저자: JeremySiegel · 외국인
요약 보기
Siegel은 시장이 1999~2000년보다 저평가 상태라며 나스닥 선행 PER 21.5배(1999년 100배 대비)를 근거로 든다. 통화량 9% 증가와 AI 혁명을 강조하고, 이란 이슈와 AI 과열 우려가 단기 시장을 짓누르지만 강세장 초기라고 본다. 이후 영상은 ADBE(매출 13% 성장, 선행 PER 약 10배), NOW(구독 성장 24.5%, 선행 PER 약 19.7배), ZS(매출 25% 성장, PEG 약 1.0)를 저평가 매수 기회로 제시한다.
다듬은 글
1999 and 2000 were significantly more expensive than today. I think there are three things that are troubling the market . And first, of course, the events in Iran. And by the way, if we get a pause and a discovery like that, I expect the S&P to rise 10%. I think there's definitely a pause in what's happening with AI .
I mean, at 5 in the morning, Dan Ai said it was an arms race, and I asked, is an arms race always the best thing? But this is a true revolution of fundamental value. You know, the bull market is still in its early stages. But I think these concerns are holding the market back for now. Everywhere you look, Wall Street doomsayers declare that we are trapped in the most expensive market in history.
The recent wave of market panic makes this claim plausible at first glance, but Wharton finance legend Jeremy Siegel calls it utterly absurd. The actual data proves this. At the peak of the dot-com bubble in 1999, the NASDAQ soared to a staggering price-to- earnings ratio of 100 times, and the tech sector to 80 times.
Today, the NASDAQ forward PE ratio is a much more reasonable 21.5 times. With the money supply growing at 9% per year and geopolitical news weighing on sentiment, Siegel argues that investor anxiety is not a reason to panic. This is an ideal buying opportunity. Siegel's basic logic is based on a critical market transition.
As Wall Street's fear of infrastructure capital spending subsides, real profit growth is shifting to enterprise software products that leverage cheaper computing power to boost operating margins. While retail investors chased overheated trends, three long- depressed tech giants were under selling pressure for months.
But this "bearish" thesis has just fundamentally collapsed. Accelerating corporate contracts, expensive AI licensing deals, and structural margin expansion have quietly transformed these former outsiders into cash flow leaders. All three have officially bottomed out, widened their margins, and are preparing for a large-scale structural breakout .
Here is a detailed breakdown of the data. Our analysis is led by digital media titan Adobe Inc., ticker ADBE—a company that the market has wrongly written off as a victim of generative AI, which is creating one of the most exciting opportunities in tech today. Although the selling of stocks due to certain narratives has pressured them for months, the real financial picture looks very different.
In the second quarter, revenue grew 13% year- over-year to a record $5.62 billion, driven by 14% subscription growth and total annual recurring revenue of $27.1 billion. The main thesis here is quite simple. Artificial intelligence is not destroying Adobe's competitive advantage. He expands it. Despite fears that generative tools will replace creative software, the vast amount of digital content generated by AI is driving unprecedented demand for professional platforms to edit, manage, distribute, and monetize this content at scale.
Adobe’s AI- powered offerings already generate over $500 million in annual recurring revenue, triple the amount from last year, and the Firefly ecosystem has seen a 50 percent sequential revenue jump. Additionally, web traffic searching for the company's built-in digital capabilities grew 35% year-over- year, increasing the number of monthly active users to over 850 million.
Management is purposefully directing millions of new users into a highly efficient premium segment funnel, creating a massive mechanism for monetizing regular income as users transition to paid tariffs and credit packages. Financially, Adobe remains a true “ cash machine,” generating over $2 billion in operating cash flow per quarter and repurchasing 8.5 million shares to continuously reduce its number.
Management raised its annual revenue forecast to $26.6 billion along with a EPS forecast of around $24.40. However, despite these fundamental positive factors, ADBE shares trade 10.2, which is a significant discount to historical averages for technology companies. As corporate AI budgets shift from basic infrastructure to highly cost-effective integration of enterprise workflows, this creative giant is poised for a massive market repricing when Wall Street catches up with the real numbers.
Seamlessly transition from creative workflows to enterprise automation. Our second opportunity is ServiceNow (ticker symbol NOW). It's a powerful software company that was previously held back by concerns about disrupting its location-based pricing model, but is now showing explosive operating results thanks to autonomous AI execution.
While Wall Street was busy considering worst-case scenarios, ServiceNow beat expectations for the second quarter, generating $3.99 billion in total revenue and accelerating subscription growth to 24.5% year-over-year , beating its own forecast by $60 million. The real driver of this turnaround is not just incremental growth.
This is the massive adoption by corporations of a suite of agent-based AI tools, including those like Now Assist and the recently launched consolidated enterprise engine Auto. Over the past 9 months, the use of agent solutions has increased 9 times, while the number of AI-related orders increased by 40% in the second quarter alone.
The annual value of AI-related contracts has already reached approximately $1 billion, representing almost 7% of the total annual subscription forecast. Additionally, the company's work commitments, a key indicator of total contracted future revenue, rose 21% year- over-year to a staggering $29 billion, prompting management to raise its full-year subscription revenue forecast to $15.78 billion.
This operational efficiency directly impacts net income, generating $634 million in quarterly free cash flow, up 19% year-over-year, and supporting an exceptionally strong full-year free cash flow margin of 35%. While competitors struggle with slowing underlying organic growth, ServiceNow maintains an organic growth profile approaching 19%, well ahead of legacy competitors like Salesforce.
However, despite these strong performance and the highest level of corporate client retention, NOW's valuation has declined significantly to around 19.7 times forward earnings, leaving the stock trading at a significant 52 % discount to its 3- year average multiple. As enterprise buyers rapidly move from testing simple chatbots to implementing complex automated cross-departmental AI agents, ServiceNow is uniquely positioned to capture significant market share and deliver significant margin expansion.
Building directly on this surge in autonomous enterprise AI agents, our third stock is zero-trust security pioneer Zscaler , ticker ZS, a titan that has pulled back from near-term sales hurdles, creating an extraordinary window for entry just as AI deployments are strengthening its core value proposition.
While macroeconomic weakness and sales leadership changes temporarily dampened sentiment, Zscaler's business engine delivered a stellar third quarter, generating $850 million in revenue, up 25% year-over-year, and comfortably beating Wall Street's estimates. The structurally optimistic forecast for Zscaler is based on a fundamental reality that the market is severely underestimating.
Cybersecurity is perhaps the most AI-resistant business model in all of enterprise software. As autonomous AI agents proliferate across corporate networks, operating at incredible speeds with minimal human oversight, the risk surface grows exponentially . Enterprises cannot simply create an internal security system or abandon a zero- trust architecture.
They must protect each autonomous agent's access to data and applications. This tailwind boosted Zscaler's non- GAAP operating margin by 100 basis points in the quarter, supported by a strong balance sheet, with $3.5 billion in cash versus just $1.7 billion in debt. While the conservative short-term growth forecast of 17% for FY27 reflects a temporary sales capex rather than a decline in market demand, the structural potential points directly to long-term operating leverage and a path to 30% net margin.
With operating leverage set to deliver GAAP profitability in the coming quarters, Zscaler's valuation has fallen to an extremely attractive price-to- earnings growth multiple of around 1.0 relative to its confident growth trajectory. As Wall Street recognizes that Agent AI accelerates threat vectors rather than disrupts security regimes, Zscaler is poised for significant margin expansion and powerful market repricing.
Jeremy Segall's concept provides a clear understanding. Fear creates false pricing, and that creates wealth for generations . As infrastructure capital expenditures stabilize, Adobe, Service Now, and Zscaler will be the same enterprise AI adopters that will deliver rapid cash flow and margin growth.
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