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엔비디아 3분기 실적은 매출 59.3억달러(전년比 -16.5%)로 기대를 소폭 상회했으나 4분기 가이던스(약 60억달러)는 시장 기대에 못 미침. 게이밍 매출 급감, 영업이익 6억달러로 급감, 영업현금흐름 약 4억달러로 악화. 주가는 과대평가로 보며 절반 수준(약 111~128달러 부근) 하락 가능성 제시, 단기 반등 모멘텀은 인정하나 추세는 하락.
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Nvidia stock is trading over 16 times forward sales and over 50 times forward earnings that's after even being down over 47 percent over the last year is this stock poised to bounce back is this stock poised to meet those lofty valuation estimates over the next year we'll talk about that and more on today's show time to talk about Nvidia one of the stocks we regularly cover here on our Friday Fang stock a recap show Q3 earnings came in and we're not gonna waste any time we're going to Jump Right In Revenue coming in at 5.93 billion dollars that was the decline year over year of 16.5 but it did beat the Lowered Expectations over at this company by about a hundred and ten million dollars Wall Street estimates for this quarter was closer to 5.8 billion dollars so this 5.93 not too bad now we also got Q4 guidance for NVIDIA as well coming in right about six billion dollars for the upcoming quarter that's plus or minus two percent so they'll come either side of that by about two percent well Wall Street was expecting maybe a little bit higher than that especially if they kind of come underneath that six billion dollar range Wall Street was expecting a number closer to 6.14 billion dollars on those estimates now we got the all-important kind of sector or segment Revenue trends for NVIDIA and look you still had really strong Data Center and they also came out a plus release today that they were going to put tens of thousands of these gpus inside of Microsoft's Azure data center so that should lead to at least some stronger Revenue maybe the margins a little bit lower on that type of thing but data center strong year over year and even sequentially quarter of a quarter we're also seeing growth there now the former number one Revenue segment for NVIDIA was actually these gaming chips is spurred by actually two different things number one actually gaming with the chips playing video games but also by crypto Mining and obviously the crypto sector has just been obliterated over the last year and certainly over the last week there's been a lot of developments there there you're seeing a decline tremendously in the gaming sector but however their newest chips and their newest gpus were just released and so it's actually expected as you roll into kind of a newer product cycle you are going to have some weakness here and you're going to have some flushing of some inventory on top of that you're gonna have Gamers that are keeping track and staying up on all the latest trends they're gonna wait for these new products and kind of see if they meet their needs and so we'll see in subsequent quarters if this gaming sector Revenue starts to come back because look last year it was at 3.4 billion dollars that was actually in Q2 Q3 was 3.2 billion dollars and you've been cut in half down to 1.5 billion dollars even last quarter as Gamers we're still anticipating the new Chips was still two billion dollars worth of Revenue we saw a professional and visualization Revenue kind of fall off the map but you got your automobile Revenue start to tick up but those are rounding errors when you're looking at a company with nearly six billion dollars worth of Revenue so year over year of massive Revenue declines even sequentially quarter over quarter you are also seeing Revenue declines this company is going to have to hit the ball out of the park over the next 12 months in my opinion just to meet these lofty valuations that this company has because we're looking at a company with 400 billion dollar valuation having declining Revenue year over year really for the rest of the year and into next year and you're looking at a company that's going to do 25 26 billion dollars worth of Revenue and when we come over here and look at profits there's not going to be that many of them when it came to gross margins in the most recent quarter they were not bad they were definitely not as good as they were last year they were at 65 percent but again we're we're kind of in a product res shuffle a new season of products if you will and so obviously the margins are going to Trend down as you're trying to flush out the inventory of the previous year's models and if you look sequentially went from 43 point five percent up to 53 we'd expect these gross margins and profitability to start coming back in subsequent quarters when we look into this quarter again you had roughly six billion dollars worth of Revenue 7.1 billion dollars last year higher cost of Revenue on Lower amounts of revenue from 4 2.5 up to about 2.7 that leads to lower gross profit from 4.6 down to 3.2 your research and development ticked up a little bit but not much from 1.4 up to about 1.9 they've done a nice job look this company is well on the machine they haven't blown a ton of it on sales General and administrative expenses those went from 557 up to just 631 so your total operating expenses over the last year grew but rather considerably up from 1.9 billion to about 2.6 billion dollars again that's on Lower revenue and lower margins so that's going to obliterate your income from operations look at last year you had 2.6 billion dollars worth of income from operation patients this year two billion dollars lower to six hundred million dollars that's right folks on a company worth 400 billion dollars you print just 600 million dollars worth of operating income in a quarter that's just not good enough for most investors pull all the way down to net income paints a similar story just 27 cents per diluted share on that ABS side last year nearly four times higher at 97 cents we go over the balance sheet nothing really to worry about okay they've got plenty of cash they do have a lot of inventory but again this is comparing to like the end of a holiday season also it was notoriously kind of short on inventory last year and into 2020 they had just 2.6 billion dollars worth of inventory a little bit higher as you're building in new products as well so we're not too worried about inventory as maybe we were maybe a quarter or two ago with Nvidia they have about 4.5 billion dollars worth of inventory and look if they're expecting sales to be relatively decent for upcoming quarters having this inventory not necessarily on a Bad Thing moving down to the liability side yeah they have about 9.7 billion dollars in long-term debt short-term debt you're looking at about 1.2 but total liabilities on this company just 19 billion dollars they have that in cash receivables and inventory alone so very financially healthy company nothing to really be concerned about there now when we come down here to cash flows we will see yeah things have actually gotten pretty bad over at Nvidia we pulled out a very weak net income number of just 680 million dollars it was 2.5 billion dollars last year if you want to look at a nine month basis you're seeing this trend played through all year this is why the stock is down so much from 6.7 billion dollars worth of net income down to roughly three billion dollars that's again on a nine month view you get to add back in stock based compensation which in the most recent quarter actually exceeded your net income obviously a negative Trend but for cash flows actually benefits your cash flow as you get to add that 745 million dollars back into these and you get down here to net cash provided by operating Nvidia and you'll see it's bad okay from 1.5 billion all the way down to nearly 400 million dollars I'll remind you this is a company that's worth 400 billion dollars and cash flows from operations in the most recent quarter was just 400 million dollars Yeah by most investors account this stock is wildly I'm talking about wildly overvalued and not only that they better hit it out of the park over the next several months just to maintain that lofty valuation any other stumbles and missteps and this stock will likely continue to go down now if you like Risk this is the type of stock for you but when the broader markets are down so much taking risk like this in these types of stocks I don't know if you really need to do that now in the most recent quarter the company bought back about 3.5 billion dollars worth of shares look when your stock is down 46 percent maybe not the worst thing to do that and you see over the last nine months they've bought back about 8 8.8 billion dollars worth of stock and considering we just looked at the balance sheet that really has almost no flaws in it I don't really necessarily have a problem with this we've looked at other companies where the buyback probably should be eliminated almost ASAP here I don't really have a problem with that so that is benefiting you and probably keeping a small floor underneath this stock NOW factoring everything in they've burned through just a small amount of cash over the last quarter but again we're on relatively weak grounds when it comes to these financials now during the regular session stock was down 4.5 percent in the after hours after these results you're kind of bouncing around you're up maybe roughly two percent ironically enough you're basically back to where you were on this stock when they announced their last earnings you're right at about 163 dollars per share and that's really where the stock is right now there is an area of kind of support resistance right where the stock is and in the shorter term the momentum has absolutely been on this stock side as it's up more than than 30 percent just really over the last a month or so you'd expect the dominant Trend though to take over at some point and that dominant Trend obviously with Nvidia and really the broader markets and most stocks is down and down significantly I would actually expect this one to meet some resistance here and then start to pull back you've got some areas of support down here at about 128 if it goes all the way back to the bottom of the channel re-test lows back here at 111 but boy if it re-tests the bottom of the channel that's going to take it to the price Target I have on this one which is roughly half of its market cap that would put you at about a seven to eight times sales on this one and about a 25 Ford earnings Revenue which again is still rather Rich even if you cut this stock in half it still has a rather Rich multiple certainly if you start to compare it to AMD certainly if you compare it to Intel and the other chip sector now at one time I believe Nvidia deserved a premium multiple as they had 30 40 50 Revenue growth year over year and they were coupling that with massive earnings growth as well that is going to not materialize over the next year and it is a question mark for me sitting here as an investor if they're going to be able to re-accelerate that like Wall Street expects sometime in the back half of next year so just for my own personal taste this one's more overvalued than I'm willing to risk in today's market on top of that you have negative Revenue growth negative earnings growth projected over the next couple of quarters I don't necessarily think that's priced into the stock at the current time whether or not it gets down to what I would consider a fair evaluation anytime soon certainly remains to be seen but one thing is for certain this company is going to have to hit the cover off the ball over the next couple of months just to maintain this valuation let alone push it even higher hopefully you guys enjoyed today's video I'll be back again soon later this week make sure you check in on Friday for the Fang soccer recap show we'll talk more about these Nvidia earnings along with the other stocks that we cover good luck with your Investments
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