저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
과거 Vijay Kedia·Dolly Khanna 등 대형 투자자 포트폴리오에는 ROE·PER 등 기초 지표상 부실한 종목이 많다고 주장한다. 대형 투자자는 흑자전환(턴어라운드) 트리거, 성장을 위한 음(-)의 현금흐름, 부채비율 추세, 보유 비중 변화를 본다고 설명한다. 실습으로 AIM Elecon(Enco Elecon) 사례를 들어 AI로 분석하는 절차를 보여준다. 다만 대형 투자자 종목이 모두 성공하지는 않으며 맹목적 추종은 위험하다고 강조하고, 매수·매도 추천은 하지 않는다고 명시한다.
다듬은 글
Hi everyone, how long have you been learning only the basics of the stock market? ROE, Price to Earnings, Debt to Equity, all these points are just stock market basics. No matter how many videos you watch, you will see in many videos that you should select stocks only if they have a price-to-earnings ratio greater than 15%, a price-to-earnings ratio greater than 20%, a debt-to- equity ratio less than 30, and so on .
But I talked about the secrets of big investors in my last video . If we observe the stocks in the portfolios of people like Vijay Kedia's portfolio, Dolly Kanna, and Porinjo Velian, most of the stocks have poor ROE, poor ROCE, and negative price-to-earnings ratios . Debt to equity will be greater than one.
And do big investors like this know the basics of the stock market? All of them have more than 30 years of history in the stock market. They started with a few thousand lakh rupees and earned hundreds of thousands of crores of rupees. If we look at the stocks in their portfolios today, most of the basics we learned don't apply .
That's why you should definitely update yourself from these basics . So in today's video, let's learn the four important points to find out what points the real big investors look for . The first point is the trigger. We try to find the trigger point that will determine what a company's future will be like, not its past, and how the future will perform better than the past .
Next, in the second point, why do big investors buy even if the company is in losses or has negative cash flows? In the third point, why do big investors invest in such stocks even if the debt to equity ratio is more than one? And finally, how do we know whether a big investor is buying a company or planning to sell it completely?
Let's discuss these four points in detail. Additionally, I will also provide an AI prompt for each point to help you easily identify these four points . Our first and most important point is the trigger. Sometimes, as we observe, big investors also buy companies that are at a loss. In fact, they are turning losses into profits, a turnaround story.
However, if we observe such turnaround stories, no past number in the background is good. All such ratios like ROE, ROE, Price to Earnings are definitely bad . So the question here is, what are big investors looking for in such turnaround companies? The simple answer to that is that they definitely don't see past numbers.
They are observing a change differently . That change is our trigger. Some trigger is going to come into play to convert that business from losses to profits . If a company has new management, are they able to do something specific and special that the old management couldn't do, then that becomes a trigger.
Or a company finds a new trigger when it sets up a new plant, launches new products, designs a new product through R&D, or explores new markets . And the company finds a trigger that is clearing its debt quickly as its profits increase . Or if there are government PLI schemes coming up in a sector or there is a business push, that can also trigger a company .
Let's look at a small example of how we can find out such triggers through AI . For this, when I went to the superstars on trendline.com, I observed that he recently bought shares of a company called Aim Elecon in Vijay Kedia's portfolio . So, in this AIMO Elecon, its weighting has been increasing by up to 1.5% in the recent quarter alone .
So if you want to analyze this company, go to and open this Enco Elecon share . Once it opens like this, if we want to download all the data on this page, it will say Export to Excel. If we click on this, an Excel file will be downloaded. So once we have downloaded the Excel file we need, we can download this company's annual reports, conference calls, and credit report ratings, if any .
We are for this. If we click on the documents shown above, we will see the annual reports at the end of this page. We need to download these annual reports and recent calls . So I open each year's annual report and download them. Once I have downloaded all the files I need, I will use whatever AI platform I regularly use, be it Gemini, ChatGP, or Cloud.
In that platform, we will first import the annual reports and the Excel file downloaded from the screen . And also, in this prompt that I'm giving you, we're asking AI to explain how to identify a future trigger and if we know the future trigger in that particular company, or if we do know it . So I'm dragging this company's Excel sheets and also the annual reports .
So once these are uploaded to us, we simply need to click on the search option . So what Gemini AI told me here is that this particular company has a primary future trigger. That's what strategic product electrification and portfolio expansion is all about. So I won't explain too much about this point.
I just think I need to teach you the process. We are not giving you any tips to buy this share or sell this share . You should read and understand this and logically think about how well the trigger in that company can be worked out . But it's not just about thinking logically, that trigger point has to have an impact on you.
You need to create an interest in that company . If after reading those points you are not excited and do not believe that this company will grow because of these points, then you can avoid those stocks . We should only invest in such stocks on the day that you fully understand the business and are confident that you should invest in this company .
The second important point is a little tricky for us. If you ever observe the portfolios of big investors, most of the stocks have negative cash flows . However, when we learn at a basic level, we learn that cash flows must be positive. But 95% of people don't understand why these big investors are buying even though it's negative.
Listen carefully as I tell you the secret behind this. There are also two types of reasons for negative cash flows . The first reason is survival. When a company is not doing business properly, sales are declining, and even if they sell products, receivables are not paid on time, and inventories are increasing, then cash is going out of the company but not coming in.
In a situation like this, a company struggles for survival . That business may exist tomorrow or it may disappear. The second reason is that negative cash flows can also be for the growth of a company . This means that a company is now in growth. It expects more business in the future than it did in the past.
That's why it puts in new capital, constructs new plans, and buys new equipment. This will result in higher costs. Even in this case, cash will flow out of the company . However, if the company makes more sales tomorrow, even if it has negative cash flow today, there will be many more opportunities to generate positive cash flow in the future.
So these big investors could be Vijay Kedia, Rakesh Jhunjanwal , Dolly Kanna, all of them obviously want to increase their profits if the company gets more sales tomorrow . Even today, even if there is negative cash flow, they continue to analyze companies in this way, thinking that it is justifiable .
The free cash flow for Aiko Elicon, which I showed you in the previous point, is also negative. So, to find out why that free cash is negative, I wrote an AI script to identify the survival or growth problem. So when we apply for the EAI form, we also need to upload all the annual reports of the screener here.
Once uploaded, just one click here is enough. You can also use this program on any Gemini Chat GPT cloud, even on Notebook LM. Otherwise, it's a bit of a tough prompt, so it helps a lot more in the paid version than in the free version. When you read the output here, you can easily understand whether the company's cash flows are negative for growth or negative for survival .
So here is the prompt I gave to Echo Elecon, which I actually used in the free version. I got an answer that this negative free cash flow here is growth related. But anyway, try to read the complete information here, not just the final word. So what do they simply observe? If there is negative cash flow today, is it for growth or survival?
If you understand this one point correctly, your thinking process will change completely. The next third point is a very simple point but also a very effective point. Generally, we look at debt to equity. This is a basic level, and we tend to think that if the debt to equity ratio is greater than one, we should avoid it .
But big investors, even if a company has debt, will look at the direction in which that debt is going . Does that mean that debt to equity will increase or decrease? If over the years, even if the debt to equity ratio is 3-4, but the direction is seen to be decreasing like this, 2-1.7-1.5, then obviously they think that they are good companies .
Once you think logically, a company's debt to equity ratio was zero three years back, last year it was 0.5, now it is 0.75 . So here the debt to equity ratio is increasing. You might think that investing in this company is safe if you have a debt-to-equity ratio less than one, which you learned at the basic level, but big investors don't think like this.
Debt to equity is increasing here. So they try to avoid this company. Where is the debt to equity ratio of a company three years back? Last year was two. Now it is 1.5. According to our general basic knowledge, we avoid this, but big investors pick such stocks . Next, I have given a prompt here to find out the dead direction of this company.
For this too, it is enough to upload the Excel file you downloaded on screener.in. So if we run this prom along with the original file, I can understand the trend of debt here. Actually, when I analyzed this company, it didn't have much debt. She gave me an analysis, saying that even though it happens occasionally, it's only a minor annoyance .
And the data here shows me that the trend of this debt to equity is both flat and exceptionally strong . Along with that, we can also learn about the interest coverage ratio and its impact on operating profit. In the next fourth point, we look at the portfolios of big investors and find out which stocks they are buying and which stocks they are selling .
It's not enough to know what stocks they are buying . You also need to know whether they are adding to those stocks, holding them, or exiting them . I also showed this point in my last video. When we open the investor portfolio we want in Superstar Portfolios, we can understand that if it is green in the recent quarter, they are making an edit, if it is red, they are selling, and if it is plain white, they are holding constantly.
We don't usually need any AI prompts for this data . It is enough to open the Superstars portfolio on Justendine.com and open the investor portfolio we want . If we want to understand it in a usual and simple way, let's say that big investors are increasing their holdings in that stock, and then their confidence will increase.
If they are just holding the same quantity, it means they may be in a wait-and-watch situation . Also, if they are selling, whatever trust they previously had in that company may have become a matter of doubt for them. So what we need to do now is to look at these four things together. First, is there any trigger in that company?
Second, if the cash flow is negative, is that negative due to survival or growth? Next, will the company's debt decrease or increase? And finally, are big investors just holding the stock or are they still accumulating ? If we get an answer of yes to these four points, then we can consider those stocks to be strong stocks.
In case you are having a little trouble reading this information in English, I am giving you a Telugu mixed English prompt as a bonus. It explains the complete data we received in Telugu . What does this mean to us? How exactly are this company 's profits generated? And who are the customers of this company?
And what are the opportunities for this company to grow now? And what is the single biggest risk this company faces? By running this prompt, you will be able to learn the basic things you need to know about that company. But now I have to tell you a very important point in this video. Even if I don't say this or you don't know, this video won't be of any use to you.
The types of stocks we discussed in this video, such as those with turnarounds or negative cash flows or debt to equity directions, and especially those stocks that are invested by large investors, are very, very risky. I'm not saying this too softly, I'm telling you clearly. But all these big investors we know, like Vijay Kedia, Dolly, and Rakesh Jhunjanwala, are ready to take high risks.
Even if their stocks fall by 50% to 80%, they are committed to holding those stocks for 2 years, 7 years, 10 years . And they have a dedicated research team when it comes to selecting stocks. And they have many contacts. We have more access than that. We don't have this privilege on the stage where you or I are at the moment .
So remember this rule carefully. We shouldn't blindly buy those stocks just because they're being bought by big investors. And the fact that a big investor buys a stock shouldn't be the reason we buy it . If you want to invest in a stock, you need to have a clear understanding of the business of that stock.
You need to understand the pluses and minuses of it. You need to be clear about what triggers will make that company grow. And if it falls, you also need to know what the reasons are. Never buy companies just because big investors bought them without knowing these things. Because if Rakesh Junior buys 30 stocks, only four to five of them will become multi-baggers.
The rest of the stocks will also grow, but at a very, very slow rate . Similarly, not all of Vijay Kedia's portfolio has become multi-baggers. So, never blindly buy stocks just because these big investors bought them . In this video, we've learned so far how we can use AI to understand the stocks they invest in, especially their businesses .
After learning all these things, we should only invest in the business once we fully understand it. I am not suggesting you buy or sell any stock through this video . I am simply teaching you an educational process . What we learned today is the third video in our series. If you watched this video after watching the first and second videos, it would have made a lot of sense .
If you haven't seen it yet, I'll put the links to the first and second videos in the comments section below. And also these AI prompts are in the description section above. If you have any doubts, you can ask in the comments section below. And if you find this video helpful, .
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