저자: AlessioRastani · 외국인
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테슬라(TSLA)는 12월 바닥 반등 후 ABC 조정(파동2)을 진행 중으로 보며, C파동이 거의 완성됐다고 봄. 177~180 저항 돌파가 확인되면 파동3 상승이 시작되고 연말까지 240~275 도달 가능, 120 지지 이탈 시 강세 시나리오 무효. 단, 155 하향 이탈 시 143~133까지 추가 하락 가능성도 언급.
다듬은 글
if you look carefully this is a two standard deviation regression Channel so the top of that two standard deviation regression Channel meets us at about the same level as the yellow line how does last year hope you're well I thought it'd be a good time to do actually an update on the whole Tesla situation TSLA and what I want to do and then take a look at the chart of Tesla in this video and also take a look at it from an Elliott wave perspective what is what do Elliott waves tell us about what's going to potentially happen to Tesla stock all right guys should be quite interesting join me foreign guys welcome back so it's been a few weeks since my last video update on the whole Tesla situation and the chart and what I want to do is let me just first of all show you what I said in my earlier video this is the video I made back in April April 26th and as you can see here at the time when I made a video I was saying this is the video from April 26th and what I've done is just I've just Frozen or pause the video here so I can show you at the time I was saying it's quite likely the C wave of this ABC correction on Tesla is coming to an end or bottoming here again what I also said in that video was I'm waiting for a breakout also to confirm that the C wave of this Wave 2 or this correction is coming to an end and the breakout there was a break of resistance about 180 185 to confirm that the c-wave is completing or ending but also keeping it simple what I was saying in that video was that I think it's quite likely we're in completion stages or the final stages of the C wave of Wave 2 in this correction on on Tesla and as you can see here this is what Tesla has done since then you can see the Tesla at the moment by the looks of things yeah since that major rally that occurs again you may recall again I don't want to go through my earlier videos from January I've already mentioned them you may recall back in December I think it was late December I was calling for a reversal a major bounce on reversal potential capitulation on Tesla back in December January 2023 and I was expecting quite a strong bounce to the 174 to 200 region here and then from here A pullback or a correction as you can see here uh in fact Tesla by the looks of things has further increased the probability from the recent bounce that it had here in my view it's further increased the likelihood that we're dealing with an ABC correction likely a wave likely B wave and the potential C wave in fact if you measure this first initial or what I would call the potential a wave okay bear with me a wave potential B and if you measure that a wave down okay the first drop from the high we made here the likely B wave top then an exact 100 projection the 100 extension or projection gives us this level as a likely C wave because as we know typically the C wave is symmetrical with the a wave okay by the way if this is confused if this is confusing you don't worry it's going to get a bit simpler I'll give you a rundown summary of what I think is going to happen and I know some of you probably are confused by Elliot waves you're probably thinking what the heck what is LSA talking about here don't worry I'll just simplify it for you very quickly let me show you this as an example this is the Elliott wave model now I'm sure most of you have seen this chart something like this before but what I'm saying is this quite simply LED wave theory says that price tends to Trend or move in the direction the major Trend in five waves and go against the larger Trend in three waves or what's called a correction okay now if you look over here I think that that first big rally we had after we capitulated back in December that first major rally in Tesla was a likely way of one Phi waves up you know on the smallest on a smaller degree that was our likely wave one okay and then after we made the intermediate the intermediate highs there after the big rally the correction in my view has been ABC or wave two in fact you can see it very clearly here a wave down B wave high B wave bounce and a c wave drop the question is here's the big question has the C wave of two completed now even if it hasn't completed which I think we are in the process I think I'm going to show you in a few minutes I think we are in the process of completing this wave tube but I think once this wave two or once a c wave of this Wave 2 completes this is what I'm waiting for the big major rally for our wave three taking a significantly higher now let me just say this first of all in order for this Wave 3 to be confirmed in order for us to be more confident that we're entering a wave three then we need to break out above resistance I'll show you what the resistance is okay so that's what I'm waiting for the big major Rally For The Wave 3 which could take us towards the end of this year also the Wave 2 correction must stay above support I'll show you where support is as well so essentially that's what I think at the moment this is what I think Tesla is doing at the moment big Rally from December January and and I think uh it went all the way to March February March I think was and then pull back you know wave two ABC correction and I'm waiting for the wave three okay now that we got this out of the way let's go to the charts of Tesla okay so that was the rally here that I was talking about so this is the rally I was mentioning in my video in earlier in a few minutes ago there it is that's my likely wave one and this is the wave two okay by the way we don't know yet the Wave 2 is completed or ended but this is my view that this drop here was a likely a wave B wave C wave of a likely Wave 2 potential Wave 2 and once we get confirmation that this Wave 2 has ended or completed then we can say this is where this Wave 2 has completed but this is my view at the moment and by the way even if the even if the price of Tesla makes a lower low because we don't know yet I mean we don't have a we don't have certainty there's no certainty in any Market anyway but there is no certainty that Wave 2 has bottomed or completed here but let's say let's say the Wave 2 has bottomed okay then I need to see confirmation I'm going to show you confirmation is going to come when we take out this yellow line resistance 177 or about 180 level okay so in other words if this is a wave 2 correction of the ABC let me just write this down so one possible one probability is a wave B wave C wave of the wave two okay I'm hoping you're following me so far now can we say with a 100 certainty this Wave 2 or the C wave of the Wave 2 has bottomed and completed here and I was starting and we're starting wave three okay can we say the certainty no absolutely not because the markets are chaotic and they're uncertain they are unpredictable so just there can be never be any certainty okay and the wave three by the way by the way the Wave 3 would go significantly higher than that I'm not saying it's just going to Peak there it's going to go significantly higher than 250 or 240.
now my point is that at the moment we don't know with certainty or even a high probability that the Wave 2 or the C wave of the Wave 2 has bottomed at the moment I think the probability would increase however okay so I think the probability that the C wave of the Wave 2 has bottomed here would increase quite significantly if Tesla can now take out this resistance two resistance levels here as you can see the 50 SMA 50 simple moving average and the 177 region highs the yellow line that's the prior High we made just recently so I think that if Tesla can take that level out then I think the odds increase the bottom is in for this wave to or C wave of the Wave 2 correction however here's the point as long as uh Tesla so as long as Tesla stays below the 50 simple moving average and the prior recent high of 177 there is still a risk that it may make a lower low take this low out and move into this region okay because as always we have to look at the risks okay a lot of people don't even bother to do that I always look at risks in my analysis so what I'm saying is as long as Tesla stays below 177 we ought to be more cautious and much more careful because there is still a risk the Tesla may come and the C wave of this words if this is the C wave let me just write this down one more time a B okay A B C the C wave May potentially extend to here if this level if this recent lows get taken out okay so if if Tesla moves below 155 here approximate region here then the C wave could extend into this region that you're seeing here between 148 143 to about 133.
this region that you're seeing in this box for a potential C wave of of Tesla here okay that's if if Tesla has not already bottomed out and if it goes below 155 160 region then it could potentially move into this region for the C wave extension okay but even if here's the bottom line even if that happens to me it doesn't really matter because I still see this as the C wave okay even if it extends lower okay so no matter what happens even if the C wave whether the C wave of the correction has bottomed already or whether it extends into this region to me it really does not matter why because as I mentioned to you in a few weeks ago as long as Tesla stays above 120 120 is my support key support here as long as Tesla stays above 120 I'm remaining bullish long-term bullish for this year on Tesla okay so let me just repeat that point okay as long as and provided this is my invalidation point now if you if you think my invalidation point is a bit too low that's fine you can change it to something else you can say 130 if you like 133 but my point is as long as Tesla protects and stays above approximately 120 this region here I'm going to remain long-term bullish on Tesla and the reason I mentioned this level is because if Tesla were to break this level that means I'm wrong on my bullish thesis or my bullish expectation okay that's my invalidation point you could call it that some people call it a stop loss if you want to call it that it doesn't really matter but that's my uh that's the level I want to see protected okay why because below 120 then it could test the loads of um the lows of December or January all right so now we got this out of the way the question is what does Tesla need to do now to increase the odds that a bottom has been made on this ABC correction okay let me show you something interesting let me just zoom in I don't want to make this video too long here but let me just say this and I'll finish the video if you look at this recent rally from April to may look at this recent bounce now go on the lower time frame chart go on a one-hour chart I want to show you something really interesting here this is the one hour chart of that rally now look notice that the rally since the bounce the rally of the bounce since April is a five-way pattern one two three four five okay so to me this is an impulsive rally okay and I do like impulsive rallies because it increases the odds that this rally could start a trend a new trend however as I said I need confirmation above that yellow line so we have an impulsive rally so this could potentially be I'll write this down in blue this could potentially be a smaller degree wave one and this could potentially be a smaller degree wave to pullback which means what which means the next time Tesla takes out the 177 level here that could be the start of the Wave 3 a smaller degree smaller degree Wave 3 to take us to higher levels and let me show you one more thing if you do a regression Channel analysis just grab a regression channel on your chart okay and then draw from the high to the bottom to that low there look at this and let me go on a non-log I'm just going in standard linear chart look at this if you look carefully this is a two standard deviation regression Channel so the top of that standard deviation the top of that two standard deviation regression Channel meets us at about the same level as the yellow line notice there so about 170 780 approximately and the end of 50 SMA the 50 simple moving average that means this it means if Tesla can now show to us and persuade us by giving us a nice rally and a breakout above the 180 level 177 180 Above This regression channel that would give us a significantly higher probability that this ABC correction potential a wave B wave and a c wave has likely bottomed once we get that confirmation above 180 Above This regression Channel 180 177 region a close above that resistance would be a very strong prob would give us a very strong probability that we're this is likely one this is a 2 and the third wave is starting to much higher levels and the third Wave by the way so once we get the breakout confirmation I think we could potentially go to the higher levels I mentioned before yeah these are my shall we say conservative targets between 240 to about 270 275 over the long term over the potentially in the next several months going towards the end of this year now I'm being quite conservative here because it's possible it may go above these levels but those are the levels I'm looking for potentially by the next uh towards the end of the year 240 270 275 for the wave three and by the way wave three could go beyond those levels let me just say that but I'm just keeping it I'm keeping it conservative relatively here okay so that's really what I got again the important point I want to finish with is this let's just be patient and be cautious and I know some of you're going to say well unless you're repeating this point again yes I'm sorry about that the reason I'm repeating is so important because I want to emphasize this point about risk and the point is that I need to see confirmation first by a breakout above 180 177 because as long as Tesla stays below that resistance triple resistance by the way 50 SMA recent High regression Channel as long as Tesla stays below this triple resistance region here there is still a risk of a potential lower low into the region I mentioned here okay about 140 to 130 region here but I do think nevertheless whether it's bottomed already or not I do think we are in the completion stages we're in the the final stages of this corrective pattern okay I actually think the odds are increasing that Tesla is likely bottoming and the C wave of this ABC correction all I'm waiting for is that final confirmation break I want to see this level break this level I just mentioned about 170 780.
once I get a break and it close about these levels here that actually could significantly increase increase the likelihood that Tesla has bottomed here and we could start the next major wave Higher by the way if that happens if Tesla does that which I think is likely in the next several weeks then our our invalidation point the point of invalidation or the stop loss you're going to call it moves from 120 so before it was 120 then it moves up from 120 it moves to the the lows whatever loads that were made uh for example if if Tesla breaks it now uh this level then our stop loss or validation point would move to the lows here the lows that were made uh in April okay whatever lows that would be before the breakouts okay hope this video helps let me know if it has give it a like if this video has helped you in a new way thanks very much indeed and by the way also subscribe for future video updates thank you so much indeed I look forward to seeing the next video update cheers guys bye for now foreign
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