저자: AlessioRastani · 외국인
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테슬라 주가가 12월 저점 이후 ABC 조정 구조를 형성했으며 바닥이 형성됐다는 엘리엇 파동·피보나치 기반 분석. 1차 저항 174~182, 2차 저항 204~205를 제시하고 120 이상 유지 시 상승 지속을 전망. 180~185 돌파 시 조정 종료를 확인하고 올해 말 225~275 가능성을 언급.
다듬은 글
hey guys hope you're well let's let's you so I'm sure you're wondering what's happening on the chart of Tesla I haven't covered Tesla for quite a few months so let's talk about it join me all right guys welcome back so it's been quite a while since I mentioned Tesla so I want to cover the charts and tell you what I think is happening and what my expectations are for Tesla stock in the next several weeks and months by the way I'm making this video in a ferry I'm currently traveling on this ship from Portsmouth UK to Jersey a beautiful view here behind me as you can see the sea just amazing and nice weather here in the English Canal as just about a few hours away from Jersey to Jersey Island anyway here's what I want to talk about in regards to Tesla otherwise I'm sure you've probably heard there was some recent bad news about Elon musk's spaceship launch which I'm sure you've heard about and that caused a lot of negativity and pessimism obviously as I'm sure you're probably aware but regarding Tesla stock itself I think this chart is absolutely fascinating first of all just give you some context you may be aware that last year in late December of last year when Tesla stock was collapsing it was literally in free fall and again it was crashing really hard I remember at the time a lot of people on social media were very pessimistic and scared about Tesla and they said Tesla would never recover it would never bounce back and of course I took the exact opposite view as you may remember I said a Tesla is approaching a major turning point a likely bottom very soon as it was reaching the 110 nearly 100 region there and I said I was looking for a bounce a big bounce on Tesla here's a clip notice the levels we're coming to we're coming to the 38.2 percent that's the orange level in my chart 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement as I'm sure you know these numbers these levels happen to have a special significance in nature this entire range is what I'm looking at with great interest okay for a potential C wave projection so I'm looking basically what I'm saying here is as the price of Tesla is dropping here I think this is the level that's going to be very important for Tesla and I think it's quite probable we may see some kind of a we may see a potential reversion to the mean and bounce from some of these levels from one of these levels again it's not I'm not saying it's a certainty it could go lower than this it's always possible as we know markets are unpredictable and again uncertain but I think given the probabilities I would not be surprised to see some kind of a reversion to the mean or a bounce from one of these levels but I think given how Tesla has been dropping and given the waterfall decline nature of it uh I do think we are getting very close to potential capitulation or did some kind of a major inflection point or reversal in the price of Tesla soon in the coming days or weeks especially as we're getting closely support levels there all right guys and of course when Tesla bounced and rallied hard I said the next resistance on Tesla was going to be between 174 to about the 200 205 region and I said that would be a critical resistance on Tesla and we could see another pullback or drop from that level in fact here's a clip but the next level of resistance you can see the red line is the 61.8 golden ratio retracement there there it is that's about 204 and that's the 61.8 retracement from these highs from the highs of September to the lows of January 2023.
okay so in other words that gives us the golden ratio 61. I think it's the logarithmic retracement by the way at that level 204. so we have a merging of at least two levels meeting us there I like when these levels merge 204 205 so in other words I'm looking first Target my first projection is for the first likely resistance is about this region 174 to 182 and let's say we get a pullback and if we break out again break out higher again then I think that's that would be our next major uh resistance 204 205.
okay so those are the levels that I think could get tested uh in the coming in the coming weeks I should say though I think a pullback or retracement is coming so I'm not saying the price of Tesla is just going to keep going up and up and up without a retracement or some kind of pullback I think pullbacks are quite probable now of course Tesla did go slightly above those levels that I mentioned in the video but in any case Tesla has managed to now hit those resistance levels and pull back in a nice corrective structure since we hit those resistance levels near the 200th region there so what I'm seeing on the chartered Tesla at the moment is in my view a nice ABC corrective structure now this is why Elliott wave theory can be very helpful because what we can see right now is after we hit the February highs on Tesla it seems the stock has now put in an a wave down b-wave bounce a b wave rally and a c wave decline in other words an ABC correction ABC corrective structure and that means Tesla has likely bottomed as we said it did back in December of last year but in my view the structure I'm seeing on the charter Tesla this ABC corrective structure further increases the probability that a bottom is in for Tesla I think as long as we stay above I think as long as Tesla stays above 120 I think it's quite likely that Tesla not only has bottomed but we could see further upside more upside in the next several weeks and months so I think Tesla at the moment is forming what appears to be a c wave the c-wave of this ABC corrective structure and I think once Tesla stock gets above the 180 or 185 region on the chart then the odds increase that this correction has ended it's completed and we could store the next major rally above the 210 220 region and I think perhaps by the end of this year in the next several months we could see something along the lines of 225 275 on Tesla likely by the end of this year I think once we get that nice bounce and rally above the 180 185 to confirm that this correction has ended and completed and in any case my higher probability is that Tesla has bottomed and as long as we stay above 120 I think this ABC structure is likely to complete and end in the next several weeks and months and then start the next major rally to much higher levels again as I mentioned towards 250 and potentially 275 by the end of this year alright guys hope this video has helped thank you very much indeed bye for now thank you
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