저자: HamishHodder · 외국인
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찰리 멍거의 정신적 원칙(남들과 다른 길 택하기, 합리성 추구, 자기기만 경계)을 소개하는 영상이며, 대부분이 교육 플랫폼 홍보다. 멍거의 원칙: 다수를 따르기보다 옳은 길을 택하고, 단기적 고통을 감수하면 장기적으로 존경을 얻는다. 투자 관점: 주가 차트의 단기 등락을 예측하기보다 기업의 장기 수익성을 분석해야 하며, 2~3년 이내는 단기로 본다. 현대 포트폴리오 이론 비판: 주가 변동성을 위험으로 보는 이론은 주가가 하락한 우량 기업을 더 위험하다고 잘못 판단하게 한다. 주가가 낮아지면 기업이 같은 수익률을 내기 위해 필요한 이익이 줄어들어 오히려 위험이 낮아진다는 논리다. 합리성: 정보를 무조건 받아들이지 말고 논리적으로 검증하며 의사결정할 것을 강조한다. 홍보: 'Learn by Example' 가치투자 교육 과정이 4월 등록 기간 동안 14일간 30% 할인 중이라는 내용이 반복된다. 구체적 종목·지수에 대한 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
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if you could learn some of our tricks you can get more successful life than you deserve that's what happened to me Charlie manga is one of the most successful value investors of all time his partnership in the 60s and 70s generated a 19.8% compounded return while the Dow Jones returned just 5% in today's video I'm going to share with you the mental tricks that Charlie Munger spoke about in a recent speech that he says allowed him to achieve more success than he deserved but before I show you the first clip I am pleased to announce that learn by example is now open for April enrollment learn by example is a platform and community that I run for a small number of long term investors who want to gain more confidence and consistency in their investments by diving deeper into the analysis process students get access to 30 hours of stock analysis reports and 60-minute presentations plus new ones are released every two weeks which serve as case studies for developing and understanding of stock analysis students also have access to a private community of like-minded investors where you can participate in weekly Q&A live streams and have access to me Monday through Saturday for all your investing related questions there are so many online courses out there right now that just repurpose information that you could find in a few $10 books but they do not provide the learning environment that is necessary for you to be able to apply the principles that you learn in those books and that is exactly what learn by example provides for its students and on top of all of that students also get access to the brand-new Judgment Day module which is a comprehensive step-by-step guide to the intrinsic value portion of the analysis process which for many people is the most difficult part to nail down figuring out how much cash a business can return to you and therefore what price you should be willing to pay for that business for the next 14 days you can get a whopping 30% off the regular price if you use the coupon code Easter at checkout all of the links to information about everything that you get access to as well as how you can sign up at the discounted price is all down in the description below so if you're interested you're a long-term investor and you're interested in diving deeper into the process working closely with me then check it out down in the description below and get yourself 30% off for the next 14 days I stumbled into a few metal tricks early in life and I just use them over and over again I take the high road because it's less crowded and of course that's a smart thing to do this first trick that Charlie Munger talks about is taking the high road which for those who don't know what that means it basically means doing the right thing even though it's not always the most popular thing and we see this in every area of our lives but it is perfectly attributable or perfectly applicable I should say to the investing world as well because what is the right thing to do when you're investing well the right thing to do is that you should analyze the underlying business that you are buying a piece of and look at its long-term prospects in order to see what kind of return you would likely generate out of that business based on how much profit it's going to generate for you over a ten or maybe even over a longer period but this is not what most people do this is not the popular route the popular route is the one that most fund managers most hedge fund managers mutual fund managers and in fact what most individuals take which is to look at a stock as a price on a chart to be trying to predict the price movements of a stock on a chart in the short term and what I'm talking about short term I'm not talking about day trading or even trying to make a profit in a week I consider anything within two years or even within three years maybe to be short term because businesses operate on cycles that can go over half a decade or even in an entire decade which means that anything over a shorter horizon is something that I would consider short term it is at the mercy of short-term impacts that could hurt a business for a six-month period or a 12-month period and the problem with having a focus on trying to find stocks that will go up over the next six months or the next 12 months is because it goes completely against the logic of analyzing the underlying business there could be a fantastic business but all great businesses go through short-term periods that are bad so to avoid great companies because they're going through some kind of short-term problem particularly because if they are in a short-term problem their stock price is probably at a better price than it was before the problem arose is just illogical because fund managers will not invest in a company that will be a loser for a two-year period they couldn't do it even though it could be the best time to invest in that company in order to have the best return over a 10-year period they cannot forego the short term for the long term and this principle doesn't just relate to investing of course it is relevant in every area of our lives all the time I see people I think most people operate in this way I think most people operate in such a way that they are more happy they are more willing to follow the majority in the short term even if they know it's the wrong thing to do because they don't want to go through the short-term pain of going against the majority even if the long-term outcome is favorable for them what what most people need to realize is that if you constantly do the right thing and you go against the majority in some circumstances yes in the short term that might be painful but over the long term you will gain lifelong respect out of all of the people around you for sticking with your morals doing the right thing even though it was painful for you at the time an example in order to illustrate this is if you think about an employee who stands up to his manager or his boss in in a meeting for example so you can imagine you have a meeting with 20 people there the boss is saying but they want to do this certain thing with the business and everyone else in the room is just nodding their heads agreeing if the individual employee stands up and says that no I think you're wrong to the manager that's going to cause quite a bit of short-term pain for that person because they're not only standing up to their boss who has authority over them they're also standing up against all of the other people in the room who following the boss but to go through that short-term pain and stand up for what is right over the long term that person will enjoy it will earn the respect of all of the people around them when it turns out that the manager was in fact wrong so going I guess it sort of comes back to being able to go against the majority even though it's painful in the short term in order to do what is right so that you can benefit over the long term and that applies in investing but it also implies up applies in many other areas of your life and then I I feel what there's a I was raised by people who thought it was a moral duty me as rational as you could possibly make yourself and that notion which was just inherited basically from my jeans and my surroundings it served me enormous ly well the second principle here from Charlie manga is that it is your moral duty to be as rational as possible in as many circumstances as possible and this basically means that you need to be able to not turn a blind eye to logic to rationale you always need to dive in and make sure that what you're doing or the facts that you're relying on make sense logically that there's they're based in rationale when you're making decisions whether it's investing or in other areas of your life it needs to follow a logical set of principles you can't just rely on the information that has been provided to you by someone even if that someone is the majority in one circumstance Charlie Munger then speaks about how a part of being highly rational comes from having something else which is radical truthfulness from telling the truth and really just not lying to yourself or to other people consistently and he draws an example he speaks about but I want to draw another example in the finance world which is all of these fund managers who all together have been drilled into their mind since University and all through their corporate career that's something like Modern Portfolio Theory makes sense that is it is the only way that you should have approach investing even though there are very very successful investors such as Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger and a ton of other value investors who can present very rational and logic facts through these people these people because they've been lying to themselves for so long and because they've been lied to by all of the people that are around them they start to believe their lies as truth and in those circumstances there is no logical or rational information that you could show them that they would then change their mind it's so ingrained in their mind and that is a quick way in order to not gain success over your life by lying to yourself consistently to the point at which you believe the lies that you're telling and for those who don't know what I'm talking about when I say Modern Portfolio theory well it is the investing philosophy or strategy that most fund managers use these days and among other things it suggests that the price volatility the how quickly a price changes impacts the risk of the underlying business or of the stock and therefore the underlying business so in that theory if you had a business that had zero debt tons of cash on the balance sheet it was in a great industry that's growing over time it has distinct competitive advantages it's a major player it has one of the best management teams of all time well if that great business had a had a sharp stock price movement down then modern portfolio theory suggests that that business just or that stock I should say became more risky it was riskier whereas a long term or a value investor would kind of question the logical the rationale of that and say well hey if it's a solid long term business even though their stock price went down sharply in the short term wouldn't you think that because the price of that great business that isn't going anywhere is cheaper wouldn't you think that the risk has actually gone down the reason why the risk has gone down in a great business when its stock price goes down is because the business then needs to generate less profit in order to make you a good return if a stock price is at $100 per share and then it drops to $50 per share then that company that company needs to return to you half as much profit in order to satisfy your return because you're paying half as much so a rational person a logical person would draw the conclusion that if a business is strong and stable and it has great prospects and it meets all of the other requirements of a great business if its stock price goes down it becomes less risky whereas modern portfolio theory is this fantastic theory that all of these fund managers use even though they can't outperform the market that suggests that that business has become more risky and that you should sell that business and a choir one that is less risky and I know that I just went way off track from what we were talking about but to sort of get this back on track when we're talking about making sure that you are consistently being rational in as many situations as possible it just basically means that when you're making decisions whether it comes to investing or in other areas of your life you need to question what you're doing you need to question the facts that you're applying the information that you're using in order to make decisions not just accepting information as fact or as correct and then applying it to your decision making make sure you go through the motions of questioning whether what information you're using makes sense so that you can make rational decisions as often as possible throughout your life so I hope this video provided you some value and explain some of the philosophies or principles or mental tricks that Charlie Munger has used throughout his life in order to amass wealth and become successful in his own eyes so if you did enjoyed today's video and you want to see more videos like this then I suggest that you hit the subscribe button and if you enjoyed the video then you can leave it a like and let me know your thoughts down in the comment section below and just as a reminder before we finish out this video if you are a long-term or a value investor and you're interested in diving deeper into stock analysis and joining a community of like-minded investors a learning environment then I'd consider joining learn by example over the next two weeks because it's 30% off and it's the cheapest price that it will ever be so if you're interested you've been thinking about it you're on the fence or maybe you've never heard about it then check out more information down in the description below but if you're interested I highly recommend that you take advantage of this opportunity and join up now but other than that thanks everyone for watching and I'll see you guys in the next video
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