저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 달리오는 통화 발행 확대로 현금은 실질 수익률이 마이너스인 '쓰레기'이며, 금·위험자산 등 인플레이션 환경에 강한 자산이 낫다는 입장이다. [패시브 투자와 액티브 투자] 마이클 버리의 패시브 투자 붐 되돌림 주장에 대해 직접 답하지 않고, 지수 구성 종목들의 개별 상황 차이가 커지면서 똑똑한 액티브 투자자에게 초과수익 기회가 생긴다고 봤다. ETF·지수펀드의 일괄 매매가 개별 종목 차이를 무시해 비효율을 만든다는 지적. [경제 기계와 부채 사이클] 1930~45년처럼 금리가 0%에 근접하면 중앙은행 화폐 발행과 자산 매입만으로는 자금이 원하는 곳에 흐르지 않아 중앙정부 차입과 통화 발행이 결합된다. 미국 달러는 세계 거래의 약 70%를 차지해 미국이 전 세계에 돈과 신용을 공급할 위치에 있다. [채권과 현금] 마이너스 실질·명목 금리 상태에서 채권 보유자들은 자산의 가치를 의심하게 될 것이며, 이자 없는 현금도 가장 안전한 자산이 아니라고 봤다. [현금은 쓰레기인가] 코로나 직후 자산가치 급락으로 현금이 상대적으로 매력적으로 보였으나, 중앙은행의 대규모 발행으로 금리가 다시 낮아졌다. 현금은 연 수 % 규모의 실질 손실이 누적되므로 여전히 쓰레기이며, 인플레이션기(reflation)에 가치를 지키는 금·일부 주식 등이 대안이라고 말했다. [리스크와 조건] 통화 발행 확대와 부채 누적이 전제이며, 그 조건이 바뀌면 판단도 달라질 수 있다. 특정 종목·지수에 대한 가격 목표나 단기 방향 제시는 없었다. [기타 발언] 삶의 의미는 진화와 기여이며, 평화와 자기 돌봄이 부와 권력 경쟁보다 중요하다는 입장. 출연자 전망 중 한국 자산 언급은 없음.
다듬은 글
I'm Ray Dalio founder of Bridgewater associates and author of Principles life work ask me anything there is so much to talk about in this unique time I'm especially interested in discussing with you principles of life work economics and investing as it applies to what's going on now if you're interested in my really big picture perspective you might want to read my piece the changing world order which is on LinkedIn and you might ask me about dear a Michael burry has come out saying that the pandemic could unwind the passive investment boom does he mean popular index trackers and ETS like Vanguard and if these just track indices like the S&P 500 how can it unwind without the underlying indices unwinding also which currencies would you be buying currently for a medium-term outlook many thanks charlie you'll have to speak to Michael burry about what he means that I wouldn't presume to know however concerning passive versus active investing and ETFs I think smart active investors will now have a great opportunity to outperform them because of how different the conditions of the companies and items and them are are from one another I think we have entered a period in which the usual generalizations that index trackers and ETS are created around will be much less important than the individual conditions within them I think that the ATF's and index funds contribute to the inefficiencies because the selling and buying of them affects all of the items in them without regard for those items differences hi ray you've talked a lot about cycles of leveraging and de leveraging throughout the 20th century within principles big debt crises in terms of the economic machine I was wondering what your thoughts were about the current market environment relative to these concepts with respect to the domestic US and global economy Thanks I will answer your question in brief but hope that you will read my comprehensive explanation of how money and credit cycles have worked throughout history which I expect to put on LinkedIn and principles calm in the next couple of days or if you want a quicker more entertaining take on this what the economic machine works on YouTube in brief now like in the 1930 to 1945 period interest rates out hit zero percent and printing money and buying financial assets doesn't get the money and credits to go where policymakers wanted to go so the central government borrows a lot in the central bank prints a lot of money and creates a lot of credit to buy this debt which the central government spends to target what they want to save the US government including the central government and the central bank isn't the unique position of being able provide the money and credit that the world needs because the US dollar is the world's dominant reserve currency while the US accounts for about 20% of the world economy the US dollar accounts for about 70% of the world's buying selling borrowing and lending those who will get dollars and to a lesser extent euros and to a much lesser extent yen who need this money and credit to make up for their lost income and inability to pay debts will benefit more than those who will not get this money and credit such as those in emerging countries I believe that increasingly there will be questions by bondholders who are receiving negative real and nominal interest rates while there is a lot of printing of money about whether the debt assets they are holding our good story holds of wealth I believe that cash which is non interest-bearing money will not be the safest asset to hold I really appreciate your research summarization and writing could you share more about your process for instance how do you schedule time for writing and research how do you decide what to read how do you take notes do you need to force yourself to write orders that come naturally could you share some tips for the people who feel they have something to say but find it hard to have the motivation or can't find the right process the way I research and might is an iterative process in which I delve into the subjects in various ways write down what I think triangulate it with the world's greatest experts who I ask to tear it apart or offer new ideas that time is to stress test it do or research writing and triangulating until I reach the point of diminishing returns however I never stopped this process because I never adequately learned to satisfy my important curiosities what I read is typically those books and other sources of information which are written by brilliant experts in the areas that I'm drawn to learn more about as far as how I shed all my time I have a number of strategic objectives that I am unwaveringly on a path to accomplish and pursue in a highly variable way that is optimized for the trade-offs that I spend at the moment more generally I have a deep sense of responsibility to others who are partners in my pursuing my passions such as those I work with and our investors and their beneficiaries as I attempt to understand the world the economy and the markets and then successfully bet on what they will do of course my family my closest friends and my other treasured relationships led me to spend time in ways that are appropriate to them I do a lot and I love it and I benefit a lot from the help of others who provide lead Ridge to me what is the meaning of life I believe that it is to evolve and contribute to evolution I think that is true for everything in the universe which does these things in an interactive perpetual motion sort of way through time I believe that nature naturally rewards us with the gratification of doing it well hi ray big fan of yours a few months ago you said cash is trash but now cash is king what gives I'm glad you asked so that I can clarify back then and still now I believe that central banks will print a lot of money and keep cash interest rates at such low levels that they will have negative real returns and negative returns relative to assets that behave well in times of reflation when the virus hit and it had its negative impact on earnings and balance sheets asset values plummeted which made cash look comparatively attractive however what did the central banks do they created a ton more cash to buy debt and push interest rates lower which is having the effect of pushing those assets that will be better suited for the new environment are when you think about what sar SafeZone and you think of cash please remember that while it doesn't move around in value as much as other assets there is a costly negative return to it in relation to goods and services and other financial assets that amounts to about a couple of percent a year which adds up so I still think that cash is trash relative to other alternatives particularly those that will retain their value or increase their value during reflation era periods for example some gold and some stocks who have you spoken to recently that surprised or inspired you with their perspective and approach to the current crises what did they say how did it impact you those who surprised and inspired me the most pertaining to the crisis were those who ran into the fire to hell we each have contact with different people who do this so I will only touch on the ones that I've had direct contact with they include health care workers because I'm on a hospital board which allows me to have an inside picture teachers are the coolest students who are finding ways to educate them despite the obstacles presented by poverty because of the work that my wife teachers and others are doing for disengaged and disconnected high schoolers in CT small merchants through my window in microfinance through Grameen America and people companies and even other countries who are significantly contributing but remaining anonymous partially because of their preference for anonymity and partially because of their fears of being attacked however I am most impressed by folks who are on the front lines and in often cases suffering financially but are unwaveringly doing the right things to help others in Chapter one of the changing world order you wrote those countries who believe that having peace and suffering life are more important than having a lot of wealth and power wouldn't think of fighting hard enough to gain enough of the wealth and power to make it into the group included in this study in your own life how have you thought about person peace and Saverin life versus pursuing wealth and power please keep thinking and writing I love your work I think that pursuing peace and savoir in life rather than fighting over wealth and power is much wiser I don't believe that most people in most places where the culture habituates fighting over wealth and power truly appreciates the alternative I think a lot about what money is worth and believe that it has no intrinsic value so to answer this one must look beyond it to ask oneself what is most important to have that money can buy I believe that for most people it starts with taking care of oneself in one's family that is their basic health education and maintenance needs then the needs of those who are closest around them and increasingly those beyond them which includes the greater community the more that happens and the more important these others become relative to oneself the more peaceful and harmonious the society is for these reasons I believe that how we will behave with each other will determine how society's fate there is more than enough wealth to go around to take care of most people's basic health and education needs which if done well will raise the Society's productivity and increase the size of the pie thank you for sharing your time to answer our questions I am curious about those sinks and your plans for the future I have never been in a trite answer just those with a few small viewports but the view looks amazing how do scientists explorers educators or artists become involved in no sinks fieldwork do you provide financial support or operate like the Schmidt Ocean Institute which grants access to the ship and research equipment at no cost also can you comment on the progress of them via you co2 and any interest you may have in the five deep ship and submersible D SS V pressure drop in the d sv limiting factor o seeks which is our endeavor to support ocean exploration and the awareness of it provides financial support to scientists explorers educators and artists as well as creates mind-blowing media that allows viewers to accompany these people under the sea the media takes many forms for example National Geographic the BBC and as me with the oversight of the remarkable director and ocean explorer James Cameron will be capturing these explorations in a Jake's Cousteau type series which will be made broadly available on National Geographic and other media distribution outlets beyond that there will be plenty of social media which you can get by following oh sinks and exhibitions such as that which you can see at the American Museum of Natural History and other museums Alastair to which we now call oceans pleura is nearing completion and will set sail this summer if you're interested you can follow us on Instagram Facebook Twitter Linkedin tik-tok and YouTube subscribe and click the notification bell to get the bestop british
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