저자: Kevin · 외국인
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스토크 마켓 폭락 공포 콘텐츠를 분석하며 Shiller PE, 버핏지표, GDP, 기업부채 등 지표들이 왜곡되거나 구시대 데이터(2분기)를 근거로 한다고 지적. 최근 분기 데이터(3분기)와 JP모건 충당금 축소를 근거로 공포는 과장이라고 주장. 특정 자산의 가격 방향 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
break down and deconstruct multiple arguments about the impending stock market crash this video is all about the power of analysis that i hope will be able to make you money and i encourage you to watch to the end so you can see how to apply this yourself in the meantime make sure the links are down below and you can you click a few buttons boom you're in deposit a hundred dollars with weeble and you s well all right sometimes i like to indulge on some good old fear-mongering content from other creators just to see what rationale they have because sometimes i feel like there's actually good logic that we can look at and say this is actually something we ought to pay attention to which is important if we're investors if we've got money in stocks or real estate we've got to pay attention to market signals and analyze those appropriately or in a reasonable way and so what i generally hear though are things like the stock market is going to crash any day now it's around the corner and you should be nervous because you might get obliterated i've been out of the stock market and stocks might fall 95 and at the same time the dollar will become worthless and you should buy gold or bitcoin because there will be no other salvation everything else will be damned okay so yesterday like i came upon another one of these and they they had some you know rationale i thought okay all right let's let's look at some of these things you know first they said look you know here's here's this chart the lines all the way up here and you know what they say what goes up must come down when the shiller p e ratio is way up geez well the last time it was way up the market crashed so that must be what's going to happen now right the only thing after all propping up the market is funny money at the fed then we get another chart that says hey here we are again we're at all-time highs and you know we're going to call this one the buffett indicator and geez the buffett indicator is also at all-time highs which uh what happened last time it spiked to all-time highs well it came crashing down so that's that's not that's not good that makes me a little bit nervous and the buffett indicator after all relates to warren buffett which that's not good because if warren buffett's indicator says the market is highly overvalued and about to crash well then that's probably really bad and if that wasn't clear enough well then there's this whole website dedicated to telling you that a significantly overvalued market has a buffet indicator of 135 or greater and we are at 184.4 holy crap folks the world is going to end but it's not just that the annualized rate of gdp is negative 31.4 percent what but wait there's more forget the buffett indicator of the gdp or the shiller for now what we need is the s p 2 gdp ratio oh my gosh all-time highs as well uh okay what about corporate debt oh my gosh it's a recipe for disaster we're screwed i'm selling everything yeah not so fast in this video i'm going to explain the fatal flaws in these superficial graphs and everything that i just defined and i'm going to take as much of a non-biased approach as possible to this and just provide you the evidence so that you can make your own conclusions i'm not here to tell you that the fed's funny money is not going to cause a crash and i'm not going to tell you that it is going to cause a crash but what about these charts how does all of this what's happening in the economy relate to these charts i mean the charts were right the last time because we could see the line went up then a recession started and then the line went down that that you know means there's a crash gonna that's gonna happen right it must be coming because all of the charts are saying the same thing well to understand if what these charts are signaling to us is actually dangerous we have to first understand how the charts are calculated and understand what they actually represent so first let's go ahead and look at this one this is the schiller p e ratio generally what we get told is oh look oh my gosh from the 1920s to 1930s the thing went up and then it went down during the great depression uh here we go in the uh 2008 crisis oh well we've even got dot-com bubble over here we got dot-com bubble oh my gosh it came out bubble bursts oh everything goes down 2008 recession oh my gosh everything's been going up and then it comes down right and then we kind of had that same thing happen here at a micro but wait a minute why is it going up again oh my gosh this is the the usual thing that we see especially when we start talking about the case shiller pe index and we're seeing the same thing at the other charts okay but what is the shiller pe ratio and why could it possibly fail well here it is the shiller pe ratio basically all it does is it takes the price of the s p 500 which that's easy because you could just type that into google price s p 500 and that is currently 3 483 and 81 cents and then you divide this number by the average annual earnings per share of an index like the s p 500 adjust it for inflation and you go back 10 years so basically in short you take the price of the market and you divide it by earnings over the last 10 years so here's some sample math if we divide the price by a number we get a ratio now this is not the exact formula i'm just showing an example here so that way we can make this conclusion that if earnings go down so if this second number here goes down then the resulting ratio is going to be bigger and a bigger ratio means the market's more expensive okay that makes sense so that's actually kind of a cool formula if earnings go down the market's more expensive right makes sense if prices like the s p goes up and earnings go down then the ratio goes up even faster which means it's basically even more expensive all right well when we hop on over to those recession indicators we see ah crap it looks like we're kind of we're we're going back on that road of going back up and that's not good we don't want to see this tricking this sort of direction upwards right this should make us nervous great kevin what did we learn from that well here's exactly what we learned from that first the case-shiller index has two fatal flaws with it and one now that we know how it works we can actually identify how the problems come out so here are the two problems number one earnings lag this means that when the stock market fell and the s p went down the ratio actually fell which is the point of the ratio it worked as expected the ratio went down when the market started falling but in recessions earnings lag that is you have a recession and earnings at the beginning of the recession still look good because companies are looking at like quarter one data or 2019 data like look our earnings were great but in the recession your earnings start failing as people reign in their spending or in this case they stop traveling they stop going into retail they stop going into hospitality so earnings fall in the recession and automatically when earnings start falling the p e ratio or the shiller p pe ratio goes up so you automatically have a stock market that could be stable or even going down but then you have earnings falling even more which we had during the recession the p e ratio goes sky high and this is actually unfortunate because what it does is it tells us not to invest in recessionary times the p e ratio the shiller p e ratio was still relatively high during the best possible time to invest over probably the last two to three years that is the big crash that we had in march take a look at this let's zoom in here so if we zoom in at the end which this is really kind of tiny here but we know what happened we know that this was the run-up to february and then we sort of had that decline i'm going to put it over here but it's really this line right there right that's the decline we had this right here was march and april that was the best time to invest right but unfortunately even that point even at that point right there the market would have still felt relatively rich and see here's why that's a problem when we were in march in april the schiller p e ratio fell to like 24 which is still historically way higher than we'd expect it to be and so if we solely looked at this chart we would have just not invested this entire recession because prices would have still been too high and we would have left a lot of money on the table but unfortunately that's just one problem the second problem is the schiller p e ratio fails to consider structural changes in a marketplace here's an example of a structural change and let me know what you think if it sounds like we're going through a structural shift if all of a sudden all of the retail industries and office and commercial industry started suffering for some reason and all of a sudden tech started doing really really well gee maybe because there's a pandemic and that's exactly what's happening the shiller pe ratio will fail to account for that because here's what the shiller is going to do the shiller is going to say oh crap high eps earnings per share at retail and commercial real estate you know malls and reits and that are plummeting travel's plummeting banking's not doing hot all of these sectors are going down that's really bad but what we're actually seeing is a shift away from those sectors to tech but the problem with tech is tech continues to reinvest their earnings so you actually don't see those transferred earnings show up in eps earnings per share aka the whole chart fails you because the earnings are getting reinvested into the technology companies that are taking over the world so the shiller p e ratio notice it took me a while to explain that it's much easier to go line up oh that's bad let's go go down real soon then actually understand what the data is the data is a lot harder to understand but when we look at it this way okay there's some logic to this now now it makes sense why the pe the shiller pe is behaving the way it's behaving but what about the buffett indicator i mean after all in 2001 warren buffett said the buffett indicator was one of the most reliable indicators that we could look at one of the best indicators that exists well the problem is the buffett indicator does not mean that warren buffett himself is sitting in the office right now going oh buffett feels bad about the market and feels overvalued about it no instead let's see how the buffett indicator is actually calculated so that way we can understand why this one might be broken all right so this is the buffett indicator how it's uh we'll go to how it's calculated here basically what you do is you take the total market cap so the value of all companies and you divide that by the gross domestic product of the united states and so here's some basic kind of conclusions if gdp goes down the denominator gets smaller the buffet indicator goes up so all of a sudden you have what looks like a more expensive market so if gdp goes down the buffett indicator should go up if the market cap not gaap if the market cap goes down and gdp stays the same so now the numerator goes down so valuations go down but gdp stays stable well then the ratio goes down and the market looks cheaper that's an opportunity right you're buying the same earnings for less expensive prices okay if the market i did it again if the market cap stays stable but gdp plummets so market cap stays stable but that number at the bottom plummets to like a big negative number then the buffett indicator will skyrocket and the market will look very much more expensive so this gives us a little bit of a background into the buffet indicator but what then is happening to gdp well let's go ahead and pull up the gdp chart and see what people reference when they talk about the gdp well folks here you go this is what people use when they talk about the gdp and they put this over here the u.s bureau of economic analysis oh my gosh it must be official jeez louise look at this we we had a gdp of between two to three percent you know we had a couple low quarters over here but oh my gosh negative 31.4 percent in the second quarter that's horrible yeah it was horrible but it's also very old data we're now in quarter number four probably that's problem number one we're in quarter four this is q2 data q3 data is about to come out but this number is actually manipulated see this number here the negative 31.4 percent reflects what's known as an annualized rate so what this number should actually be is a fall of about 7.8 percent but instead what they did is they took wow we had negative 7.8 percent gdp in the second quarter that's like that's like losing 31.4 percent gross domestic product in a year's time because all they did was take that number and multiply it by 4.
so this is 4x reality and it's 4x old reality why are we looking at data from q2 which what's q2 folks april may june are you seriously wanting to make your investment decisions based on april may and june data when we're in october we're in quarter four they're in quarter two with this data it doesn't make sense and i should align this better this this is q2 right and q4 is is like on the next page it's not it's not even charted yet okay so these are important things to consider all right so we know what the buffet indicator is we just looked up the gdp decline which even eight percent is a lot that's an issue but it's old news right it's old news so what happened then to the buffett indicator uh recently and and why is it that people are referring to the buffett indicator well let's go ahead and pull up the buffet indicator here it is this is the buffett indicator what you regularly see and uh what you see is this intense skyrocketing right over here uh it is at sort of the the peak level of where it's ever been and you know it's kind of been there for a while it's been toward sort of at peak for a while uh and there are two reasons for this so let me explain the first one which we just laid the groundwork for and then we'll explain the second one so the first reason you would see this kind of spike is because of the formula we just learned let's try something here for giggles let's say we have a number in the numerator of ten thousand and let's go ahead and divide that number by two okay that gives us five thousand equals five thousand all right let's say that's sort of our baseline now let's say we're going to take 10 000 and gdp plummets remember the bottom number was gdp we're now going to divide gdp by a tiny number like let's go with uh i don't know how about we go with 0.5 okay let's divide by .5 a tiny number boom 20 000.
so the buffett indicator skyrockets with that example gdp plummets to the negative in this case very tiny growth boom you have a very very large spike now that's just a really quick example to show the numerator denominator to see how the the formula should function how this chart should operate ah surprise surprise that's exactly what happened so like of course the buffett indicator is going to skyrocket when gdp declines the way it did that's no surprise but guess what's going to happen when third quarter gdp data comes out it's going to go right oops that's not the right marker it's going to go right back down because the third quarter gdp will come out it'll update the indicators boom chart broken oops i guess uh i guess that didn't work the way we thought it would right because it's analyzing the wrong thing but why have we had this historical trend of having you know the buffett indicator go up and up and up why are we still at all-time highs over like the last five years well this is actually because of globalization i'm telling you these this data goes deep how can you expect to take the market cap and divide it by gdp of the us and not realize that wait a minute the market cap is also affected by tesla sales in china for example right that's money that comes back to the us but isn't reflected in this indicator properly so it's it's messing up the numbers here okay but what about corporate debt so this is another thing that i keep hearing about is oh my gosh corporate debt is skyrocketing and this is what people do they show this chart that says oh my gosh non-financial so non-bank corporate debt is skyrocketing it's ballooning so they give you this nominal data here and they say look at that look at that inflection point right there well two problems here number one we know that most companies took on more debt to survive the pandemic it was a safety net you take on debt to build up cash to weather the storm so it's expected to see debt go up but the second problem and the bigger problem is the same problem i had with the other chart q2 data folks old news we are in the fourth quarter we can't let quarter two data drive our quarter four investment decisions so what can we tell about quarter four though or what do we even know about quarter three well what we do know about quarter three and quarter form is we can look at companies like chase and jp morgan and we can go over to their corporate sector of their of their earnings releases their press releases this is jp morgan's and so you can see this is where they set aside money for corporations and so what you'll actually see is in the second quarter if we come over here we see that jp morgan set aside almost 2 billion dollars just for corporate loan defaults but in quarter three they actually took away 81 million dollars they didn't set aside less money they took away money from money they set aside so they're actually less worried in quarter three substantially less worried in quarter three than they were in quarter two this is much more current data because this release is about seven days old actually it's probably more like four days old but oh well i think it came out on tuesday and today is sunday gotta check what day it is now because this is such a crazy environment when so all of a sudden what happens here when we put this information together and we finally start understanding what's going on we get something called perspective perspective is exactly what i enjoy teaching thoroughly in my real estate investing course my course on money stocks and taxation the psychology of money it's a really good one still in development but a lot of the content is already out the youtube course the psychology of making youtube videos and the tricks that i use for making youtube videos efficiently and getting the equipment together or the style in which i do them uh and and of course the do it yourself property management course all of these things are things that you can get in the link down below use that coupon code but folks really when we put all of this data together initially when we just look at these charts and lines we're instantly drawn to the conclusion that oh crap all of these lines went up previously and then they crashed down and that's bad the same thing's going to happen again which i'm not saying it's not going to happen again but what i am doing is i'm zooming into the data to make money decisions and when i zoom into the data i'm like well the information you presented me doesn't scare me in fact the information that i was presented with we just rationalized it makes sense it's not a problem those aren't issues now if you come to me with data and say hey kevin the three million people who were taking mortgage forbearance loans 2.9 million of them actually need it otherwise they will go bankrupt and they will get evicted or they'll have to you know they'll file they'll go through foreclosure because they're owners uh that would be more concerning to me those would be actual statistics but instead what do we keep hearing oh my gosh three million people are taking mortgage in our delinquent on their loans um yeah but how many of those are doing that optionally because it's another form of stimulus through the mortgage forbearance plans on unfortunately the desire to go deep on data is not great on youtube although what i will promise to do is continue to do my best to provide perspective when i can so if you're ever curious kevin what do you think about this what do you think about this send me a dm on instagram at me kevin you can even message me on twitter if you want at real meet kevin stay away from the scammers it's just the thing that i have linked at the beginning of my videos is my username that's it nothing else and folks uh we'll see in the next video thanks for watching you
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