저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
요약 보기
OpenAI가 Broadcom과 개발한 첫 커스텀 칩(Jalapeno)이 발표되었다. 칩은 초기 테스트에서 최신 세대 칩보다 와트당 성능이 좋다고 알려졌다. 화자는 Nvidia 경쟁 심화를 수년 전부터 예상했고 이번 발표에 놀라지 않았으며, Nvidia 주식도 여전히 보유·낙관한다고 밝혔다. Broadcom 공정가치는 $496, 현재가 $381로 저평가로 보고 최근 편입했으며, Nvidia 보유자의 리스크 분산 수단으로 Broadcom 추가를 권했다. Nvidia 우려 신호로는 리더십 상실과 주문 감소를 꼽았다.
다듬은 글
We have great news for investors in Broadcom and Nvidia stock, as OpenAI announced its first custom chip developed with Broadcom. I'm going to analyze the details of this announcement and what it may mean for both Broadcom and Nvidia stock investors. I want to thank Ml and see the 10 best stocks to buy.
Before going into the details of the announcement, I'd like to share that I own stock in Broadcom and Nvidia. And it is for this particular reason that I felt Broadcom and Nvidia would likely be the biggest winners in building these AI data centers. And I chose these two instead of having companies like AMD and Intel, which I felt and have felt were overvalued here in 2026.
Now, I had been recommending and looking to add AMD and Intel stocks last year, early last year, and in 2024, when valuations were more attractive. But here, in 2026, I felt that the valuations and potential were much more attractive for Nvidia and Broadcom. Therefore, this announcement is about a custom chip developed with Broadcom that they call Jalapeno.
And the chip, according to the company, offers better performance per watt than current latest generation chips in initial tests. This is clearly negative for the market leader, Nvidia. And I've been talking about how companies like OpenAI, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms will be looking for other options instead of Nvidia.
And I've been talking about this for several years, even before there were popular alternative options compared to what Nvidia offers in terms of GPU acceleration. Now you have formidable competition from Broadcom and chips they create themselves with partners like OpenAI and Alphabet. And then you also have AMD, which is presenting formidable alternatives to what you can get from Nvidia.
So I started talking about this in 2023, when Nvidia's sales were booming and their profit margins were booming. I said it's inevitable that Nvidia will face increasing competition in this category. And I highlighted the reasons for that. Whenever you have a booming business with higher profit margins , competition will enter the sector.
Furthermore, the companies you sell to will give competitors a better chance because they don't want you to dominate the sector so aggressively that they have negative or little bargaining power . So you can basically charge them whatever you want, because they have no other option if you're asking for extremely expensive prices.
And these are the reasons I highlighted for why the competition will intensify, and I'm seeing it unfolding as I expected it to. Companies like OpenAI are providing opportunities and investing in ways to alleviate their dependence on Nvidia chips, and we are seeing this developing. Therefore, this should not surprise Nvidia investors.
I am an Nvidia investor myself and I expected this to happen. This event does not surprise me . This event does not worry me . So, when will I worry about these kinds of events where Nvidia customers choose other options instead of Nvidia? I'll start to worry about this when I begin to notice that Nvidia is falling behind in terms of leadership in the chips they offer.
If Nvidia stops innovating and ceases to be the best in its class and, possibly, to be at least one step ahead of the competition, and then I start to see Nvidia orders decrease, then I will start to worry. But for now, there is so much demand for these GPUs, these accelerated computing chips , that companies like OpenAI are partnering with Broadcom and others to buy them in addition to what they buy from Nvidia, because Nvidia still doesn't have all the products it's creating available.
However, I don't know if these companies would continue to seek partnerships and create their own proprietary chips, or if they would do so in such a widespread manner, if Nvidia were able to supply the market with what it needs, if it were not in a position of supply shortage. Well, many of these proprietary chips are being built for inference , right?
When you think about artificial intelligence, there are two big categories in the computing needs of artificial intelligence. One is for training large language models, and the other is for inferences when people use large language models. That's why most of these patented chips that are coming out are for inference, and this is the case here.
They are for inferences with their own AI models, as well as with those of the entire industry. Therefore, inference is where these companies generate revenue. That's why much more emphasis is being placed on this category because these large language models, such as companies like OpenAI and Anthropic, are losing a lot of money in the bottom line.
They are seeking to make these businesses more sustainable, and opting for the most affordable option for inference purposes only could help them become more sustainable as they prepare for their initial public offerings . As I mentioned, this custom chip is part of a broader industry trend among AI companies and cloud hyperscalers seeking alternatives to the powerful processors from market leader Nvidia.
And, of course, this is because Nvidia is selling all of its products and generating gross profit margins close to 75%. Nvidia's revenue growth has been over 50% for several consecutive quarters and several consecutive years. Therefore, these companies are looking to offer other options and update them so that users can have choices outside of Nvidia.
They still want Nvidia chips as a priority. That's their first choice, but they also want to have other options. They don't want Nvidia to boast about its market dominance. This is, in part, the reason why I have been optimistic about Broadcom's stock, in addition to Nvidia's. I remain optimistic about Nvidia's stock.
I still think Nvidia is one of the 10 or 12 best stocks to buy right now, but I also have a very bullish stance on Broadcom. I recently added Broadcom shares to my portfolio and I still think they are undervalued and that announcements like these will continue over the next few quarters in my estimated assessment of what is happening in the market.
So I've calculated that Broadcom's intrinsic or fair value is $496 and the current market price is $381. Therefore, it still looks like a good value, and announcements like these further reinforce my optimism and my argument for Broadcom as an excellent stock to add to your portfolio, especially if you already have Nvidia shares in your portfolio.
Broadcom offers a good balance in that respect because if Nvidia loses out , one of the companies that could lose out is Broadcom, which in partnership with those large hyperscalers could accelerate these developments. And this poses a risk to investors in Nvidia shares. Therefore, adding Broadcom shares to a portfolio that already includes Nvidia alleviates one of the risks to Nvidia shares.
It doesn't alleviate all risks, but it does alleviate one of the risks of owning Nvidia stock. Therefore, it adds some diversification benefits in addition to being an undervalued stock to add to your portfolio.
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