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Hi everyone, in the current situation, what should we do if the market rises and what should we do if it falls? If Rakesh Jhunjanwala were among us in 2026, let's see in this video what he would have done in his own words. But first, I think I need to make one thing very clear to you . This video is not for those who are retiring from investing .
For those who are just starting their investment journey and want to be more specific, they may have opened a Demat account in the last five to six years and are confused about what to do now . But before starting this video, tell us in which year you entered the stock market, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, or 2024 or later, in the comments section below.
This answer is very important. I'll tell you why in the middle of this video. So first, before we know what to do, let's see what the market situation is now and what will happen. If we observe the returns in the market index in the last one year, the Nifty 50 has been falling continuously since the last one year.
About 12.8% recorded a sharp fall. But mid-cap stocks did not fall as much. Where are small- cap stocks rising? And in fact, in August and September, the small cap index also recorded an all-time high. And recently, the people of Cuttack gave a report. The crowd behavior of the stock market has been different in the last six months .
It is very clear that large-cap companies are in a downtrend, while small- cap companies are in an uptrend . Even though the Indian market is the same, if small caps and mid caps are growing in it, only the Nifty will take the lead. Why are there two types of money flow like this? What are the reasons behind this?
FIIs, or Foreign Institutional Investors, are continuously selling Nifty 50 stocks, which are large companies . This is causing a large percentage of profit booking by large-cap companies, causing the overall market to fall . But on the other hand, all the small investors who do SIPs are also investing a large percentage of their money in mid-cap mutual funds and small-cap mutual funds, so these small-cap stocks are growing rapidly due to the large inflow .
But do you know where we are at because of this? According to the current market situation, the Nifty 50 has fallen by 12% and there has been a correction in big companies . Whereas mid-cap and small-cap stocks have grown very strongly, we need to be very careful about them now . But there are still uncertainties, meaning war has not yet set in, crude oil continues to rise, and the US elections are not yet complete.
So this uncertainty will remain like this for a few more months. So honestly, if you ask me now whether the market will rise or fall, I don't know where it will go. In fact, no one can say. Not only me, but even TV experts can't say. However, if we study the past 100 years of market history, we can guarantee one thing .
Before you can figure that out, you need to know who you really are and what stage you are at in the market . So first, let's see who you are and what stage you are at. If we look at the number of demat accounts in India, we can see that while there were only about 4.1 crore demat accounts in 2020, by 2026, 23.8 crore demat accounts had been opened.
This means that 83% of Demat accounts in the Indian market were opened after 2020. So logically, three out of every four investors in the current Indian stock market entered the market only after 2020. That's why you are definitely a stock market beginner investor. However, if we observe the analysis provided by SEBI, which studies all investors in the stock market, seven out of every 10 stock market traders are losing money intraday.
And yet, nearly 76% of these losers are under 30 years old. And yet, 93% of those who only do FNO continue to lose. And do you know another shocking number? Before 2019, intraday traders under 30 years of age accounted for only 18% of the market, but by 2023, intraday traders under 30 years of age had increased to almost 48%.
This is the very, very worst number. This means that people under the age of 30 are 50% more likely to try intraday trading. But in reality, they are losing 90% of their money . That's why it's best to avoid either intraday trading or FNO trading as much as possible. Okay, now for investors, if you started investing in 2020 or 2021 or in the last two to three years, you have already seen the golden years in the stock market.
The Nifty has increased three times from March 2020 to 2024 alone. And specifically, small caps have increased by 4x to 10x. So what all these new investors think is that they will get 30-40% returns every year in the market . But the rally we saw from 2021 to 2024 was a very, very rare rally. In fact, the common behavior of the stock market is that it always falls sideways, is boring, and is very normal .
To help you understand this, I am observing 10 years of data from 2010 to 2019 . In these 10 years, only three years have the market grown very fast. The data we are going to see here is very important, so listen carefully. So, if we observe the returns from 2010 to 2019, the market saw returns of 27%, 31%, and 28% in 2012, 2014, and 2017 alone .
All of the remaining years are either negative or almost flat. In 2010, there were only 17.9% returns. Overall, the Nifty has increased 2.3 times in these 10 years . But in fact, in just three of those years, 2012, 2014, and 2017, it increased by 2.16 times. This means that if we observe the remaining seven years, the market has only grown by 8%.
However, if there is an investor who has invested in these 10 years, they have received maximum returns in just three years. So, you already know this: Golden years come only after fear or boredom hits the market. For example, in 2011 the market fell by 25%. Everyone was scared, but the next year it increased by 28% .
After the market grew so much in 2012, everyone showed interest in the market and entered in 2013. However, the market was very flat and many people got bored and exited after six months or a year. But the next year, 2014, it increased by 31%. Those investors who entered the market expecting another rally, only to find that 2015 and 2016 were flat and then got bored and left, while the market rose 29% in 2017.
That is, when the market is flat and boring, if they go out of the market, they will miss almost all the profit they should have received. In general, investment is like growing a mango tree. If we want to earn money from a mango tree, will we get income from it every month? Does that mango tree give us fruits every month?
Does it give us fruits only when the season comes? But what happens if you cut down a tree before the season arrives, saying it won't bear any fruit ? Obviously, we won't have any nuts when that season comes. There are also seasons in investing. Otherwise, that season only comes once every two or three years.
We will only become good investors if we wait patiently until it arrives. So what do you think based on the data you've seen now? If you already knew these things, or if they seem new to you, please comment below. Next, let's see how long it took for the legends, who have now earned hundreds of crores and thousands of crores in the market, to earn that much money in the market .
So let's see specifically what the length of their journey is. Rakesh Jhunjhunwala started his investment journey in 1985, but it took him 37 years to earn nearly 40,000 crores. Next Vijaya Kedia started trading when he was 19 years old . At first, it wasn't successful. His real journey began only after struggling for about 10 to 12 years .
Later, when Dolly Kanna and Rajiv Kanna also started their trading journey in 1996, they too did not earn much returns for the first 10 years . Extraordinary returns came after 10 years. Next, Porinju Veliyath also started as a floor level trader in 1990, but started his own fund only 12 years later.
And next, when Ashish Kacholia entered the market in 1990, it took him a few decades of experience to grow. But now, if you are a beginner investor, if you do your calculations, whether you come in 2020 or later, the maximum number of years of journey you have had so far is just a six-year journey .
That means you're still only in the first chapter. You don't need to feel bad about saying that magic hasn't happened in these five to six years . The market will definitely deliver extraordinary returns in the future. But those returns are only given once every two to three years . That is why, in the current market situation, we hear from Rakesh Jhunjun Wala what to do if the market rises and what to do if it falls .
Let's try to understand what he would have done if he were in 2026 through his statements . So, if you observe one of the statements made by the first Rakejan Wala, never try to time the market by saying that the market will fall now and then rise. If you ever think that the market has gone up, the market has gone up just fine.
If you think that the market has gone down, the market has gone down because it should have gone down. When should you think the market will move in the right direction? And next, you should understand that it is very, very common for a company to incur losses after you buy it. Rakesh Jhunjun and his colleagues often say that losses are very common in an investor's journey and that one should be ready to accept them as a part of life.
Imagine if there was a short-term move in the market next time, it would mean that the market was growing. Suddenly, a sharp correction comes. Many stock market beginners think that they will exit these sharp market corrections either with no profit, no loss or with a loss and not want to be in the stock market anymore.
Or they wait and say they will buy when it falls even further, but the market quickly recovers from there and continues to grow. That is why we should be confident that any correction in a bull market will be temporary and that the recovery will be short-lived . Because the Indian stock market is structural and irreversible, India's bull market depends on strong foundations.
That's why even if the market falls, it should be considered temporary. And finally, what Rakesh Janwala is saying is that he has never actually traded or invested anywhere other than the equity markets . Whether it was the 2000 recession, the 2008 recession, 2012, or 2020, they were completely invested in the stock market .
However, not only Rocket Junnan, but even Vijay Kedia, have always invested 100% of their money in the stock market in the last 30 years . That's why we should learn from such legends: Invest like a bull, meaning we should keep investing with the hope that the market will always rise. Otherwise, there would only be a beer market while we waited .
It won't grow for another two or three years . Even so, I should say that I will invest in the stock market and hold my shares . And when the right time comes, we must observe the stocks with an eagle eye and pick the correct stocks. So, do you understand Rakesh Jhunjhunwala's answer in the current market situation?
If you look at his life, whether the market is falling or rising at the current stage, he is not the kind of person who would get scared and walk out of the stock market. Even though FIS continues to sell, they still invest in the market with strong faith in India. The reason I say this so strongly is based on his recorded words.
So now you already know the answer to what we should do whether the market rises or falls. If the market goes up, we should invest in the stock market. That's why you should invest even if the market falls. Only three out of every 10 years are golden years . We don't know when they will arrive . If not, it's important to be in the market for the next time.
And remember one thing: every investor is like a farmer. A farmer doesn't always think that he will harvest his crop depending on when the rain comes . Farmers always plant seeds in every season . Only in certain seasons does a very good crop grow. The farmer actually doesn't know when that very good crop will be harvested .
But trusting in nature, he continues to work on the farm in every season . Therefore, we, as investors, should always invest in the stock market with three conditions. The first condition is to buy only good stocks whenever possible. It's not just a random stock that someone mentioned in the news, on Telegram, or because it seems like a good company.
You should study the business thoroughly and only invest in it if you believe that the business will continue to grow, even if it's for another 10, 15, or 20 years. And the stock market is boring . Sometimes it takes two to three years, so you should always invest only long-term money in it. This means you should set aside money for your emergency fund .
If you have any wedding expenses, house purchase expenses, or college fees in the next three to five years, don't put them in the stock market. It may be better to invest in FDs or bonds. And as the market rises and falls regularly, we should push a certain amount into the stock market every month when we get our salary .
As a result, the prices of the good stocks we buy tend to average out. So now tell me in the comments, do you have the courage to patiently invest in the stock market for 20 years ? If you think you have, tell us in the comments section below . Let's remember this comment after 20 years . And after watching this video, a small question may arise as to how to select a good stock.
I've already put this on the Fundamental Analysis Playlist in the last three YouTube videos, about value traps, what stocks we should buy during the crude oil crisis, and how to analyze quarterly results with AI in five minutes. I will provide the link to it in the comments section below. By watching these videos, you will understand how to find good stocks and eliminate bad stocks in the current situation .
And if you want to learn it at an even more advanced level, I teach an AI-based step-by-step analysis called The Multi-Bagger Formula in my course . With 40 plus hours of recorded content, it covers you from complete basics to advanced levels . There will also be two days of live classes every month.
The link to it is also in the description and comments section below. So finally, after watching this video, what you should understand is that whether it is Rakesh Jhunjanwala, Vijay KD or Dolly Kanna, they all failed in the first round. And their great journey, like everyone else's, began only 10 years later .
But these big investors do n't just have intelligence; they have been in the market for a long time. They keep investing even when the market rises and they keep investing even when it falls. So even now, we still have a lot of time ahead of us. If we put it in the market and wait, we will get very good returns.
Apart from that, the market will continue to take it in the future. If I exit saying I'll buy it when it falls, the market may fall in the future, but no matter how much it falls, we will still miss the next rally by waiting for it to fall. This happened to me once in 2020 . That's why I don't think I should repeat this mistake again .
At the same time, I don't think you should do it either. I hope this video has conveyed the information I wanted to convey to you . If you like this video, don't forget to like, share and subscribe to Telugu Stock Channel.
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