저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 하워드 막스는 시장 급락 가능성을 경계하되 공포에 휩쓸리기보다 리스크를 소폭 줄이라는 중립~신중 입장이다. 탄핵 이슈: 탄핵은 사실상 예상된 사건이라 시장에 큰 영향은 없고, 상원 3분의 2 유죄 확정 가능성도 낮아 우려하지 않는다고 봤다. 대선 전망: 시장은 트럼프를 친기업 대통령으로 보고 상승했으므로 재선 시 긍정적일 수 있다. 반면 워런 등 반기업 성향 후보가 당선되면 시장 반발이 있을 것이라고 봤다. 막스는 대선 결과를 예측하지 않는 편이라고 강조했다. 가격 조정 가능성: 막스는 특정 수치의 조정(25% 등)을 예측하지 않았으며, 과거 대선 전 시장 예측이 빗나갔던 사례를 들어 예측 자체를 불신한다고 말했다. 자산운용 업계: 패시브 전환은 액티브 펀드가 성과 부진과 고수수료 문제를 보였기 때문이며, 합리적 시장에서는 수익을 내는 상품만 보상받는다고 봤다. 비상장 시장: 위워크 기업가치 470억 달러는 특수 상황으로 보며, 시장이 이를 하향 조정한 것은 건강한 신호라고 평가했다. 사이클 전망: 현재 주가는 과거 평균보다 높은 밸류에이션이며 기대수익률은 낮다고 봤다. 다만 닷컴·서브프라임 같은 버블이 현재는 아니라고 진단했다. 리스크 관리: 3년 전이나 6년 전만큼 리스크를 떠안을 필요는 없으며, 이익을 봤다면 일부 차익을 실현해 리스크를 줄이라고 권고했다. 전량 매도는 권하지 않았다. 출연자 전망: 시장 하락을 확신하지는 않으나 최근 몇 년보다 리스크를 줄여야 한다는 신중론이다.
다듬은 글
one of the people I just sat down with is Oaktree's howard marks the famed investor of Corson I began by asking him whether he was fearful of a market sell-off if we did see a presidential impeachment well number one impeachment shouldn't come as a surprise I think it's a foregone conclusion and number two given that if we assume that the market is intelligence then it shouldn't have an impact because if it is if it's a foregone conclusion today then when it's voted in in a week or two and it doesn't come as a surprise if it if it's in line with expectations things that happen in line with activation should not have a proud profound impact on the level of the market but conviction is something that you'd be concerned about I'm not concerned about that because I don't think it'll happen you know they need 20 Republican votes to convict in the Senate and they don't have one and I can't imagine what's going to change in particular I think that all the evidence is on the table so how are you gonna change 20 minds that said on the political front the 2020 election of course is only a year or so away but the front front of our minds for sure what's your take on the impact that might have on on markets well you know market wise it all depends on whether we have a president who's considered pro or anti business mm-hmm the market took off after Trump's election because he was judged to be pro market and he has behaved Perl business so if he's re-elected people will continue to see him as pro-business they'll breathe the sigh of relief that he was reelected and and that'll probably be healthy for the market in this case it's not preordained like like the impeachment I think that that there is uncertainty as to the outcome if he's not elected then the question is who is Bloomberg would be judged as pro-business and the market would like that Biden moderate probably not a strong reaction Warren who certainly comes out as being anti business anti-wall Street I think that hold your hat Lee Koopmans at 25% sell off in that sense does that equate to hold your hat in your mind well look a week before Donald Trump's election there were two things we were sure of Hillary would win and if Trump won the market would collapse so Donald won and the market went up and that tells me we don't know what's going to happen so I don't I try not to make forecasts and I tend not to believe forecast including my own but I do think that that there would be an adverse reaction to a progressive president when we look at your broader industry there's been a lot of price pressure and traditional long-only asset management with that with the growth of indexes also more recently in the broker price wars that we've witnessed do you think that kind of price pressure is coming to the credit space to the private equity space a lot depends on how it performs you know basically the people switched from active to passive management in equity funds because active wasn't working and it wasn't earning its high fees that's why the fees have come down I I think we're still in a rational market where things that make money for people will be compensated things that don't make money for people will not well when we consider we work as an example of a private market campaign private market valuations do consider that as broadly actually representing a bubble in private market valuations or is it more of a special situation I think it was a special situation because I think that that valuation of forty seven billion dollars earlier this year was made by one one buyer and if that buyer miscalculated I don't think that's typical of broad trends I think it's very interesting to see that the you know the market one of the roles of the market is to serve as a vigilante and to reject or down price when it should the the fact that the public market rejected the private market valuation on we work I think was a very healthy development and it shows that the market is value sensitive that's a plus I know it's very hard to predict when the current cycle will end but do you ever think about how big the fallout will be this time round when it does end do you think that the sell-off when it comes will be bigger than a 809 or or well look if you've been around twenty years you may have been around twenty years I am NOT always investing you've seen two bubbles Tech and subprime and two crashes and you may tend to think as may your viewers that that's it bubbles and crashes but the truth is we have ups and downs we have bulls and bears and they're not all as profound as bubbles and crashes I don't see that we're in a bubble this time certainly nothing comparable 2:07 I don't think we're going to have a market decline comparable things are elevated but not crazily so but where we stand today worth taking a little bit of risk off the table well it depends on from what but I mean look everybody's made a lot of money the economic expansion and the bull market or old valuations are above average prospective returns are low there's a lot of uncertainty in the world and it strikes me that one should not have as much risk as one did three years ago or six years ago you've made a lot of money take some off the table that is not to say it's going down you know if I thought it was going down which I don't know how I would reach that conclusion I would say sell at all but I I never say that and you it's impossible to say that but I think there are reasons to have less risk going forward then you have had in recent years so taking a little bit less risk today perhaps than in recent years though all things considered relative to the last three or four investor letters he sent out I actually thought he was a little more constructive than perhaps he could have been his comments on we work perhaps an indication of that which I thought also was pretty interesting you
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