저자: 찰리멍거 · 외국인
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멍거는 향후 10년(2022~2032) 주식시장 수익률이 과거 10년보다 낮을 것이라고 본다. 주식시장 과열과 투기 열풍: 2009년 이후 S&P500은 2018년(-4%)을 제외하고 연간 상승했고, 무료 주식거래 앱 등으로 초보 투자자가 몰리는 현상이 과열 신호라고 지적한다. 피터 린치의 '칵테일파티 효과' 개념도 인용된다. 인플레이션과 실질수익률: 명목 수익률에서 물가상승률을 뺀 실질수익률이 낮아질 것이라 본다. 미국 인플레이션은 39년래 최고치를 기록했고, 양적완화와 재정적자가 원인으로 지목된다. 멍거는 대규모 통화 발행이 결국 문제를 일으킬 것이며 '불장난'에 가깝다고 경고한다. 독일 하이퍼인플레이션(1923년)을 사례로 든다. 버블 우려: 나스닥은 2000년 닷컴 버블 고점 이후 2015년에야 회복했다. 지금도 가격이 기업 본질가치를 앞서 있을 수 있다고 본다. 상위 5개 기업이 S&P500의 약 25%를 차지해 집중 리스크가 크다. 기업의 생존 리스크: 1989년 시총 상위 20개 기업 중 2021년까지 남은 기업은 없었다. 기업은 생물처럼 흥망이 있으며, 현재 빅테크도 영속을 보장받지 못한다. 버크셔의 BNSF 철도처럼 기술로 대체되기 어려운 해자 자산을 선호한다고 밝힌다. 투자 조언: 안전마진(margin of safety)을 중시하고, 어렵거나 자신의 역량 밖인 것은 피하며(too hard pile), 자신의 능력 범위(competence circle)를 아는 것이 가장 중요하다고 강조한다. 이 영상은 개별 종목 가격 목표를 제시하지 않으며, 대상 자산 중 명시적 1~3개월 방향 예측은 없다. 장기 전망(10년 저수익)만 있다.
다듬은 글
it is no secret that the stock market is at all-time highs this current bull market has been the longest and strongest in the history of the stock market and this has people thinking that the good times and strong stock market returns will last forever charlie munger who has never been one to be afraid to speak his mind says that this is maybe not actually the case and warns that the next decade won't look as good as the past decade make sure to stick around till the end of the video because charlie has some important advice for investors and how to best navigate the next 10 years in the stock market let's listen to what he has to say you expect the next 10 years to have lower returns in the equity markets than the last 10.
it doesn't give us an idea why the answer is yes could you give us a hint as to why that might guess because so many people are in it and the frenzy is so great and the systems of management the reward systems are so foolish that that i don't think it's going to work at all i don't think i i think the returns will go down yes in real terms the returns will be lower one of the first things charlie munger says is that everyone is trying to get into the stock market this is because ever since the great financial crisis the stock market has pretty much gone straight up check out these annual return figures of the s p 500.
26 in 2009 15 in 2010 2 in 2011 16 in 2012 32 in 2013 13 in 2014 1 in 2015 12 in 2016 22 in 2017 negative four percent in 2018 31 in 2019 18 in 2020 and 26 so far in 2021. since 2009 there has only been one negative year in the s p 500 and that was only a four percent decline this over decade long stretch of stock returns in the stock market has created what charlie munger refers to as a frenzy everyone wants to get into the stock market because they think it is easy money just look at free stock trading apps like robinhood that encourage people with little knowledge of investing to start actively trading in the stock market instead of just buying great high quality companies and holding them for the long term another well-respected investor peter lynch refers to this concept as the cocktail party effect when lynch was at a party with his wife and a lot of people would come up to him wanting to know what stocks to buy he took that as a sign that the stock market was potentially overvalued even worse was when people would come up to him and tell him what stocks he should be buying when that happened he knew that the stock market was too high and due for a decline it seems like we are seeing a lot of that today by the number of people saying that warren buffett is washed up because he won't buy tech stocks trading at p e ratios of 300.
the other thing that i want to draw your attention to and i don't know if you caught it because it was pretty subtle was that munger said that real returns would be lower the real return of the stock market is what the return is after factoring in the impact of inflation for those of you that don't know inflation is simply the rise in the price of goods and services did your grandparents ever tell you how when they were younger they could pay for a gallon of milk with five cents but now it is three dollars this is inflation at work the price of goods and services tends to increase over time making every dollar of yours capable of purchasing less goods this means that if the stock market returned ten percent in a year but inflation was six percent your real return would be four percent or if the stock market returned six percent in a year but inflation was also six percent your real return would be zero or even worse if the stock market return was four percent and inflation was six percent your real return would be negative too by specifically referring to real returns monger is pointing out that inflation is likely going to be higher over the next decade so far this does seem to be the case as inflation recently hit a 39-year high this inflation is in large part due to the united states government printing money or to use a fancy finance term quantitative easing here's what charlie munger had to say on this what do you think of the combinations of quantitative easing and large fiscal deficit and where are they going to lead us well there i've got a very simple answer and that is it's one of the most interesting questions anybody could ask and we're in very uncharted waters we have nobody has gotten by with the kind of money printing we're doing now for a very extended period without some trouble and i i think we're we're very near the edge of playing with fire one thing i have noticed that a lot of successful investors have in common is that they love studying history and charlie munger is no exception throughout history there are countless examples of countries that have printed too much money and were left with disastrous consequences one popular example is germany in the 1920s germany was already suffering from high levels of inflation due to the effects of world war one and the increase in government debt workers in the country went on strike and in order to pay the workers the government simply printed more money this flood of money led to hyperinflation as the more money was printed the more prices rose inflation got so out of control that a loaf of bread which cost 250 marks in january 1923 had risen to 200 billion marks at the peak of hyperinflation in november 1923.
as i'm sure you can imagine this caused a lot of unrest within the country and many historians credit this hyperinflationary period as one of the root causes of the second world war now charlie munger is by no means saying things will get that bad in america but what he's saying is that when a government prints a lot of money things don't tend to end well inflation is something we as investors need to keep in mind because it will affect the real return we receive from the stock market another thing that will affect our return over the next decade is the current price of stocks obviously if stock prices are too high future prospective returns will be lower so this brings us to the million dollar or in the case of charlie munger billion dollar question are we in a bubble is it nasdaq in a bubble well i i nobody knows when bubbles are going to blow up but just because it's nasdaq doesn't mean it'll have another run like this one very quickly again this has been unbelievable again there's never been anything quite like it if you stop to think about it think what apple is worth compared to john d rockefeller's old oil empire it's been the most dramatic thing that's almost ever happened in the entire world history of finance if you've been following this channel you know i am a big believer of fundamental investing this means that the value of a stock is based on the cash the underlying business will produce in the way of profits over the lifetime of the business however sometimes the stock market gets ahead of itself and the price for stocks is higher than the true value of the underlying company based on the cash the business will produce to show what i'm talking about let's look at the nasdaq which is an index of mostly tech companies this index had a high of around 4 800 in march of 2000 at the peak of the dot-com boom investors became over-optimistic about the prospects for these new tech companies looking back this is one of the biggest bubbles in modern finance it took until the year 2015 until the nasdaq finally returned the level seen at the peak of the dotcom bubble a long 15 years for investors who invested at the peak of the bubble until they finally broke even on their investment think about how much companies within the nasdaq grew over that 15-year period companies like apple amazon and other high growth tech companies this is because the nasdaq's price level has gotten so far ahead of the underlying value of the companies within the index the current level of the stock market has some investors worried that again prices in the stock market have gone ahead of the underlying fundamentals of the businesses another important thing that needs to be discussed is just how big the world's largest companies have gotten believe it or not the five largest companies in america account for around 25 of the entire value of the s p 500 index that means for every dollar an investor puts in a market cap weighted s p 500 index fund 25 cents of that is going into the stock of the five largest companies apple microsoft alphabet amazon and more recently tesla this means that a lot of the returns over the next 10 and 20 years in the stock market will be based on the performance of these companies however charlie's quick to point out the success of these companies is far from guaranteed here's what he had to say from the companies of america behave more like biology than they do anything else in biology all the individuals die and so do all the species it's just a question of time and that's pretty well what happens in the economy too all the things that were really great when i were young have receded enormously and new things have come up and some of them started to die and that is what the long-term investment climate is and it does make it very interesting look at what's died all the department stores all the newspapers u.s steel john d rockefeller's standard oil the pale shadow of his former self you know it's just like biology so they have their little power they have their little time and then then they get clobbered it was just a few years ago when a big topic of conversation in the finance community was which company would be the first to break the trillion dollar market cap threshold in just the past few years multiple companies have shot past that 1 trillion market cap level and are now even approaching 2 trillion and even 3 trillion apple is at 2.8 trillion dollars microsoft is at 2.4 trillion dollars alphabet parent company of google is at 1.9 trillion dollars amazon is at 1.7 trillion dollars tesla is at 945 billion dollars and facebook is at 930 billion dollars but just because these companies have dominant positions now it doesn't mean it will be like that forever listen to what charlie had to say on this topic well some people try to get on the cutting edge of change so they're destroying other people instead of being destroyed themselves and those are the googles and the apples and so forth other people like me do some of that joining things like apple and and in some ways we just try and avoid big change that we think is likely to hurt us and so berkshire for instance owns the burlington northern railroad you can hardly think of a more old-fashioned business than a railroad business but who in hell's ever going to create another trunk railroad so it's a very good asset for us so and we've made that success not by conquering change but by avoiding it now burlington northern itself has been quite clever at adapting technology to their railroad imagine the good luck of being able to take an existing railroad and double deck all the trains and raise the heights of the tunnels a little and so forth and all of a sudden you've got twice the capacity at very little incremental cost which is what that railroad has done so that is a everybody uses new technology but it it really helps to have a position that almost can't be taken away by technology how else are you going to carry goods from the port of los angeles to chicago except on our railroad to really drive home the point charlie made take a look at this chart that warren buffett talked about at the most recent berkshire hathaway annual meeting on the left it shows the 20 largest companies by market cap in march of 1989.
on the right it shows the largest 20 companies by market cap in march of 2021. how many of the companies from 1989 made the list again in 2021 not a single one in 1989 there were companies like exxon mobil general electric ibm philip morris and merck these companies all had extremely dominant positions in 1989 and most people would have guessed their dominant position would remain forever however that wasn't the case now on the list in 2021 we have amazing companies like apple microsoft amazon and even berkshire hathaway the conglomerate controlled by warren buffett and charlie munker the important question to consider is how many of the companies on the list in 2021 will be on the list 30 years from now in 2051.
even better yet how many of these companies will be on the list even 10 years from now in 2031. as mentioned earlier with these large companies making up such a large portion of the s p 500 if they do struggle it could hinder the return performance for investors because such a large portion of the average investor's portfolio is invested in these large companies and finally charlie has some advice for investors and how they can succeed over the next decade i spent a lifetime trying to avoid my own mental biases hey i rub myself i rub my own nose and my own mistakes b i try and keep it simple and fundamental as much as i can and i i like the engineering concept of a margin of safety i'm i i'm a very blocking and tackling kind of a thinker i just try and avoid being stupid so and i have a way of handling a lot of problems i put them on what i call my too hard pile and i just leave them there i'm not trying to succeed in my too hard pile what i would say is the single most important thing if you want to avoid a lot of stupid errors is knowing where you're competent and where you aren't knowing the edge of your own competency and that's very hard to do because the human mind naturally tries to make you think you're way smarter than you are so there you have it make sure to give this video a like because a ton of work goes into making them and i truly appreciate all the support you guys give thanks for watching and i'll speak to you again soon
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