me, The blue button. The blue button is the Detroit Lions button. Thank you. Your dad has got up there every book Robert Shiller's ever written.

03. That's what it is. So, Ed, I mean, one of the things that I think concerns that some people have now is just, boy, is we've gone a little bit too far too fast over the last 3 to 4 months because we haven't seen earnings necessarily follow the performance of some of these risk assets. Well, we've seen earnings turning out to be surprisingly good for the Mega-cap eight, and those stocks have done quite well.

04. And we've seen as a result of that, we've seen these stocks do very, very well. But overall, the economy is doing very well. And earnings, I think, are going to be something like $250 per share for the S&P 500 this year, and that would be up from 220 last year. And then beyond that, I think we'll see earnings continue to grow into 2025 and 2026.

05. So I don't see a recession to think it keeps going. And I want to frame out the shock 60 days ago where you said we're going to 5400 aspects. I did the fancy math and got the Dow Jones Industrial Average out to 43,000 and that number, Do you get any sense that there's salary and exuberance out there?

06. Are we getting a Robert Shiller, Alan Greenspan, Irrational exuberance? I don't feel it. I think we've got exuberance for sure. And then it's debatable whether it's irrational yet right now it looks like irrational exuberance. We still have a lot of money just parked on the side, earning money market funds.

07. We got something like $6 trillion just in money market funds. So money isn't exactly pouring out of short term assets. Yes, I don't think the market will click quickly. Or is it going to go is is the money market fund going to support the Yardeni 5400 aspects? Well, 5400, it doesn't look so amazing anymore.

08. Yes. That's why I'm talking about 6000 by the end of next year. There we go. Under 50. 400 isn't as impressive as 6000 by the end of next year, given how much territory we've covered. And you're dealing with this, I can't say enough about as researcher comes in different platforms. Yardeni quick takes is worth its weight in gold.

09. It's short shorts, short focused, and it synthesizes. In his Yale economics, all of his work on Wall Street over the decades into a call an optimism in the American economic experiment to wit. And I go back to what I call the Yardeni and compare Perillo two giants, Ed Yardeni and the technical analyst Ralph Ingram for a lonely in October of 2022 and to get up to the Dow equivalent 46,000, which is FDR, Denny's ESP 6000 is a lift of 61%.

10. Dr.. You're Danny is that a normal lift out of an INXS time when everybody's gloomy is up 60% normal? Well, it doesn't come with a money back guarantee. I mean we always have risk in our forecasts and we have to acknowledge that there are risks, there are geopolitical risks. There's always the risk that the price of oil spikes up again.

11. But my base case is what I call the roaring 2020s. It does rhyme with the roaring 1920s, and in this case I think the technology innovations that are out there to boost productivity are already working. There's a significant shortage of labor in our country. Skilled labor and technology is going to solve that problem and productivity.

12. And again, the Mauboussin Callahan Morgan Stanley essay is brilliant and it's February and it's already massive this here. What's that about? Maybe subject to change but I'm productivity Ed Yardeni it's about corporations adapting, right? There's layoffs there's right sizing and that it's not about cost cutting.

13. What's it about? A new efficiency? I think it's exactly about a new efficiency. It's technology led. It doesn't mean that people are going to lose their jobs. I mean, there is always churn in our labor market. We are seeing some of these technology companies cutting back in areas where they just don't see much upside anymore.

14. But I think most of the. Those people are going to find jobs very, very quickly. They're very skilled and there is a real shortage of skilled workers. I think what technology does is it augments the the productivity of workers and therefore allows for the economy to grow more quickly. The labor force has only been growing around 1% or less over the past few years.

15. And that's all we have to look forward to with real GDP if there's no productivity growth. But companies and businesses and entrepreneurs are aspirational and they are going to use technology to increase productivity. And it's already happening. We had an amazing three quarters last year, last three quarters. Productivity was extremely strong for the year as a was 2.7%.