저자: ParkevTatevosian,CFA · 외국인
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팔란티어 2024년 1분기 실적(5/6) preview. 현재 Hold 의견(이전 매수 추천 후 급등으로 하향). 미국 상업부문 매출 70% 성장, 고객 수 55% 증가, 조정 EPS 컨센서스 8센트. 선행 PER 56.75배로 과열, 45배 부근이면 매수 재검토 가능. 실적 발표 후 밸류에이션 조정 시 상향 가능성 언급.
다듬은 글
palente here is slated to report first quarter 2024 earnings results on May 6th so I'll preview what investors should look for when paler reports those numbers I'll also update my recommendation of paler stock as of right now I don't have paler stock rated as a buy I took it off my buy list a couple of uh I would say several weeks ago after the stock price soared by so much since my previous buy recommendation this is the second time that's happened where I recommended paler stock as a buy and the price increased by so much so fast I brought it back down to a hold recommendation so you're going to want to see if I'm recommending it as a buy going into the quarter as well so let's jump into the preview and let's answer these question paler stock they expected to deliver 8 cents per share in EPS in the current quarter that's up very slightly from 90 days ago where they thought paler was going to deliver 7 cents per share in earnings for the current quarter so Wall Street analysts that are following paler stock they haven't changed their outlook on this company at least very much for the last 90 days it's been relatively stable which has been one of the fewer surprising companies that has had a surprisingly stable earnings Outlook throughout the first quarter of 2024 now within palente earnings I'm going to look for specific segments within the company one area I'm looking for excellent growth is in its commercial Revenue segment everybody knows paler has strong Traction in the domestic in the US government business it's demonstrated its capabilities and it's entrenched itself as one of of the Premier providers of software to the US Military and other government institutions commercial Revenue had been harder for paler to get going but lately it's really accelerated this as you could see in the latest quarter 70% commercial Revenue growth in the US now overall commercial Revenue growth was only 32% so outside of the US it's having a harder time but in the US very strong commercial growth and I'm expecting that to continue with the success of its AIP boot camps I'm suspecting some of those boot camps to turn into Revenue generating opportunities and continued expansion of its ability to offer businesses its services for lower price remember paler is the best in class in terms of AI software services but the difficulty for paler has been to offer this service at a low enough cost that it can get wider adoption right because not everybody has the kind of budget like the US government right not all businesses have that budget only the largest businesses so if paler can make its service more affordable and still high quality then it can receive wider adoption among the business Community that's what I'm looking for that's what's going to unlock the massive value for paler stock investors is its expansion within business because there's worldwide there's much more opportunity in business in Enterprise and if paler can get the same amount of traction within business man the opportunities are huge for paler longer term so another thing I'm going to look for is another quarter of profitability on the bottom line for paler they've had five consecutive quarters of Gap profitability 93 million in net income in the most recent quarter I'm going to expect continued profitability on the bottom line for Palante tier especially because with higher interest rates the company can invest its roughly $3 billion in cash on the balance sheet it can earn five five and a qu% in super safe government bonds so that's going to help its profitability on the bottom line now the company delivered adjusted earnings per share of 8 cents in its most recent quarter that's what investor are looking for from Palante here in the current quarter as well we already talked about us commercial Revenue growing by 70% and US commercial customer count growing 55% year-over-year I want to see continued expansion in this segment even if it's not this large 70% and 55% is really strong if it can continue at that rate that would be great but even at a slower Pace would be excellent as well but it has a long Runway it only has 221 us commercial customers only 221 think of all the businesses in the US and it only has 221 of them as customers and that's because it's so expensive not because the quality is not there the quality is there the problem is that it's not affordable for many many businesses so as it can make itself more affordable it can expand into the opportunity segment and the boot camps are really helping because it's freeing up more capital from business if paler can demonstrate to these businesses what it can do the value it can add that can unlock a lot of value from business that may have previously thought they don't have the budget for this once they see the value that paler adds they might go looking for the budget they might go and borrow money so that they can invest in the paler service because they'll realize hey if we spend on paler then our business will improve and it'll leave us more money so it's worth it to go borrow money to buy talenter service right now because it'll give us such a competitive Advantage so that's something I'll be looking for too the total commercial contract value is another important metric I'll be looking for in the latest quarter 100 107% growth up to 343 million now remaining deal value grew 32% and 28% quarter over quarter this is the contracts that paler has already signed and the will eventually turn into Revenue once paler serves whatever they've contracted to offer sometimes these contracts can be for three years and so paler will recognize that Revenue as they serve that contract so they can't recognize all of it as Revenue immediately they have to do it slowly as they build out and develop that service now I highlighted that they had $3.7 billion in cash and short-term Investments that's going to allow the company to generate roughly 200 million in annual interest income because they can get about five five and a qu% on this money investing it in super safe US government bonds and so if they build on this cash balance that's more money they can earn on government bonds or they can use this cash strategically to offer customers better terms remember I said that paler is not very affordable cuz they're so expensive what if they use this this cash to offer their customers better terms and say you know what we understand that our service is expensive what if we offer you our service and you don't have to pay us back in six months that'll give you plenty of time to see the Improvement in your business from our service and generate revenue and profit from our service and that'll leave you more money to pay us back so because paler has a strong balance sheet it can afford to offer better terms to its customers and expand its customer opportunity set because it can use its balance sheet and give more favorable terms to customers I'll be looking to see if Management's deciding to do this to open more opportunity going forward now paler is not cheap right not only is the service not cheap but the stock is not cheap it's trading at a forward price to earnings of 56.75 near the most expensive it's been in the last year I've generally recommended pal ER stock as a buy when it has fallen below or near this forward price to earnings of 45 this has been the valuation I've been comfortable with with paler stock and I'm still targeting that range for a buy recommendation so here at 57 I'm still not recommending paler stock as a buy but I wouldn't be surprised if after the earnings results if I change my recommendation if the company comes out with better than expected earnings or if the the company's earnings release for some reason causes investors to sell the stock unjustifiably and it brings the valuation down closer to 45 I might upgrade the stock to a buy nevertheless the company is an excellent business it's done a great job expanding profitability expanding cash flow from operations broadening its reach to a wider customer set all of which it's positive the only thing is the valuation is already incorporating all of those positive aspects I would want a better entry point into paler stock which I might get after the earnings release
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